New trades will be only on Monday

Maybe big down move is round the corner. Could happen on Thursday? Chances are low but possible.
Because FIIs sold huge and DIIs bought in equally huge quantities today, whenever this happened in past, markets went down within a week. Perhaps NIFTY would able to hold 6000 till expiry.

There could be some short covering rally and NIFTY might wait for FOMC meeting outcome tomorrow night for further decisive direction.

New trades will be only on Monday.
Till then just count the profit gained this month and transfer the funds from your trading account to saving accounts!!

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

Strategies for the expiry week

There are plenty of events lined up during next week. RBI policy (Tuesday) , FOMC meeting (Wednesday) and expiry day on Thursday. There could be very high volatility and option trader must prepare strategy to deal with it.
FIIs sold in huge quantity. Last week will be totally driven by option table. Global markets closed in red and gap down opening is almost certain.
PCR is near 1.1.
Very strong support around 6160.

Bank of Baroda
Buy 580 PUT between 2.50-3.50

JPASSOCIAT
Buy JP ASSOCIATE 45 PUT around 0.40.

SUNPHARMA
Buy SUNPHARMA 610 CALL between 5.25-5.75

Don't enter in to all trades if your profit does not permit. Do selective trading and avoid over trading. It is very risky to write CALL or PUT in this last eventful week. It is advisable to book profit in all CALLs and PUTs written earlier. If you can not take the risk based on your profit this month, then just sit back, relax and enjoy volatility.

Maybe buy some quality stocks like SBI, HCLTECH, LT, ICICI Bank, AXISBANK, Reliance, TATAMOTORS etc. if they correct during the week from 1 to 6 months perspective. Or needless to mention, one can hold these stocks for long term and keep adding to them on every decline to make a strong portfolio for future.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

Update

Perhaps due to problem of Argentinian currency all EU and US markets were down and most of the Asian markets are down too, though they are slowly moving in green.
NIFTY might not go much below 6300 and again 6280 and 6260 level to be followed very closely. Lot of buying could emerge in that zone, if at all NIFTY goes there due to global pressure this morning.

Keep booking profits in 6400 CALL sell and other CALL sell options.
Exit AXISBANK strategy at cost or at marginal profit today.
Book profit in JP ASSOCIATE CALL option.


Disclaimer:  This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update, LT, JP Associate

In midst of mixed LT results market might cross today's top tomorrow. In general, trend is up, and hence market could disregard somewhat negative results of  LT, especially their top line. There could be possibility that short covering could take LT around 1040-1050 in cash during early morning tomorrow and it will be the time to sell 1100 CALL.

LT
Sell 1100 CALL between 5 and 7.

NIFTY
Keep selling NIFTY 6450 CALLs. Today there was good opportunity to sell 6450 CALL around 17-18. Maybe one would get this chance tomorrow also.
Even with RBI policy review on January 28, it could be extremely difficult for NIFTY to cross 6450 before expiry. Today NIFTY gave break out at 6340 but could not close above it.
One may exit this CALL sell positions in next two/three days if trade is not moving in favorable direction.

Bhartiartl:
Those who missed to book profit today can do so tomorrow morning.

JP Associate:
Lottery trade and one can do so if profits of this month permit to enter into this trade.
This stock had beaten down in past few days and showing some sign of recovery again in last couple of days. It is still in oversold region and has potential to touch 54/55 mark in next 4/5 trading sessions.
Buy 52.5 CALL between 0.20-0.25.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

NIFTY and BHARTIARTL

NIFTY might correct till 6280/6260 today.
Exit HDIL CALL contract and book profit at current levels.

Sell 6450 NIFTY CALL if you get it between 15-17.
This would be very safe trade.

BHARTIARTL

Bharti is near demand level, stock could be cheap for investors at this levels and one could see buying in next couple of days to take the stock in the range of 320 very soon.
If profit gained in this month permits, then only buy Bharti 310 CALL between 5.50-6.00, SL 3.30 Target 9.20/12.50.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

HDIL

NIFTY is still stuck in range of multiple resistances and supports. It is very risky to take any trade unless direction is known, though broad direction of NIFTY is upward.

HDIL
Stock is in down trend but now reached oversold region. There is lot of open interest in 50 CALL contract and lot of unwinding in  50 PUT shows, there could be possibility of some upside today.
Buy HDIL 50 CALL between 1.4-1.6  and book profit between 2.40-2.60. If you buy multiple lots hold some lots for target around 3/-
Book loss if option value goes below 0.50.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

NIFTY

NIFTY is experiencing some profit booking at resistance zone. This might continue during the day. TCS results might not have significant impact.

Buy 6300 PUT for small 10-12 points upside at around 55-60. Book profit in the range of 68-70.
If NIFTY goes above 6340 in cash then exit this PUT contract otherwise one can hold the trade for Monday. But don't risk too much of capital.
Market is in uptrend so such a contra-trade would be risky.

Followers of this blog should not have any open position by now in this month, except LT 1060/1080 Call sell contracts. Try to book profits today in the same.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

NIFTY and INFY

As expected INFY results set tone of market.
LT
Exit LT 1060 CALL contract if LT goes above 1036 in cash. Larson results are on next Wednesday and if they are not up to expectations stock will fall. Last two occasions stock corrected after the results.

NIFTY might cross all time high again.
Buy 6500 CALL between 14-15. Hold till Friday evening or for target 25-28.

INFY:
Infosys has gone far. It might not cross 3850. Stock might go up tomorrow in expectation of good results of other IT major TCS.
Sell 3850 CALL between 13-15

One can use premium received from one lot of INFY to buy 2 lots of NIFTY to ensure credit balance.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Axisbank

Book profit in LT 1080/1060 Calls. One should have exited from all earlier recommendations so far and trading account must have substantial profit at least 7 to 8 times FD bank's interest.
FII sold today again after huge buying for two days. NIFTY and many stocks are range bound, good for option writers.

Axisbank:
Axisbank will announce quarterly results on Thursday. Generally stock goes up after the results. OI is also more in CALL contracts and IV is near 38-40.

Bull spread strategy

Buy 1200 CALL around 28 and sell 1250 CALL around 14.
Maximum loss could be about 3500 but strategy has profit potential around 9000/-
Loss potential also can me minimized by selling 1350 CALL around 3.50/4 and 1050 PUT around 4/5.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Ranbaxy and LT

Indian markets do over react. Inflation numbers took NIFTY 100 points up in a single day. Time and again 6140-6160 level is acting as huge support and  6310-6340 level is strong resistance. One can see tomorrow NIFTY reverse from resistance zone or stay there for some time.

Book profits in 6000/5900 PUT sell option contracts.

Ranbaxy:
This company has same problems, there are  FDA issues, investors are still believing in company, probably betting on buy back from parent company.

Sell 500 CALL between 3.20-3.50.

LT:
It shown bounce back today due to oversold conditions. It will be difficult for stock to cross 1080 before expiry.
Sell LT 1080 CALL between 7.30-7.80

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

NIFTY

NIFTY:
If NIFTY is to respect technicals, it should cross 6280 in this week, hence if NIFTY crosses 6200, look for the targets 6280.

Buy 6200 CALL only if NIFTY crosses 6195.
NIFTY 6200 option should be between 80.20-83; Buy 6200 CALL between 80.20-83.00 and book profit near 95 as first target and hold other lots for target 106.50.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update

World markets are in red. NIFTY will look at INFOSYS results for next direction. IIP numbers will be announced after market hours, but some smart traders would know them already and will plan trades accordingly at flag end of the trading session today. So be with the trend,and expect volatility after 2 PM.  

It is very easy to get caught at wrong side of the market.

RELINFRA was one of that example. If caught in wrong side book loss in 410 PUT sell option and sell 380 or 390 PUTs to maintain credit balance in your trading account.

INFOSYS:

Today after results IV will go down by end of the session and if there is at least Rs. 2000 profit, then exit from the strategy or hold till Monday.

Maruti:

Book profit in PUT sell contract.

IDFC:

Book profit in 120 CALL sell contract.

NIFTY

Hold 6000 and 5900 PUT contracts

Disclosure: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

INFOSYS

Market direction is uncertain. Perhaps after INFY results tomorrow it will choose the direction.
Due to results INFY stock options IVs have gone up as every trader must be doing some strategy for INFY.

Here is one strategy on INFY, where maximum loss could be in the range of 4000-5000 and profit potential around 8000-9000, if IV comes own to 25% after results from current levels.
Otherwise loss could be around 7000/-

Sell 3400 CALL around 110-120
Sell 3400 PUT around 105-115
Buy 3200 PUT around 38-44
Buy 3700 CALL around 40-50

Take all positions simultaneously around market rates. This type of Iron Candor strategy works very well when IVs are very high and should fetch good profit within two days.
Exit after results or on Monday when IV would have gone further down and if INFY stays within the range post results.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update

FIIs continued withdrawal. NIFTY is drifting downwards, but still it is worth holding 6000 and 5900 PUTs. They seem to be reasonably safe so far.

RELINFRA:
Hold till it goes below 399 in cash. If it could survive till weekend, after weekend time value will erode and loss will be minimum.
If it touches 420/422 in cash there could be nice opportunity to book profit. Don't miss any opportunity to exit out of RELINFRA PUT sell contract/(s) today.

No new trades, just try to hold previous ones and monitor them.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss. 

NIFTY 5900 PUT

FIIs sold yesterday in cash after long time in substantial quantity. Nevertheless, NIFTY is still managing to stay above 6180. Sustaining above 6180-6160 levels will see 6300 again in short time.

Sell NIFTY 5900 PUT at around 19-22.
Book profit at 10.
This is reasonably safe trade.

Manage RELINFRA trade now with SL of 400 in cash. It is forming lower lows for sure, but good part was, yesterday, it bounced back from 406 support and closed near to day's high. In gloomy situation, it is good sign for the stock. If it shows follow up action today in upward direction, there could be reasonable chance to exit in profit/small losses.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Couple of new trades to start the week and update on RELINFRA

RELINFRA

It hit stop loss on Friday, there was hardly any time to book loss as it turned up from support 406/407 within no time. However, keep an eye and if it goes below 406 in cash again it is better to book loss in 410 PUT sell /400 PUT sell contract.
Hold the trade till it is above 406 in cash.

IDFC:

In general IDFC is being traded in the range of 97-117 for some time now.
Sell 120 CALL between 1.10-1.20. Exit the trade if stock goes above 108.80 in cash within next two days.

More safe trade will be to sell IDFC 125 CALL between 0.55-0.60. This will fetch easy Rs. 2000 on investment of about RS. 50000-60000 as margin money. This will be more than 5 time bank FD yield.

Maruti

Maruti is in up trend. It is unlikely it will go below 1650.
Sell 1650 PUT between 6.50-7.00.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take responsibility of your profit/loss

RELINFRA

Due to overbought intraday situations and  since PCR was below 1, it showed quick correction. As a general obsevation whenever PCR is below 1 or just around 1, NIFTY shows very sharp correction. This was mentioned in this blog two days ago and cautioned for longs.
If liquidity remains at current levels and if Rupee gets some strength, this correction might not sustain and it might not see much lower levels, it could correct till 6150 though.

Some stocks corrected very fast which shown quick rise. RELINFRA was one of them. It has gone till 413 in cash today from 436 and bounced back from the support.

RELINFRA 410 PUT
Sell RELINFRA 410 PUT between 10.50 and 11. Book small profit during the day in the range of 8-9.50.

Risk averse can sell 380 or 390 PUTs around 4 and 6 respectively.

Exit or do not enter in trade if RELINFRA goes below 407 in cash segment.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss  

Tatamotors

Tatamotors:
Sell 420 CALL between 2-2.20.
There is less than 10% chance that Tatamotors will cross 2.20 before this month's expiry.
This is reasonably safe.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss