Sunday, 8 December 2013

NIFTY and BANKNIFTY

BJP and Modi had one of the brightest day. Indian market will cheer the outcome as BJP is perceived as a political party to provide market friendly Governance.
China export data was exceptionally good and nowadays markets zoom after Chinese data.
US markets were up on Friday.
Singapore NIFTY closed at all time high on Friday

In short all set for at least 150 points gap up opening on Monday. Usually Indian markets do over react and it will so on Monday too. 6420-6460 is the resistance zone, so keep selling 6500 and 6600 CALL options. If NIFTY goes near 6420 then 6500 CALL will be available at around 100-103 tomorrow.

NIFTY 6500 CALL
Sell 6500 CALL between 90-105.
Use your 30-40% capital to average earlier contracts of 6500 CALLs.

NIFTY 6600 CALL
Sell 6600 CALL between 60-65.
This could be very safe as there are not many trading days left and NIFTY may consolidate at 6400-6500 levels for rest of the month or would correct marginally for all time high levels due to profit booking.

Finally anything can happen in market.It would turn down when it is most unexpected and everybody is bullish on market. One must not forget just three months ago all stalwarts were advising clients to get out of market as NIFTY went below 5200 from 6100 in just 6 trading sessions. Though it is remote possibility now, one can not ignore it to happen. After this election outcome there is no new trigger and IIP data and inflation numbers are going to drive the market. The irony is on one hand if macro data is good market will react positively, but it will be based on deliverable of present Government on the other hand market is giving thumps up for possibility of change in government in April/May.

It will be interesting to see what would happen if P Chdambaram is announced as next PM candidate by Sonia. Would market still go up? Are political parties deciding PM candidates looking at markets where only 3% Indian population is involved?

There is high possibility that date of elections will be delayed as far as possible and it would create an anxiety among traders. Congress would now get time to device strategy and  dampen Modimania.

Nevertheless, purpose of this blog is not to make political comments but to find out risk free option strategies. So all this suggests NIFTY could stay below 6500-6600 and it is safe to keep selling 6500-6600 CALLs.

And,
If NIFTY to be corrected fall be lead by BANKNIFTY. Very soon interest rates will be hiked. BN can correct then by 1000 points in few sessions.
Buy 11200 PUT of BANKNIFTY at around 52-56


Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss


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