DLF

FIIs sold again in cash but bought huge in F & O segment.
NIFTY has shown resilience to succumb to pressure again around 7920, and resistance around 8040. One can still be long till NIFTY does not go below 7840.
At the same time do not do any active buying unless NIFTY crosses 8040-8050.
Hold BankNIFTY 15500 CALL if not booked profit earlier.
Book profit in BANKINDIA 230 PUT around 18-19, if not booked earlier.

One may see some upside in early session because of lot of aggressive PUT writing. But since FIIs are selling, dollar index is at all time high, pressure on Rupee might not allow NIFTY to sustain at higher level.

BANKNIFTY:
It might show gap up opening. OI additions in PUT and some long liquidation in ITM  CALLs. This suggests slight strength during early hours if global cues are reasonably positive.

DLF:
It has touched trend-line. If it breaks it further, there won't be any support. If NIFTY corrects by 5% from here, DLF could touch August 2013 low ie 120. Below 120, it could go anywhere.

One can trade this way in following ways:

1. Most risky sell Future unlimited loss and unlimited profit potential. Use strict SL of  2% OR
2. Less risky Buy 135 PUT around 2, maximum loss Rs. 4000/- OR
3. More safe: Buy 135 PUT around 2 and Sell 130 PUT around 1.40. Maximum loss Rs. 1200 and maximum profit potential Rs. 7800/-

Disclaimer: This blog does not take responsibility of your profit/loss.

Buy Bank NIFTY 15500 CALL and at the same time buy 230 PUT of bank of India

NIFTY is still in down trend and one should not venture in to buying unless NIFTY convincingly crosses 8040-8050 to resume up trend.

FIIs bought yesterday after a long gap, will they continue to do so?
Election month backed by festival season, could see some buying and add lot of volatility due to election. Do not enter in to any naked positions or work with our usual CALL sell strategies unless very confident.

BN appeared to be weak ahead of RBI policy. But you would notice smart money holders are tilted towards positive side in BN.
Lot of addition in 15500 and 15600 PUTs as compared to 15500 CALLs. It means PUT writing is substantially more than CALL writing and this could be positive sign for BN at least for today!

RSI is in oversold region. Trading just above the channel.

So buy BN 15500 CALL

At the same time Bank of India is very weak and could go down sub 200 levels.

See lot of OI addition in CALLs.

Stock may slide down in next one week.

Based on this study, till this weekend strategy could be as follows.
Buy Bank NIFTY 15500 CALL and at the same time buy 230 PUT of bank of India.
Total investment would be around 15000/- Keep booking profits at appropriate levels at least 2%-3% in combined strategy or exit on Thursday EOD.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

LT strategy

S & P revised rating and NIFTY bounced back from 7840. It was precise number for EW count wave 4. It should not have gone below 7840 for valid EW count 4. It is one of the cardinal rule in EW principle that wave 4 should never enter in to territory of wave 1 in trending mode.

FII sold huge and DII bought in huge quantities. This could be risky for bulls. But still Bulls can maintain their positions with SL 7835 in cash.
In spite of big move on Friday afternoon, look at option table. That rise was used by Bulls to liquidate long positions in beginning of the series itself. This is bit unusual. This indicates all shorts which were squeezed last week could find early opportunity to exit due to S & P rating revision.

One can see lot of additions in CALLs and liquidation of PUTs.

RBI policy next week, could be non-event, RBI will not do any major change in interest rate.
So in spite of EW count, I am not comfortable in buying unless NIFTY crosses 8050 in cash. Due to global cues one could see positive opening.

NAMO speech (any speech, be it in front of national audience, international audience or even to children.) generally would bring excitement in the market and this could take rally forward by another 70-80 points on Monday.

One could exit long positions if any around NIFTY 8030-8035.
Enter in longs only if hourly close above 8050. If that happens keep accumulating 8200 CALL buy contracts.

LT:
LT is in general down trend.

Option table shows range between 1400-1600 for this series.
Safe trade could be straddle in LT.
Sell 1650 CALL around 10 and sell 1350 PUT around 10-11. This will gain around 5000/- in your trading account with an investment of Rs. 80000/- as margin money.
More safe could be to sell just 1650 CALL around 10.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

              

Buy NIFTY 7700 PUTs

NIFTY has entered in to new series with weak cues.
Change in OI with increased open interest at 7900 PUT strike price, indicates 7900 PUT buying by option traders. But still we are in over-all uptrend. Any time NIFTY could see reversal, but not showing such sign presently and hence don't buy anything now.

As per chart, double top formation could take NIFTY to 7650.

Buy 7700 PUT around 35-40 and keep booking small profits during the day. No point in holding the position as reversal can be seen any time. A good advertisement of NAMO speech in US, could create cheer in traders.
But now general trend is down. FIIs are selling in cash, so at least for the moment be with the trend and buy PUTs.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Buy OTM CALL of RELINFRA

NIFTY is in down trend. FII sold huge again in cash and in F & O.
However, positive global cue could see gap up opening. Whether it will sustain above 8050? I don't think option traders feel that confident of sustaining above 8050 looking at below table.

Lot of unwinding of 8050 PUT and at the same time addition of 8100 CALLs. Resistance is still around 8100+ 20 and support is around 8000 + 20.
Analysing option table, tomorrow's range could be 7980-8065.

One can see  PUTs are added more so far, suggests there is lot of bullish tone for the next month.

Strong support according to chart is around 7920. See blue spot.

No new trade in NIFTY tomorrow.

RELINFRA

Stock is in clear down trend.
But it could show dead cat bounce tomorrow.
Look at hammer pattern. So it seems lot of buying interest emerged today.

In OI you would notice lot of CALL unwinding than PUT unwinding.
Stock can rally up to channel at least ie 668-670.

Buy OTM CALL, ie 660 CALL around 1.00-1,50, invest just Rs. 500-600. If trade works it could fetch handsome profit. This is mere lottery trade.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Low risk bear spread strategy in NIFTY

Last few days FIIs were selling. OI table analysis, IVs had gone up indicated PUT buying for hedge long bets.

You may notice first time in the series lot of unwinding in 8250 to 8000 PUTs and equally high addition of CALLs. This signals bearishness creeping in.
But still Modi factor is around. No one can hold hand of BJP in event management. All our earlier PMs have gone to US earlier, but the way Modi visit and news (even what he will eat or fast etc) are being managed, market will find some or other reason soon to bounce back.
But one should wait before buying. See chart.

7940-7920 level (blue spot) is very important for bulls. It should not be broken for up trend to be intact or there could be further downside in near future.

Bear spread strategy in NIFTY:
Buy 8000 PUT of NIFTY around 24 and sell 7950 PUT around 12.
Maximum loss per lot will be  about Rs. 600/- and profit potential Rs. 1900/-

Or one can buy only 7950 PUT around 11-12. Maximum loss Rs. 600/-, and unlimited profit potential.
This is really low risk trade and one can enter in to trade with multiple lots depending upon profit gained so far in this month. If your profit this month does not permit to take the risk, do not enter in this trade.

Book profit in DLF
Book profit in AUROPHARMA


Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

Buy 8000 PUTs of December expiration and 8400 CALLs of October expiration.

OI table analysis:
Lot of addition of PUTs in 8150 contract it is trading around 30, so NIFTY should take strong support around 8115-8120. Only huge gap down (open below 8070) will negate this view, otherwise NIFTY will try and regain 8115-8120 level very quickly in opening session.
Though lot of PUT additions, IVs have gone up and this could be primarily PUT buying for hedging long positions.

Still support at 8000 level and resistance at 8200 level.

No new trade in NIFTY tomorrow. FIIs sold today in slightly larger quantity. India VIX is at all time low. Generally IVs are going down.
To take advantage buy 8000 PUT of December expiration around 100-110. Any negative outcome of election could take NIFTY near 7500. So worth investing Rs. 6000/-
To cover the risk, buy 8400 CALL of October expiration. One can buy few lots more of 8400 CALLs of October expiration than 8000 PUT of December expiration. If NIFTY goes above 8180 before expiry, first week of October should take NIFTY near 8350. That should be the good time to book profit in 8400 CALLs.

Book profit in AUROPHARMA.


Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

Buy NIFTY and sell AUROPHARMA

One way of analyzing OI table:
More than 850,000 PUT sell contracts added between 8100 and 8150. This means these many contract holders felt on Friday that NIFTY may not go down below 8100.
Maximum OI is at 8000 PUT ie around 86 lacs. So 86 lacs contract holders stood in the market with their conviction that NIFTY will not go below 8000 in near future or at least before expiry.
IVs have gone down with increase in OI, this indicates contracts were dominated by PUT writers.

About 11 lacs CALL writers between 8100-7900 exited on Friday worried about more upside, however 21 lacs CALL writers added positions between  8150-8300. So a big trading community thinks NIFTY would be resisted in this range. More than 10 lacs CALLs were written of 8200 CALL option contract on Friday and in simple term, on Friday, many traders had conviction that NIFTY will not cross 8200 in near future.
Maximum OI is also at 8200 CALL, so 8200-8220 should act as good resistance for the series.

NIFTY shut shop around 8115 but you would notice lot of CALL writers exited from 8100 CALL whereas almost equal number of PUTs added. See black box in above table. So it is clear NIFTY, even if it could open gap down, it is very difficult for NIFTY to go substantially below 8100 for the major part of the day. Price of 8100 PUT is around 28, that means 8070-8075 should be good support as per the option table.

For the day, just stay long in NIFTY.
Buy multiple lots of 8150 CALLs around 25-30 and book profit between 42-45-51. SL 12/-. Keep an eye on your brokerage and ensure you are making profit and not your broker.
Book profit only during the day and don't carry forward positions because as per option table good support around 8000 and NIFTY might settle somewhere near 8000 at the expiry of this series. FIIs are selling (net sellers) in cash, though in very small quantity.

Auropharma:
Generally stock options are not traded to an extent OI analysis should give any meaningful results. But since AUROPHARMA undergoing FDA audit and there could be possibility of some negative remarks. This stock might go down.

Support at 800 and resistance at 900. But lot of CALLs added between 880-920. So this stock may not go above 920 immediately. Some smart money exited between 840- 880.

So their could be high probability one could see this stock near 840. It gave a black candle with high volume. As per graph it could touch 830 very soon.

Bearspread strategy:
Buy 860 PUT around 19/- and sell 820 PUT around 7/-.
Maximum profit potential 14000/- maximum loss could be around 6000/-
One can reduce loss by selling 920 CALL around 4-5.

Risk takers could buy 840 PUT of AUROPHARMA around 12, maximum loss could be Rs. 6000/-. But one can book profit immediately tomorrow around 18-20 and need not wait till expiry.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Sell 8000 NIFTY CALL between 225-240

Many times Option Table analysis gives an indication where the smart money is moving.
It was clear yesterday from option table analysis that lot of PUTs are being added and downside is temporarily cemented. This view was supported by candle stick pattern and NIFTY went up.

See addition of PUTs today from 7900 to 8200. It will be extremely impossible for NIFTY to see any meaningful correction unless there is very adverse news from Scotland/EU.
Unwinding of CALLs from 7800-8100 making very clear that Bulls taking back seat. Resistance (though minor due to lot of unwinding) still at 8200.

If NIFTY goes near 8200 before close of the day around 3 PM, sell NIFTY 8000 CALL, it could be trading at around 225-240 by then.

FIIs did not buy in cash segment in their usual huge quantity (in fact they were net sellers though marginal)  in spite of spectacular rally today. A lot of buying in Future and Option by them, and they must be hedging their bets. And if this is the case NIFTY might correct till 8000 before expiry.




Disclaimer:  This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

No new trades

NIFTY bounced back as expected from support. It formed Harami and Inside day candle. Gap up opening will confirm the pattern. Buy NIFTY if it crosses 8040 in cash.

NAMO wave is still in market, though it is waning in rest of the country, no business news channels or business news papers are giving enough coverage for BJP defeat and helping to keep sentiments high.
FIIs again bought in cash though in small quantities.

Option table suggest support strengthens at 7900. You will notice lot of aggressive PUT writing in 8000-7800 range, so 8000 level perhaps is cemented for the month. Lot of unwinding in 7900-8100 CALLs indicates bears are running away and giving rein to bulls very soon.

 
Up-move is intact in spite of FOMC meeting in Washington DC.

Hold IFCI PUT and DLF strategy, even if market opens gap up tomorrow. Exit both trades if NIFTY surpasses 8050 convincingly.

Book profit in NIFTY 8100 CALL buy and 7900 PUT buy strategy if you get chance during early morning trading hours based on FOMC meeting outcome.

No new trades.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Buy 7800 PUT around 10/- and 8100 CALL around 15-20

NIFTY:
Cracked below 7950.
It is residing on major support around 7920. One should see good bounce back and probable gap up opening. RSI is in oversold region.

FIIs were net sellers in cash but bought huge in Future. DII bought too at lower levels. OI analysis one could see major support around 7800 and major resistance around 8200. Interestingly no unwinding seen in 7800 and 7900 PUTs, on the contrary increase in OI seen at 7800 and 7900, this could be an addition of  PUT sell contracts and will ensure NIFTY to  regain 8000 again immediately.

Lot of addition in 8000 CALL with Rs. 42 premium could indicate resistance in 8042 level. If NIFTY crosses 8040, lot of unwinding in 8000 CALL could take NIFTY to new highs. As per attached chart also NIFTY could give fresh breakout above 8048.
Do not dare to short NIFTY and keep booking profit in CALL sell positions. This is the golden opportunity to exit CALL sell positions for the month.


FED meeting this week will decide further trend in NIFTY, if rate is hiked by FED one could see mega drop in index, 7840 could be big support, if that is taken away NIFTY will fall like anything.
Those who would like to bet on FED could buy 7800 PUT around 10/- and 8100 CALL around 15-20. Small investment, could become zero, but if this month's profit permits it is worth taking risk of about Rs. 1500/-.

IFCI

Hold. It could go to 29.5 and option could be above 1.50 in next few trading sessions. This could provide good profit booking opportunity.

DLF
It could go till 147-149 in cash.
Worth holding strategy for next couple of days.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

SUNPHARMA

First time lot of unwinding seen at 8000 and 7900 PUTs.  FIIs were net sellers in cash yesterday, though in very small quantity. Heavy selling by FIIs in future segment.
Still the highest open interest in 8000 PUTs indicates very strong support around 8000.
Book profit in 7700 CALL sell positions.

No new trade in NIFTY.

 One might see buying in NIFTY around 8000-8020 level. RSI (9 D) would be near 30 today, if NIFTY goes near 8000 and could experience bounce back.

SUNPHARMA

SUNPHARMA is facing FDA audit issues and stock may stumble further up to 760 within a day or two. They might receive warning letter from US FDA.
Though technically this should not affect much to the SUNPHARMA's business in US, trading community does not like to hear such news and share prices usually drop momentarily.

How to trade this view? There are multiple ways listed below in order of increasing risk.

1. Sell SUNPHARMA 860 CALL around Rs. 4/4.50.
2. Buy 770 PUT around 10/-
3. Buy 790 PUT between 18-20 and sell 760 PUT around 8. Maximum risk about Rs. 6000/-, profit potential 21000/-
4. Sell FUTURE with SL around 817 in cash.

Ranbaxy:
SUNPHARMA and Ranbaxy would go hand in hand for obvious reasons. But Ranbaxy is more of a trader's stock. Good volume in F& O.

It is trading within channel yet. RSI is near oversold region, so technical bounce back could be expected.
Those who would like to take bare position/(s) in SUNPHARMA could hedge the bet by buying Ranbaxy CALLs.
For example if one sells SUNPHARMA Future and if trade shows loss in first 30 minutes of entering in to the trade then it is advisable to buy 620 CALL of Ranbaxy and minimize the risk.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

NIFTY, HDFC and TCS strategies.

Again bad set of macro numbers viz IIP and CIP. But all analysts are convinced it is just an outlier and one should not pay too much attention to these numbers! According to trading community, our country is in right hands of Modi and Co and they will do everything right!! FIIs continued buying (net buyers) again in cash after being light for only couple of days.
This is a second set of macro showing nothing is drastically changing yet and NDA has to take some concrete steps to improve our economy.  Two weeks ago you will recall, CAD had broaden. Had this would have happened in UPA regimen, NIFTY would have fallen by at least 100 points, however, NIFTY went up by 100 points next day of CAD broadening! One might not see that urgency tomorrow but it is clear NIFTY is in no mood of showing any correction. It might not go below 8020-8050 at the same time crossing 8250 on upper-side before this month expiry also looks bit difficult.

Rupee is depreciating, it will be difficult to control inflation (in spite of lower oil prices) in near term if rates are not adjusted to curb the inflation, but Government and RBI might not take unpopular decisions till Diwali and till Assembly elections at least.

Stick to a strategy of selling PUT 7900 and selling CALL 8300.

HDFC:

Hold HDFC 1060 CALL.

Book profit when it would go near 1075 in cash in next couple of days. It could go to 1090-1093 in quick time. So part book at 1075 range and hold for next target 1090.

If unfortunately HDFC goes below 1030 in cash then exit from 1060 CALL position at marginal loss.

TCS:

TCS could benefit due to rupee depreciation. It has corrected reasonably recently and one can expect fresh buying near support level (see chart for demand level).

Bull spread strategy

Buy 2650 CALL near 26-28 and Sell 2700 CALL around 13-14.

Total risk will be about Rs. 1600/- per strategy, and profit potential of Rs. 4500/-.

To keep credit balance in trading account, one can sell couple of CALLs of 8300, which is trading near Rs. 14/-

If one could able to enter in one TCS 2650 CALL buy, one 2700 CALL sell and two 8300 NIFTY CALL sell contracts then it is very low risk, practically zero risk strategy with an investment of about Rs. 80,000/- in margin money. At end of the month or when TCS would go near 2700, profit could be above Rs. 5000/- to 6000/-. An investment period is about 10 days. Low risk and high reward. 

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

HDFC

NIFTY consolidated, just 10 points in red is no bear signal.
FIIs again did huge buying. Market will find any reason soon for 100 points gain during the day. One of the low hanging reason is decreasing commodity prices. Gold, silver, copper all are trading at multi-year low. This should help Government and RBI to cool inflation and reduce interest rates.
This could be the reason in spite of NIFTY closing in red, Bank NIFTY refused to make any lower low and closed in green.

Hold all CALL sell positions.
Hold IFCI PUT

HDFC:

Buy 1060 HDFC CALL around 15-17, Target 21-24 for one or two days. If one could buy multiple lots, keep booking profit at regular intervals then it has potential to touch 50/-

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss. 

NIFTY and IFCI

NIFTY corrected. My favorite indicator RSI is on daily chart is below 70%, would ensure NIFTY would not correct below 8050 tomorrow. New up move towards 8200 could start tomorrow from 8050-8060 range,if NIFTY ever goes there.  Broad market, BN were positive today in spite of fall. So lot of liquidity and positive sentiments in market will keep it above 8000-8050 for sure for sometime.

Hold all CALL sell contracts.
Book profit in 7700 CALL sell contract if it goes near 8050.
Premiums are low and it does not give any advantage in CALL or PUT writing.
FIIs are generally buyers in index, today their net sale is marginal negative after huge buying for past 15 days.

IFCI
Those who missed earlier PUT buy contract can buy IFCI 30 PUT around 0.20-0.15.
Book profit around 0.80-1.00

Risk takers could sell future, if IFCI goes below 33.25 in cash.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

No new trades.

Nothing is stopping NIFTY. Correction completed. New flag pattern is in place. It seems very clear by now NIFTY will touch 9000 very soon, perhaps before Diwali. It is difficult to believe investors are buying in this market, these are all traders and they have money and courage to buy at every small dip.
If there is slightest of correction tomorrow based on SC decision, it could be great buying opportunity. In any circumstances 8050 will not broken soon by bears. Tomorrow or at least before weekend NIFTY will be near 8300. RSI, MACD and all other indicators are in overbought region. Some stocks in IT and FMCG are the costliest in the world. But still NIFTY and these stocks are going up without significant volumes and reasons.

No new trades.
Hold all  NIFTY CALL sell positions, especially this is just second week in this series. Hold IFCI PUT contract.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

NIFTY, IFCI and DLF

After every NAMO event NIFTY is gaining at least 100 points. Lot of advertisement about his talk on Teacher's day. Good media management, so after Japan visit, market might find something from his talk and if NIFTY goes above 8145 in cash then it will cross 8180-8190 in style. This leg of consolidation will complete at 8190 and NIFTY will touch 8300 during the week.

In last 22 weeks NIFTY formed lower lows (that too marginal lower low, if such a term exists!) only on couple of occasions. So 7984, this week's low should not be broken in near future.

Sell 7900 PUT options. Psychologically NIFTY will not go below 8000 at least in this month and at the same time 8300 could be good support.
All indicators are overbought but nowadays they don't correct by price drop but correct with time. NIFTY had stayed in the range for three trading sessions, and RSI reduced by 15% from its high. Perhaps it is good enough for next up move. In NIFTY cash 8030-8020 is very strong support and lot of buying could emerge at this level.

FIIs are buying huge in cash and selling in Future. They are perfectly hedged whereas traders like us have to manage very small account and do have lot of limitations in devising appropriate strategies for such market conditions.

One of the safe strategy:

Sell 7900 PUT and Sell 8300 CALL 

DLF:

DLF has given one opportunity to book profit, which we missed!
Hope we would get another opportunity before month end. Strong buying seen in this counter on Friday and it would be appropriate to book profit in 160 PUT sell contract.


 IFCI:

It could go to 25-26 before month end based on retracement levels.
IFCI PUT 30 is available around 0.40.
It is worth investing Rs. 3200/-

Buy IFCI 30 PUT around 0.40. If it really slips to 25 your trading account will be credited by about Rs. 40,000/-
See chart, this possibility can not be ignored.
Invest premium received from selling CALLs and PUTs in NIFTY in buying IFCI PUT.

Disclaimer: This blog does not responsibility of your profit/loss

Keep accumulating 8300 CALL sell contract.

All indicators are overbought, so either NIFTY has to consolidate for averages to catch up or should fall by 3 to 5% to sustain further upward movement.

For NIFTY 8170 level is good resistance. Perhaps market might not fall but should not also cross 8170 + 50 points in near future.

One can keep accumulating 8300 CALL sell contract.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Watch out for SBI today, above 2555 (in cash) it will be clear break-out for another 100-150 points rally up to 2700/-

NIFTY is not looking at any negative news, in fact growing by a percentage on account of negative news. Lot of optimism, if NIFTY crosses 8180-8190 today/tomorrow, it can go anywhere.

It will be advisable to book loss in CALL sell positions if NIFTY closes above 8150 on EOD basis and stop trading for a week,

No new trades.
Everyday few stocks in NIFTY show tremendous run up.
Watch out for SBI today, above 2555 (in cash) it will be clear break-out for another 100-150 points rally up to 2700/-

One can expect usual trading day today. A gap up opening, quite trade during early market hours and upswing after 2 pm to take the rally further.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

Sell NIFTY 7700 CALL in the range of 380-400

NIFTY is making new high everyday.
CAD broadens today, if NIFTY goes up even after this bad news we are heading towards 8400.
RSI 14 d is above 94, extremely overbought and hence NIFTY could correct by 100 points in next couple of days.

Sell NIFTY 7700 CALL in the range of 380-400. Hold till weekend.

Reliance strategy:
Book profit, more than 2% gain in a day in bull spread and more than 4% in Future and CALL buy strategies, just pocket it.

DLF
Hold for couple days more.
It has reversed from the support. If it goes up tomorrow, and closes above day high today, then better to exit strategy at a marginal loss.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss