Buy NIFTY 6200 PUTS if NIFTY opens below 6225

This was an exceptional month and most of the trade went on other directions, including lottery trades. NIFTY 6200 PUT buy is also in loss.

Market is rejecting all negative news, everyday there are many examples. Yesterday Ranbaxy posted loss more than Rs. 400 cr, but stock was among top NIFTY gainers today. One can never explain that. Today FED hold tapering and announced continued bond buying program. So easy money will flow to Indian markets as investors will not hesitate to dump money in risky assets like Indian equities for some quick gains.
This was evident even today by huge buying by FII and selling by domestic institutions.
Indians are not believing stock market but foreigners are. NIFTY has given clear break-out today, though it just manged to close below breakout trend-line.

Let us stay away for sometime.
Tomorrow market could see all time high unless there could be profit booking at higher levels. However, surprisingly after FED's announcement US markets and Gold dropped, though they recovered to some extent later, initial fall was significant. US dollar became costly as compared to other currencies like Euro and JPY. Maybe same trend will be seen in morning session in India.
Should there be profit booking, market will open gap down by at least 40-50 points.
Buy NIFTY 6200 PUTS if there is gap down opening below 6225.

Otherwise we don't get even this last chance of recovering some loss in this month. Hard luck!!

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

DLF and NIFTY

As expected today there was a strong rally. This is power of liquidity. Even RBI Governor hiked rates BANKNIFTY gave clear breakout. One could ever explain logic behind this, but all this is sign of fund flowing in Indian market and maybe some good news is yet to come which we are not aware of!!
Trades and especially FIIs are riding on risk, buying at every low levels with tight stop loss. Fortunately for them 3 out of 4 trades are working for them.
Fundamentals are still negative. GDP forecast is reduced. Rupee is much above 60 and it is expected to depreciate from this levels as gold and crude are becoming dearer. According to world bank India is 134th in ranking of ease of doing business.Market does not want to hear that. NIFTY took channel support and went up by more than 125 points during the day.

Now all eyes are on FOMC meeting in US. Perhaps they will now declare tapering date and if it is delayed or postponed, market will see new highs. However, it will be known on Friday after closure of accounts for this month.

Buy DLF 155 call at around 1.5
and
Buy NIFTY 6200 Put around 20/25.

If short covering and roll over completed today, there is high likelihood that NIFTY will close near 6120/6140 for this expiry.
Sell NIFTY 6400 CALLs/6500 CALLs of November expiry. Keep averaging, do not invest all capital in one go.

Disclaimer : This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Exit 6100 CALL sell contracts of October expiry.

Anything can happen tomorrow. But there is high likelihood that RBI would do nothing with key rates.

Arguments for not changing or even lowering Repo.
Rupee has stabilized. If Rapo is lowered or kept same there will be lot of FII investment. More dollars will come in the market, demand for dollar will go down and Rupee will be strengthened. Import will become cheap and inflation will be controlled automatically.
New RBI Governor wants to be market friendly unlike earlier Governor. So there is very high possibility that RBI Governor does not do anything and in the best case scenario he will lower Repo with slight adjustments in MSF.

RBI could not control inflation in spite of all efforts.  And now not curbing the interest rates will not help for the growth which is a paramount concern for the economy. When China is growing by 8.5 percent and so are the other competing economies, India can not stay behind with GDP growth of sub 5%. To boost investors confidence before the elections definitely rates will be cut and this could be the last credit policy before the announcement of election dates.

Market will cheer that. It is merely liquidity driven market. Every month NIFTY is giving 2 to 3% returns, hence till Fed declares tapering, this is ride on risk market. Trader's market. Every trader is buying on dips with small SL and all such trades are successful in recent past.

Buy NIFTY with SL 6040/6030.

Exit 6100 CALL sell contracts of October expiry.
Stay in bear positions of IDFC PUT, Coalindia PUT and Jindal Steel PUT.

Book profits in all other bear positions. Maybe one can see 100 points rally after RBI announcement at 11 AM tomorrow.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

Lottery trades

This month is bad so far. Trading account is in red and hope to recover some loss during last eventful (RBI policy and corporate results) week ahead.

Lottery trades:
IDFC:
Stock is near supply zone.
Buy IDFC 100 PUT between 1.30-1.50. If there is some adverse announcement by RBI Governor, this stock could crash. Perhaps 25 basis point rate cut is already prized-in but if Repo rate cut by 50 points then banking stocks could correct.

DLF:
Let us also prepare a strategy for no rate cut in this policy.
All rate sensitives will find new peaks.
DLF is high beta stock and it could quickly reach 170 levels in an vent of no rate cut.
Buy DLF 160 Call between 1.20-1.50.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

NIFTY and Coal India

NIFTY is still trading in higher zone.
Today's correction from new intermediate high does not look like completion of wave 5 and could see buying at lower levels tomorrow.
It is better to buy NIFTY in the range of 6140-6145 (in SPOT) and look for the target 6200 (in SPOT).

NIFTY CALL sell.
Keep selling NIFTY 6100 CALL of October expiry.
6300 CALL of November expiry
6500 CALL of November expiry. Do this at every higher level.

Coal India
Buy 270 PUT in the range of 1.70-2.00/-

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Loss continued in 3rd consecutive week, let us halt here

Nothing worked in this month so far. Exited longs early and bear positions are not worth even looking at. NIFTY continues to go up. Friday rally was totally unexpected which seems to be based on China's good GDP data!
NIFTY is not considering India's poor GDP growth, high inflation, deteriorated macro environment and going up on China's GDP growth is something worth noticing.
Money saved is money earned. No new trading ideas, Just keep averaging NIFTY Call sell contracts at every high. Rollover if impossible to hold present positions.

Nobody should short anything in this liquidity driven market and buying at such a high level might not fetch good reward. If market does not fall in remaining 9 trading days in this month let us admit, market has totally deceived us and one should be always prepared to expect unexpected from market.


Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

No new trades at least till this weekend!

In liquidity driven market no technical, fundamental explanation works.
Today NIFTY is well set for gap up opening by at least another 40/50 points. Market is absorbing all negatives news. Bearish hanging man pattern formed on Friday was invalidated today. No positive indication from US, IIP data was much less than expectations, inflation data is much higher, Europe, US markets are struggling to perform, nothing great in Reliance results but NIFTY is forming higher highs everyday.
As of now Singapore NIFTY is up by 75 points and our NIFTY must take cue and open at least in the range of 6150/6160 tomorrow. Every lows are being bought. No one is in the mood of profit booking. FIIs are buying in cash segment.

Let us not do any new trades. Buying anything now will be costly and selling anything in this momentum driven market will be silly.

So take trading holidays till this weekend and try to hold all existing positions.


Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss 

Update

Nothing went right for first two weeks and hope things to improve in next two weeks for trades suggested in this blog. Our trading account is in red so far for the month of October.
There could be some profit booking in this  week and might provide chance to exit bear positions.
Book profit in long positions wherever possible.

NIFTY:
Sell 6200 NIFTY CALL of October expiry between 85-95/-
NIFTY is unlikely to close above 6285 at this months expiry and if closes below 6200 one should able to pocket entire premium.

INFOSYS:
Sell INFY 3500 CALL of October expiry between 14-18

Jindal Steel
Buy 230 PUT between 1.50-2.00. Stock is very close to supply region and might slip to 210-200 levels before expiry. Small investment could fetch astonishing returns.

Disclaimer:
This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Book profit in long positions

A perfect stage for 100 points gap up tomorrow.
Europe markets are up. Dow is up by 250 points, Singapore NIFTY is up by 100 points already. Good follow up action after bullish engulfing pattern, FIIs invested about Rs. 1600 cr today in stock market after rest of three days.
NIFTY could cross 6120 tomorrow unless this script is spoiled by INFOSYS results and IIP data.

Book profit in all long positions, reasons are as follows;

1. Market is known to reverse trend when everyone is bullish. 
2. Macros are still negative, high inflation, poor industry growth/closure, recession in real estate, unemployment in high income segment, petrol, diesel prices are going up, no new investments are coming to India, low GDP growth, tapering from US will come some it is only deferred. However, markets in India are neglecting all negative scenarios, IMF rating and this means there is some undercurrent. 
3. 6095/6100/6132 is strong resistance level.
4. volume was low today.
5. RSI (9 D) is near 70, with gap up opening it will be overbought region.
6. Fall could be equally sharp up to 5830/5650.

Keep averaging NIFTY Calls.

Sell 6500 NIFTY CALLs of November expiry between 70-85

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update, INFY

NIFTY will soon cross 6100. Maybe it will do it tomorrow looking at bullish engulfing candlestick pattern formed today on daily chart with very high volume.

But now it is advisable to book profit in bullish positions in our portfolio.

Contract              Buying price                 Present value                          Profit/loss/lot

NIFTY 6150         55                                 95                                          +2000

BN 9800              440                               184                                        -6400

DLF 130              9                                   1.55                                      -7450

TCS 2200            20                                 49.50                                      +7250

Jindal 230            9                                   2.30                                       -6700             
Aurobindo            6.10                               5.85                                      +0
Hero 2100           60                                  59                                         -750
SBI 1600             55                                   58                                        +250

NIFTY  6500 CALL of November expiry: Sell 6500 NIFTY calls in the range of 60-75 tomorrow and day after tomorrow. 

INFY: Everybody is bullish on INFOSYS. Stock markets are known for unexpected results.
Buy INFY 2500 PUT at around 20-25 as a counter-trade. Risk reward ratio could be very good. 


Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update

NIFTY is very reluctant to go down. It recovered very fast today touching previous support around 5825-5830..
India is very good in many aspects, one of the aspect is porosity. There was no reason today for NIFTY to cover 80 points. It did happen perhaps because market movers knew about RBI move about MSF rate cut later today. Many stalwarts were surprised by up-move. To take market up, it has to have only India specific event as Rupee was stable, Europe markets were down, gold and crude oil appreciated, there was no apparent good news but NIFTY was unstoppable during last hour of the trade.
Finally it gave another perfect bullish hammer candlestick pattern today. Hence NIFTY could give 80-100 points gap-up opening. If it convincingly stays above 5950 for some time, one can see levels of 6060 before weekend or maybe even tomorrow.
I don't know impact of MSF cut much but all I can say it could drive positive sentiments among investors. It could last for one/two days!!

Present portfolio:
It is making loss about 8000/-, but worth holding. Still about 17 trading days in this month and anything is possible in this volatile market.
These are sentiments based momentum and if this is still short covering rally, it will be curbed before weekend. Otherwise we will exit portfolio early next week.

Average 6500 NIFTY CALL sell of November expiration date if you could get at higher levels, about 80-100 with big gap up opening.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

NIFTY and Portfolio

NIFTY is going up in an optimism of fund flow to India and EM due to US shut down. Tapering is delayed. Even if US starts working this week NIFTY could again go up thinking now every problem is resolved.
USD index is also going down and helping Rupee. Debt ceiling decision in US on October 17 could govern further market direction. Infosys and TCS results could add to the momentum in short term.
FIIs are buying. It seems NIFTY is all set to touch 6200 again.

This theory could go wrong if shut down in US continues beyond 17. Rupee depreciates on demand from importers.

NIFTY:
Sell 6500 Calls of November expiry in the range of 35-40. Keep averaging at higher levels.

Portfolio:
First week was bad for our portfolio and loss is in the range of 10000/-.
Let us continue with same in next week with following addition:
Buy SBI 1600 PUT between 57-58 and add to portfolio.
Buy M & M 880 Call between 28-30

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update

NIFTY has respected hammer pattern more than expected. I had not anticipated this big move and was not prepared at all.
However, generally any kind of fast progress is risky and not sustainable. Usually share markets will always turn the direction after making everybody complacent and relax. In two days of trading Tuesday and Thursday, everybody is bullish. FIIs also did huge buying today after few days and may extend rally tomorrow morning till 5970-5985 again. Even if there is gap down opening, gap could be filled very soon to touch 5970-5980 levels.

Due to sharp up-move most of the indicators are still in oversold region and this will help to fuel rally further. Nothing had changed between Friday last week and Thursday this week except NIFTY!
In recent history NIFTY moves 200-300 points in four/five days and corrects by similar numbers in two days. So be careful as fast growth could see deep correction.

Our portfolio

Contract              Buying price                 Present value                          Profit/loss/lot

NIFTY 6150       55                                70                                          +750

BN 9800             440                              225                                        -5375

DLF 130             9                                  6.15                                       -2850

TCS 2200           20                                33                                          +3250

 Jindal 230           9                                  5.50                                       -3500            
Aurobindo           6.10                             6.30                                       +400
Hero 2100          60                                54                                           -750

So present loss is around 8000/-
Let us hold, if tomorrow market falls during closing hour and table turns in to green then exit, otherwise hold for next week.

No new trades.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update

On Tuesday NIFTY daily chart gave perfect hammer pattern, which is atypical bullish pattern. Hence, in spite of all odds, there is high likelihood that NIFTY may touch or cross 200 day moving average ie 5840.

But still for the month trend is bearish and market may not sustain at higher levels.

Hold all positions in our portfolio.
NIFTY CALL
BANK NIFTY PUT
Aurobindo CALL
DLF PUT
TCS CALL
HEROMOTOCORP CALL
JINDAL STEEL PUT

Presently portfolio is at very marginal loss or marginal profit based on the prices contracts were executed.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss