No new trades on 01.01.2014

Wishing very Happy New Year.
No new trades on first day of 2014.
Keep booking profits in Apollo Tyre strategy.
Book profit in Axisbank 1450 CALL. Axis bank is showing strength now. It could go to 1365 quickly if 1275-1280 range holds.
General trend is up, but still it creates suspicion as PCR is less than 1 even after such an up-trend. It means open interest in PUT contract less than open interest CALL contract. Hence, it seems option traders are not confident about continuation of uptrend. So one should be cautious in buying till NIFTY crosses earlier high on EOD basis.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update and INFOSYS

Axisbank did not go below 1278 today, if it touches 1280 tomorrow, 1350 CALL option will be priced around 27.50. One should book profit.
Hold 1450 CALL.

Book 50% profit in 6500 CALLs around 30/31
Hold 6600 CALLs.

Hold Apollo Tyre and Auropharma strategies till end of the month, or book profit whenever appropriate.

INFOSYS:
INFY is in uptrend. But it could be difficult to cross 4000 even after quarterly results.

Sell 4000 INFY CALL around 18-20. One should average after results if it goes up. Ideally, one should able to book profit before results.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Start with safe strategies in this series

We are entering in to new eventful year.
NIFTY might continue it's uptrend till it closes below 6160 on EOD basis.

Let us continue our mission of finding low risk option strategies. First update on Axis bank.
There is high likelihood Axis bank will move sideways/downward for few trading sessions. It might struggele to close below 1278, low of December 24. If it goes near 1278 on Monday morning, 1350 CALL would be priced near 26-27. This is first target for profit booking.

As regards to new strategies
1) Short straddle on Reliance

Sell 960 CALL between 3.50-4.00 and sell 820 CALL between 3.50-4.00. As usual short straddle must be done in multiples of two lots each for reasons specified earlier in this blog.
Delta of this strategy is presently less than 0.5%. It seems to be very safe and considering total four lots margin would be blocked around 75000/- for profit around 3000 to 4000. This is three times bank interest. There is more than 95% chance that one should able to make this 40% gain in next 30 days.

2) Sell NIFTY CALLs
Sell 6500 CALL in the range of 50-55 of January expiry
Sell 6600 CALL in the range of 24-28 of January expiry.
Again don't employ all you capital at one go but invest only 30% of capital now if NIFTY continues upward momentum we will average few lots later.

3) Iron candor on Auropharma
This could be bit costly for margin requirement as per NSE site (about Rs. 2.75 lacs), but it could be very promising as risk reward ratio is very favorable.

Buy 470 CALL at around 2.50
Sell 460 CALL at around 2.90
Sell 330 PUT at around 9.65
Buy 320 PUT at around 1.70

Check prices before entering in to the contracts, if all prices are in the ranges mentioned above then maximum profit will be more than 16500 and maximum loss could be around 3300.
So risk reward ratio is very good.

4) Apollotyre:
Sell 100 PUT around 5.95 and buy 97.5 PUT around 4.50
Maximum loss could be 4000 and maximum profit will be about 6000.




Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Axisbank

Axisbank was going up, it was based on rumor perhaps increase in FII holdings. Now news is out. Stock showed sudden spurt today and it might continue tomorrow till its recent top around 1342.
1350 CALL will be around 60 then.
Gap up opening tomorrow would help option price increase of Axisbank.

Sell AXISBANK 1350 CALL one lot around 40-45 and book profit around 25, if it goes up average with one more lot at around 60. SL 80.
More safe strategy will be to sell 1450 AXISBANK CALL between 14.5-16.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

No new trades today

This is a kind day every option trader should dream. No pending positions on an expiry day, a descent profit more than 8 to 10 of bank FD interest already pocked this month.
Today all Asian markets are opened in green and so would do NIFTY. Most probably expiry will be near 6300 as there is lot of addition of 6300 PUTs on Tuesday and increased in open interest. These option writers will do everything to ensure expiry near or above 6300, if they could. Let us wait and watch.

We booked profit in IFCI, but there is very high likelihood that IFCI could cross 26 today and 25 CALL could expire above Rs. 1.
This turned out to be good lottery trade.
So far one could earn Rs. 5200 on investment of 1200/- in IFCI, ie more than 300 % returns in less than a week's time. It has potential to do more!

No new trades today, just sit back, relax, enjoy lost day's fun. Maybe there might not be usual huge volatility after 2 pm on expiry day, due to vacation period.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update

NIFTY has reached closed to 6300 and trying to cross all time high.
Markets are in up move and discounting all negatives news. On the contrary NIFTY is searching for any positive element to to go up. Decision by oil and gas ministry was one of that case where RIL and others surged along with NIFTY.
However, now everything is behind us and now priced in. FED decision, RBI policy, RIL, etc.  FIIs are on vacation. There is no further trigger immediately. Maybe market will use this time for consolidation between 6250-6350 for some time at least till 1st week of January before next big move.

We are not taking any new trades, but selling 6350 CALL of December expiry between 17-20 could be the safest bet.There is lot of addition of 6300 PUT, this could take NIFTY beyond 6320/6325 in early hours on Monday and 6350 CALL will be available at much higher price about 25-30. Do average it then.


We are holding IDFC PUT and IFCI CALL.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

No more new trades till expiry date this month!

Anything is possible tomorrow. Indian market continued recent tradition of over-reaction, and perhaps nothing will happen tomorrow.
NIFTY could quietly cross 6200/6250 in style tomorrow/Monday.
Hope you have prepared for fall or rise.
No more new trades till expiry date 26 December 2013. We are now left with only two trades.
BUY IDFC 100 PUT and BUY in IFCI 25 CALL.
We will hold these, and expect to gain descent profit in one of this if there is big swing.

 Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Prepare yourself for mega event.

RBI Governor surprised everybody, though there is about 50 point up-move after the announcement, one should be very careful. Now there is euphoria in market, perhaps lot of domestic investors would jump in. FII sold in Futures!. IVs and option premiums of stocks are going down even after discounting for last days of the month..
One of the reason why RBI would have not hiked rate could be, in analysis of RBI, there could be high likelihood of tapering to start in December/January. If that happens, anyway there will be liquidity crunch and there is no need of rate hike to curb the liquidity. As per commentary by RBI, investors are cautioned if there is no brake on inflation, RBI anytime will hike the rate. This could mean in other words if FED does not do anything on Thursday we will do it soon!

Hold all bear and bull positions till Friday morning. Maybe buy few more OTM CALLs and PUTs if this month's profit permits.
For example buy 1140 LT CALL at around Rs. 6-7/-
buy JINDALSTEEL 260 CALL at around 2-2.50
HOLD IDFC 100 PUT or average it as it is very cheap now, if IDFC goes below 104.25 it will slide down quickly towards 101.
Buy 11900 CALL of BANKNIFTY at around 65 and buy 11100 PUT of BANKNIFTY at around 60-65.

Choose any one or two above options and exit on Friday morning.

Even if  there might not be huge impact of  taper by FED, market could show knee-jerk reaction and could show gap down opening/gap up opening on Friday morning.  Hence this preparation.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

Update and buy OTM IFCI CALL

Market is showing downtrend before the events. Volumes are low, defensive stocks are going up. So market is all set to react to RBI policy and rate cut probabilities.
RBI announcement is expected tomorrow and FED announcement by tomorrow night, which would reflect in our markets on Friday morning.

Assuming 25 basis points rate cut is discounted and knowing past two market friendly announcements by Central bank Governor, it is more certain nothing earth shaking will happen tomorrow and one could see mere 40/50 points up move after the announcement. Main directional move will be on Friday.
In such scenarios problem for option traders is, generally premiums are very high and it becomes very unattractive for buying any contract.

This month so far has generated good profit.
Exit TATAMOTORS 410 CALL of January expiry, book profit.
Book profit in NIFTY 6400 CALL sell option of January expiry and December expiry.
Hold IDFC 100 PUT till Friday if you have generated enough profit this month.

If market goes up on Friday, banking will move up quickly and high beta banking stocks will show sharp upward momentum.

Buy IFCI 25 CALL between 0.10-0.15.
Generally one should buy ATM or ITM CALLs. But one can make an exception before any mega event, when IV is very high and could taste the water in small investment by buying OTM CALLs.
In this case, it is very small Rs. 800-1200 investment, it will pay off only if market changes direction after FOMC meeting on Friday otherwise one has to forgo this money. But it is worth investing this small amount and prepare for change in direction of market on Friday.
FED may not do anything and by not doing anything would give positive signals to market. Investors will dump money in EM markets and lot of  fund would flow to India. If this happens very soon NIFTY will again touch all time high.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

No new Option trades ahead of policy decisons and J B Chemicals in cash

There is no point in doing something in hurry. Let us wait. Hold IDFC PUT option and it would generate good profit if market goes down.

We don't have any position in Option strategies if market goes up after FED and RBI announcements. So buy JB Chemicals in cash segment. This stock has potential to become another AUROPHARMA in near future.
Buy this stock in the range of 113-115 and prepare to hold for 3 to 6 months.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

Update and short straddle

Everything would depend on RBI and FED for next direction of the market.
It is better not to do new aggressive trades.
Hold on to IDFC PUT for target above 6.25. Hold on to sell NIFTY 6400 CALLs of December expiry and book profit at around 8-10.

Sell NIFTY 6400 CALLs  of  January expiry around 100-102 and book profit around 40-45. These are all earlier trades. Keep booing profits in view of very volatile week ahead.

Short Straddle
Sell 6700 NIFTY CALL of January expiry between 22-24 and Sell 5700 NIFTY PUT of January expiry between 18-22.
Today Delta of this strategy is around 3.7%. Do this in multiples of two lots and enter in to trades simultaneously.
As long as delta is less than 17-18 one can safely stay foot in this strategy. If this delta value crosses 18, please prepare to exit one lot each. In 9 out of 10 times these options would end worthless and one would able to keep entire premium amount.
Total investment in margin money in 4 lots (2 CALLs and 2 PUTs) will be around 60000 and one would able to earn 4000 (or around 3500 discounting for all costs including brokerage) in next 45 days.
A fixed deposit bank interest would able to fetch about  Rs. 700-800  in 45 days over Rs. 60,000/- investment, whereas there is reasonable possibility that one would able to gain four to five times of FD's yield in same amount of time. So this strategy is one of the safest strategy. One can calculate delta and keep a track of this investment, I will also mention on the blog if in case there would be any needs to exit from this strategy.

CALL Sell strategy:
NIFTY is still trading at very high levels. It would be very difficult to cross 6700 before January expiration, even if there is fair chance that it would continue it's northward movement.

So sell 6700 CALL of January expiry at around 20-23 . Don't invest your entire capital and keep averaging if it goes up in future.

One can make combination of both these strategies and sell 4 CALLs of 6700 of January expiration and sell 2 PUTs of 5700 of January expiration. Or work with multiples of these contracts.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Some safe strategies for 40% ROI

NIFTY opening gap down nowadays, it did so for last three consecutive days. It could do it tomorrow as well. IIP and inflation data is not good.
Now all eyes will be on RBI policy and US fed meetings next week on Wednesday and Thursday.

In view of this let us adapt very safe strategies
Sell Reliance 900 CALL of December expiry between 6-6.40
Sell Reliance 940 CALL of January expiry between 12-12.50

Here Rs 30000 investment in margin money would able to to fetch RS. 1200/- excluding brokerage in less than 15 days. This is more than 40% return.

Sell Tatamotors 410 CALL of January expiry around 6/-

Sell NIFTY 6400 CALL between 25-30
OR
Sell NIFTY 6350 CALL around 40
These all are reasonably safe strategies.NIFTY CALL sell contracts are obviously more safe than stocks.

Once money deposited in your account take trade in IDFC
If RBI policy and US Fed signals are not up to expectation of market then banking will crash first.
IDFC is always more vulnerable below 100.
So buy IDFC 100 PUT around 1.00. This could turn out to be good investment!! Hold till policy decisions by RBI. Perhaps it can reach up to 7/8.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Buy NIFTY PUT for intraday

Book profit in TATASTEEL CALL sell, NIFTY 6100 PUT sell and SBI CALL sell contracts.
Market may stay within range as there is no new trigger. Macro data will be known and we will take new positional trades tomorrow based on market direction.

Only for today buy 6250 PUT @ 44-46 target 52/56. SL 21
Don't expect big move and keep booking profit today with trailing SL. NIFTY may bounce back from 6260 levels to 6330. So be alert on short positions.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

NIFTY and TATASTEEL

NIFTY

Sell 6100 PUT between 23-25

TATASTEEL

Sell 420 CALL between 15.50-16.50

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

NIFTY and BANKNIFTY

BJP and Modi had one of the brightest day. Indian market will cheer the outcome as BJP is perceived as a political party to provide market friendly Governance.
China export data was exceptionally good and nowadays markets zoom after Chinese data.
US markets were up on Friday.
Singapore NIFTY closed at all time high on Friday

In short all set for at least 150 points gap up opening on Monday. Usually Indian markets do over react and it will so on Monday too. 6420-6460 is the resistance zone, so keep selling 6500 and 6600 CALL options. If NIFTY goes near 6420 then 6500 CALL will be available at around 100-103 tomorrow.

NIFTY 6500 CALL
Sell 6500 CALL between 90-105.
Use your 30-40% capital to average earlier contracts of 6500 CALLs.

NIFTY 6600 CALL
Sell 6600 CALL between 60-65.
This could be very safe as there are not many trading days left and NIFTY may consolidate at 6400-6500 levels for rest of the month or would correct marginally for all time high levels due to profit booking.

Finally anything can happen in market.It would turn down when it is most unexpected and everybody is bullish on market. One must not forget just three months ago all stalwarts were advising clients to get out of market as NIFTY went below 5200 from 6100 in just 6 trading sessions. Though it is remote possibility now, one can not ignore it to happen. After this election outcome there is no new trigger and IIP data and inflation numbers are going to drive the market. The irony is on one hand if macro data is good market will react positively, but it will be based on deliverable of present Government on the other hand market is giving thumps up for possibility of change in government in April/May.

It will be interesting to see what would happen if P Chdambaram is announced as next PM candidate by Sonia. Would market still go up? Are political parties deciding PM candidates looking at markets where only 3% Indian population is involved?

There is high possibility that date of elections will be delayed as far as possible and it would create an anxiety among traders. Congress would now get time to device strategy and  dampen Modimania.

Nevertheless, purpose of this blog is not to make political comments but to find out risk free option strategies. So all this suggests NIFTY could stay below 6500-6600 and it is safe to keep selling 6500-6600 CALLs.

And,
If NIFTY to be corrected fall be lead by BANKNIFTY. Very soon interest rates will be hiked. BN can correct then by 1000 points in few sessions.
Buy 11200 PUT of BANKNIFTY at around 52-56


Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Tatasteel and Adanipower

Market must have already discounted BJP's success by now in this election but still one can see some gap up opening tomorrow as knee jerk reaction based on exit-polls results.

Book profit in TATAMOTORS 410 CALL near 7.50/7.70 levels.

TATASTEEL:
Sell TATASTEEL 460 CALL between 3.20-3.80

ADANIPOWER
Sell ADANIPOWER 35 PUT between 1.25-1.40; OR low risk takers can sell 32.5 PUT around 0.60

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Tatamotors and NIFTY call sell contracts

NIFTY is slowly factoring election outcome. Markets are not cheap now so very huge upward movement in NIFTY of say 200 points after election outcome is unlikely.

Use this scenario for selling CALL options. Auto as a sector is suddenly not doing well, in fact in election year Auto should have done well. So book profits quickly when you are gaining more than 2% on your investments.

Tatamotors
Sell TATAMOTORS 410 CALL between 13.5-14.5.

NIFTY
Sell NIFTY 6600 CALLs between 33-36

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss. 

Sell CALLs in first week.

First week start selling CALL options.
Sell 6500 December expiry CALLs at around 55-60. Do not invest entire capital tomorrow, but reserve at least 25% capital. We will average if it goes above 100 after election results.

Sell TATAMOTORS 410 CALL at around 13-14.

Sell Reliance 920 CALL between 6.5-7.25.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

TATAMOTORS

Though most of lead indicators down, FII sold after long time, global cues are possitive.
US markets are up, dollar index is down, Rupee is perfectly at it support level. This all could ensure NIFTY trade in green during at least initial hour/two.

TATAMOTORS
The stock went up in spite of adverse market conditions. It closed near day's high.
Sell TATAMOTOR 380 CALL between 13.50-14.00. Very soon it will face strong resistance of 394. It could be difficult for TATAMOTORS to cross 394 before expiry. Option table will ensure it will stay between 380-400.
More it closes near 380 profit in this trade could be more.

Low risk trade could sell TATAMOTORS 390 CALL around 6.50.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

No new trade tomorrow

Today we know reason why option traders were adding 6000 PUTs even if market was declining. Iran news was out after market hours on Friday. Always keep an eye on option table during last week, it mostly gives correct idea about future direction. All those who kept on selling PUTs had made money. Today they are adding 6100 PUTs and will make sure tomorrow market stays much above 6100.
FIIs were buying all along. US dollar index was going down. All these indicators were pointing towards up-move. However, as a general trend, Indian markets are over reacting nowadays. I had never expected such a big up move today and I guess nor did many.

If market goes above 6200 tomorrow, there could be further upside otherwise market will consolidate in this (6100-6150)  region till expiry. Perhaps euphoria of Iran news will stay for two more days. Normally if market had to correct, it would have corrected after news broke, it did not happen. NIFTY waited for sometime and followed flag pattern. So I think clearly there is some more upside.

Double top pattern on NIFTY chart is invalidated and it is now more than 100% certain that NIFTY will not close below 6000 before expiry.

No new trades for tomorrow.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

POWERGRID

NIFTY is bouncing time and again from 5970-5980 levels. It went up three times in last 6 trading sessions from 5970-5980. This has become psychological level and traders are confident that NIFTY is going to go up from these lows. Please note, in spite of lot of selling happened from recent top, traders are selling 6000 CALLs. This is surprising as normally when NIFTY falls one would logically see unwinding of CALLs  which are ATM. This is not happening this time and hence there could be some bounce back to 6100 levels very soon.

PCR is in oversold region.

Dollar index has fallen and very soon it might go sub-eighty levels. This will help Rupee to appreciate for some time and this could reflect in upward movement of NIFTY.

Exit CALL sell positions if any. Book profit.

POWERGRID

This is one option trade which noone should miss and enter in to the trade before market makers start looking at it.
This contract has all ingredients in place to show 20/30 up-move before this month's expiry. It is very cheap also presently. It is at lower band of Bollinger. It will try to move up from lower band. RSI is below 30 on 9 D chart. CCI is oversold and most importantly in falling market on Friday stock was solid and in fact went up with high volumes. This 93-95 is demand level and stock went down only once in last three years below this level. .

Buy 95 CALL between 0.40-0.70, this could give very good returns if stock crosses 100 in next four days.
Target 3.9/4.5.

Set limit order as this contract is not very liquid.

This stock is good for medium term buy too with 3/6 month horizon, if it crosses 101 very soon it can reach 114/115 levels.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

DISHTV

NIFTY daily chart shows double top pattern. There could be first indication of working of this pattern if NIFTY closes below 5970 tomorrow. If this pattern works then NIFTY could go down by another 200/220 points in next 5/6 trading sessions. Pattern target 5730. So keep shorting NIFTY with 30/40 point SL in future if NIFTY goes below 5965/5970 in cash.

However, PCR is in oversold zone and very high open interest at 6000 PUT will ensure gap up opening of at least 20/25 points tomorrow. Whether NIFTY will stay above 6040 or no, will be decided as usual by Rupee movement. Tomorrow is last trading day for the week and if Rupee slides and if European markets open in red, our NIFTY will go down till 5935 region.
Close above 6050 would temporarily invalidate double top pattern formation and NIFTY might restart northward movement.

DISHTV

DISHTV has also shown a double top pattern on daily chart. Hence if NIFTY goes down, DISHTV should follow.
Playing for double top pattern, buy DISHTV 50 PUT around 0.20/0.30. For further decline stock should close below 52 tomorrow. A small investment of Rs 800/1200 could fetch huge return if pattern works and DISHTV closes around 49 within next couple of trading sessions. The PUT option of 50 will be around 1.2/1.3 for profit booking. Risk takers can hold till expiry.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Lottery trades

NIFTY has taken support at crucial level today.
It can bounce back from this level again within no time. If it opens above 6140 and crosses 6160, very soon it will reach new highs. In spite of today's sharp fall FIIs bought in cash and future segment.
Just watch Rupee movement before market opens tomorrow, if Rupee is down market will be down and vice versa.
However, if NIFTY goes below 6110 do not let go opportunity to short NIFTY future with SL of 30/40 points.Or immediately buy multiple lots of 6100 PUTs and keep booking profit at regular intervals with trailing SL or hold 6100 PUTs till NIFTY crosses 6160 in spot.

It is very easy to lose money in this kind of market. So secure profit you have earned so far by selling CALL options, and do take the risk only if your profit gained (so far in) this month permits you to do these trades.

AXISBANK:
Book profit in AXISBK 1150 CALL at around 10/11. It has strong support near 1070/1080 in cash. If it goes near 1085 in cash, exit call option and book profit.

Book profit in JP ASSOCAT CALL sell contract.

Lottery trades:
KARNATAKA BANK
Buy KTKBANK 95 PUT around 0.50/0.60.
If market falls, PSU banks will lead downfall for sure and KTKBANK has no support till it reaches 75-80 range. It is moving in contracting tangle. If it closes below 97 it can fall very sharply. One can hope this would happen during next 6 trading sessions!

IDFC
IDFC is in channel, to break the channel, it must close below 101. But since this is lottery trade, one can buy 100 PUT at around .90/1.00.
If IDFC goes below 101, it has a potential to slide down up to 88.

These two stocks are worth trading and do have potential to fetch good profit if market continues to move down. But based on high liquidity, election boom, I don't think market has too downside potential. Maybe I am biased and could go wrong in assessment as there is huge unwinding of 6000 PUT today!

But since FIIs are buying we also should have one buy trade for lottery.

TATASTEEL
Buy 400 CALL of TATASTEEL at 2.30/2.50.

Total investment in all lottery trades will be approximately 5000/-. But mind you this is lottery, you will lose entire 5000 in next six trading sessions. But even if one trade clicks among these three, you will be in the money.

I repeat, if your profits for the month permit to take these trades then only do enter in these contracts otherwise in trading, money saved is money gained!

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Axisbank

Sell Axisbank 1150 CALL @ 22

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

RELINFRA and JP ASSOCIAT

There is high likelihood that market stayed sideways today to prepare big 70/80 points movement tomorrow. In fact there is not any trigger for market to go up or even down. But 6200 PUTs are being sold, FIIs are buying in cash and this will ensure market will stay above 6200 (or at least will not go below 6152/6154 as because 6200 PUT is being traded at around 46-48). So very slowly market will reach to next resistance level of 6260/6280.

TATAMOTORS
Book profit in 390 CALL around 7/7.5

Reliance:
Book profit in Reliance 800 PUT

Relinfra:
Sell Relinfra 460 CALL around 2/2.20

JP ASSOCIAT
Sell  JP Associate 52.50 CALL at 1.10/1.20

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Tatamotors

Sell Tatamotors 390 CALL @ 12.20

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Hold for next trade till NIFTY crosses 6260

Entire seven day loss could be covered in just three trading sessions!
Do not short in this market at least for another 70/75 points rise.
Many times this happens nowadays due to public holiday in India. There is lot of foreign money presently flowing in Indian equity. Tons of money is pumped in on Indian public holiday in SGXNIFTY and as a result our NIFTY opens with substantial gap up. Then one sees buying continues throughout the day.

FII bought huge today and DII sold. Only FIIs are making money by toying our markets. There is no retail participation. When retail will start participating market will fall and domestic investor could be strangled in bull trap.
Don't buy any bluechip stock in cash segment.


Also Rupee is supporting, today it appreciated nearly 1.3% and helped NIFTY movement. If Rupee strengthens further  NIFTY Spot will reach to 6260/6270 level by end of the day. About 80% retracement from last fall will complete at around 6260 and if market has to correct, then it will correct from these levels.


NIFTY 6300 CALL will be in the range of 57/63 at that time.
Sell NIFTY 6300 CALL only if you get it above 60. This will be very safe. Even if NIFTY goes beyond 6360 before expiry, it will close around 6300 and one will able to keep  the premium.

Those who want to take lesser risk sell 6400 CALL only if you get it above 25.
This is very safe and one can sell as many 6400 CALL (only if you get at 25) and enjoy low risk income.

Update on short straddle:
Book profit in NIFTY 5750 PUT and average 6250 CALL throughout the day tomorrow.

Buy FSL in cash at current level.
Buy TVS Motors in cash at current levels with six to nine months view for at least 20% more trading upside.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

RELINFRA

Tomorrow is perfect day again for gap up opening. We might see this time and again now till FIIs are playing with our markets. They saw some downside and bought huge in all segments on Friday.
As usual they will take again this rally higher by another 100/150 points.
Do not short in this market unless NIFTY closes below 6050 on closing basis. Lot of addition in open interest of 6000 PUT again. But PCR is still below 1. However, SGXNIFTY and US indices are up and these things will ensure gap up opening.

Normally nowadays markets do trade flat or come down after gap up opening. Tomorrow, it could be function of movement in Indian Rupee. If Rupee appreciates NIFTY will cross 6150 easily. Buy NIFTY future if NIFTY spot crosses 6140 in morning session.

Buy RELINFRA 420 CALL between 8.80-9.00.
Ensure you are buying in an up-trend. It closed at 9.80. but due to long weekend tomorrow morning it could open at 8/8.20. Then buy while it is going up in 8.80-9.00 zone and do not enter when it is coming down towards the 8.80-9.00 range.
Target 11.2/13.80
SL 4.7 for tomorrow.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Short straddle

NIFTY down again today.
It has reached at crucial level. This was earlier resistance level, could this turn in to support, only time will tell.
Some positive events happened after market closed today.
RBI governor gave some relief to Rupee and it went up during last one hour of trade.
SGX NIFTY went up.
Dollar index is marginal negative.
Sunpharma, Cipla, M&M gave expected set of numbers.

On back of this if NIFTY crosses 6030 in cash, exit all bear positions. Still traders would like to dump money in India for very quick gains. This is trade's market. Closing above 6050 could possibly see new highs in near future. If Rupee opens strong tomorrow morning based on market friendly announcement by RBI governor, stay away from shorting anything.

For bears,
PCR is 0.99, generally PCR slides down fast up to o.8 from 1 and NIFTY falls at least by 50/60 points from such levels.
Lot of unwinding of 6000 CALL during last session of the trade.
Though FIIs are buying in cash they are selling futures and hedging their bets. If Rupee still continues to depreciate one can stay with bear positions and carry till Monday.


let us be very safe and secure profit gained so far.
Short straddle.
Sell 900 Reliance CALL between 4.5-5 and Sell 800 Reliance PUT between 3 and 3.50
Delta of this strategy is 2.6 %.
Do this in two lots each.
As long as delta is less than 17-18 you are safe. If it crosses 18, please prepare to exit from one lot each.
This is very safe and 9 out of 10 times options will end worthless and you will able to keep premium.

Sell 6250 NIFTY CALL around 18 and sell 5750 NIFTY PUT around 14.
Delta of this strategy today is 4.6%. This also do in two lots.

About Rs. 100,000 margin investment should yield more than Rs. 3000 (including brokerage)  in just two weeks. This is about 40% return on investment.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update and JP Associate

Tomorrow could be the most important day for bears. If everything goes good for bears then market is set for at least 50 points gap down opening tomorrow.
Dow is down till this time, Singapore NIFTY is down after knowing IIP data, Gold is up, Rupee is in down trend, seven consecutive days are in down trend for NIFTY, PCR is about 1 and NIFTY today crossed very crucial 6020 level.
All eyes will be on SBI, if it does not stop at 1652/1645 levels tomorrow, it could see 1580 post results.

In spite of all negativity FIIs turned buyers today in cash and as well as in futures. So smart money started shifting focus, Lot of brave traders are adding open interest in 6000 PUTs, indicate expiry for this month could be above 6000. Perhaps there is an expectation that our FM will able to bring lot more liquidity from FIIs in near future by relaxing norms/FEMA rules for them and this will again take NIFTY towards 6300.

But being a trader look for tomorrow.
Hold Ambuja Cement.
Book loss in TCS call contract, it is not performing as expected. Exit at around 18-20 levels.
Book profit in SBI after result. if it goes down till 1580 post result 1600 PUT would touch 65/66. It is advisable to book profit in one lot near 47/48, by then in cash SBI would be about 1615/1620. If SBI gives surprise, market would get boost and shall change the trend.
Book profit in DLF.

JP ASSOCIAT
Buy 40 PUT @ 0.80 Target 1.25/1.40

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

AMBUJACEM

It is nice to be on correct side of the trend. Most of the trades in this month are in the right direction. TCS gave chance of profit booking today which we missed, hope to get one more chance tomorrow, keep tight SL of 18, book profit at 50. Rupee went down during closing hours today and this should assist stock specific very positive move in TCS tomorrow.

If NIFTY opens around 6060/65 or below then it could reach 6020/6025.
It is interesting to note in spite of consecutive 5 trading declines in index, there is lot of addition in 6000 and 6100 PE.  This clearly means very soon up-move is expected. Otherwise one would have seen unwinding at 6000/6100 levels today in option table. If there is unwinding during first two hours of trade tomorrow, then NIFTY would go much below 5900 in next couple of days. This is an important indicator to follow.

FIIs are shorting in future but they are still buying in cash.

Keep booking profits in PUT buy contracts. One can hold SBI till Wednesday afternoon, ie till results. Exit DLF, HCLTECH and book profit if not done today.

AMBUJACEM

Buy 170 PUT around 2.50-2.75. Target 3.40/6.10/7.25, in two/three days. SL 1.25

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

SBI, HCLTECH, TCS, DLF and Orchid Chemicals

After good accumulation of funds in trading account by selling CALLs in last two weeks, it is time now to free arms by buying some CALL and PUTs to see whether we can increase our profit. Use strict SL so that profit generated so far is protected.

Few things happened after market closure on Friday.
Tatamotors declared  good set of numbers backed by JLR.
Maharashtra Bank announced that it is not in good shape.
US job data had unexpectedly surged and US markets responded very positively to this booster dose to their economy. This could be a good indication that tapering would happen soon, cheap money will go away. Fed does not have to feed economy with zero rate interest funds. Dollar index gone up by almost half a percentage after US job data, hence Rupee would depreciate on Monday and may cross 63 if dollar strengthens further. Singapore NIFTY did not show any upward movement after job surge information. But one can not predict what our NIFTY would do tomorrow. NIFTY would have strong resistance between 6180-6190 levels, even if there is gap up opening.
If it crosses 6190 in cash then it is advisable to book loss in NIFTY bear positions, if NIFTY goes below 6120 in opening session then look for further downside of 50/60 points quickly. However, the highest open interest at 6000 PUT will ensure, for short term NIFTY does not go below 6000 for sure. So one can expect bounce back from near 6000 levels.  

SBI results are due on Wednesday next week and will impact NIFTY and BankNIFTY. If results (or NPA) are not good, one may see unwinding of 6000 PUT and there could be real down fall in NIFTY after Wednesday.

SBI
Very low risk strategy, if NPA situation is not good, again SBI may dip to 1670 which is about 78% retracement from earlier top. If it breaks this level on result day, then it could go to 1450 very soon. Keeping an eye on this probable scenario one can risk Rs. 2500 and buy 1600 PUT between 20-23 and look for target above 50 on Wednesday afternoon.
Risk averse can but 1550 PUT @ 12 by spending only Rs. 1500/- Target 31/-

HCLTECH:
Buy HCLTECH 1160 CALL around 15-16. Target 23. SL 9

TCS:
Hold TCS 2160 CALL with SL 18

DLF
Buy DLF 140 PUT between 3-3.50, target 5.20/5.25


ORCHID CHEMICALS:
Buy Orchid Chemicals in cash around 54-55 and hold for three to six months for target 75-80.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

NIFTY and TCS

NIFTY tried hard not close in red on third day but could not do so on rumor of S &P downgrade. ECB cut rate and market may bounce back tomorrow on expectations of more liquidity. Surprisingly in spite of rate cut by ECB, till this time US markets are down and Singapore NIFTY is in slight red.
On this background one can sell NIFTY with strict SL 6245 in spot. Or buy 6100 PUTs and say in trade until NIFTY crosses 6245. Keep booking profit at every 20 points by adjusting trailing SL.

TCS
Rupee started going down again and if it crosses 63/$, IT companies would benefit. This is no brainer.
Buy TCS 2150 CALL option of November expiry around 40-43.
Lot size is now 125 so total investment could be around 5000/-
Book profit at 52/53 levels.


Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Some more CALL sell contracts

After 7th August NIFTY has not fallen for three consecutive days. It may not do it tomorrow. All ingredients are in place for an  up-move.
ECB has shown signs of no rate cut and European and US markets went up. NIFTY is on long time support trend-line. SGX NIFTY has already crossed 6275.
Keep an eye on Rupee before market opens at 9 AM. If it goes near 63 tomorrow, NIFTY could see lower levels. It has to go below 6190 in cash for clear break-out towards 6000.

Book profit in SBI put option.
Keep booking profits in CALL sell contracts of November expiration.
If NIFTY goes near 6300 again tomorrow, sell some more NIFTY calls of November expiry.

Sell TATAMOTORS 440 CALL at Rs. 5/5.50. If market goes up, one would able to get this level.
Sell Ranbaxy 470 CALL at around 4.50/5.00
Sell RELINFRA 540 CALL at around Rs. 2.00/2.20


Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

State Bank

SBIN

Buy SBI 1850 PUT in the range of 70-75, Target 91. SL 62, Or hold till results, normally SBI stock declines on result day on NPA issue!

Book profit in 6100 CALL sell contract and 6400 CALL sell contract of November expiry. Market may bounce back, you may see buying at every lower level in this kind of market.
Do not sell NIFTY till it goes below 6218-6220 in cash.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Sell CALLs in first week.

It seems market will keep going up and but now investment could shift to other stocks which had not performed so far. Investors will look for cost effective opportunities now.

Exit Axisbank 1250 CALL sold around 48, book profit.

Sell some CALLs in first week

LT
Stock is in real bull run. It should face very strong resistance in the range of 1020/1030.
Sell 1080 CALL of November expiry in the range of 6.80-8.00

Axisbank
It will be extremely difficult for Axisbank to cross 1400 before November expiry.
Sell Axisbank 1400 CALL at around Rs. 7/-

Tatamotors
Sell Tatamotors 440 CALL between 3.50-3.80.
Tatamotors has strong trend-line resistance around 430/- so average with some more lots if it goes near 430/-

Relinfra:
This stock has done phenomenally well in last two months. It gave breakout on Friday and should move up. However, it might not go up by another 100 Rupees in next 22 trading sessions.

Sell Relinfra 540 CALL at around 2.50/-
Average some more lots if you get at higher level during the week.

If you could sell one lot each of above four stocks, approximately margin money required would be about Rs. 150,000/-

However, about Rs. 10000/- to Rs 11000/- will be credited to your account tomorrow. This will be reasonably safe investment as there is less than 10% chance that these stocks will reach to respective levels. This means there is 90% chance that one would make at least Rs. 10000/- (excluding brokerage) on Rs. 150,000 investment.
This will be more than 7 to 8 times the fix deposit interest income in banks.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Muhurat trading

There is high likelihood that NIFTY will cross all time high on Diwali day. Just hold all positions for tomorrow, if NIFTY continues north movement started in October.
However, do not forget to book profit if in case NIFTY corrects after touching all time high in 6100 CALL sell of November expiry, 6500 CALL sell of December expiry and in AXIS BANK CALL sell of November expiry contracts.
If NIFTY really has to climb further, technically it should first consolidate, move sideways near 6100-6350 region for sometime. And if that has to happen one could see some correction a least of 2 to 3% in coming weeks.

Though there is no retail participation, expectations are very high about up move as option premiums are really very costly. You would have noticed 6500 NIFTY December CALL is being traded at 120/-. This simply means there is high expectation (based on open interest) by market movers that by December market could easily cross 6620!

So don't hold any bear positions till NIFTY goes below 6180/6190 convincingly.
Risk takers can keep buying NIFTY future with small 20 point SL and make money by adjusting trailing SL. But for this one must be having constant eye on trading bolt and not suitable for part time trading activity.

For Muhurat trade, one can buy small quantities of high beta stocks like Tatamotors, JP Associates, IDFC, RCOM and DLF in cash. This should give quick 8-10% upside if NIFTY really moves towards 6500.
One can exit all stocks if NIFTY goes below 6180.



Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

NIFTY and AXISBANK CALL sell contracts

Last month was exceptionally bad. Portfolio strategy miserably failed and we could never recover from that. Moreover, sell on rise strategy did not work at all throughout the month.
We missed opportunity to make money in this stock specific and NIFTY specific rally.

Now to salvage  the situation, first someone should pay us, who can that be other than market.

NIFTY is near all time high and could keep going higher too. No one will able to predict. Markets move on three things 1. Liquidity 2. Sentiments and 3. Fundamentals. There is lot of liquidity. Due to tapering delay it will continue for some time, I don't think sentiments are bullish of Indian investors (FIIs are buying with very short term perspective) and fundamentals are far away from where they should be.

It is seen that after FOMC meeting global markets are going down and investors are only coming to India. This can not be the truth and hence healthy correction is due.

NIFTY
Sell  two lots (or in multiple of two lots)  of NIFTY 6100 CALL between 270-290 of November expiry. This will provide coverage till NIFTY crosses 6370-6390 and this is reasonably safe.

Sell  two lots (or in multiple of two lots)  of NIFTY 6500 CALL between 110-120 of December expiry. This will provide coverage till NIFTY crosses 6610-6620 and this is reasonably safe too.

Moreover these four lots will credit your account by Rs 36000/-.to Rs. 39000/- tomorrow! And at least for time being trading account will look good!!
We can book profit in one lot and then continue with other lot till respective expiry dates, if market condition favors us.

Axisbank:
Sell AXISBANK 1250 Call between 45-50.This will also add another 11000/- in your account tomorrow.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Buy NIFTY 6200 PUTS if NIFTY opens below 6225

This was an exceptional month and most of the trade went on other directions, including lottery trades. NIFTY 6200 PUT buy is also in loss.

Market is rejecting all negative news, everyday there are many examples. Yesterday Ranbaxy posted loss more than Rs. 400 cr, but stock was among top NIFTY gainers today. One can never explain that. Today FED hold tapering and announced continued bond buying program. So easy money will flow to Indian markets as investors will not hesitate to dump money in risky assets like Indian equities for some quick gains.
This was evident even today by huge buying by FII and selling by domestic institutions.
Indians are not believing stock market but foreigners are. NIFTY has given clear break-out today, though it just manged to close below breakout trend-line.

Let us stay away for sometime.
Tomorrow market could see all time high unless there could be profit booking at higher levels. However, surprisingly after FED's announcement US markets and Gold dropped, though they recovered to some extent later, initial fall was significant. US dollar became costly as compared to other currencies like Euro and JPY. Maybe same trend will be seen in morning session in India.
Should there be profit booking, market will open gap down by at least 40-50 points.
Buy NIFTY 6200 PUTS if there is gap down opening below 6225.

Otherwise we don't get even this last chance of recovering some loss in this month. Hard luck!!

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

DLF and NIFTY

As expected today there was a strong rally. This is power of liquidity. Even RBI Governor hiked rates BANKNIFTY gave clear breakout. One could ever explain logic behind this, but all this is sign of fund flowing in Indian market and maybe some good news is yet to come which we are not aware of!!
Trades and especially FIIs are riding on risk, buying at every low levels with tight stop loss. Fortunately for them 3 out of 4 trades are working for them.
Fundamentals are still negative. GDP forecast is reduced. Rupee is much above 60 and it is expected to depreciate from this levels as gold and crude are becoming dearer. According to world bank India is 134th in ranking of ease of doing business.Market does not want to hear that. NIFTY took channel support and went up by more than 125 points during the day.

Now all eyes are on FOMC meeting in US. Perhaps they will now declare tapering date and if it is delayed or postponed, market will see new highs. However, it will be known on Friday after closure of accounts for this month.

Buy DLF 155 call at around 1.5
and
Buy NIFTY 6200 Put around 20/25.

If short covering and roll over completed today, there is high likelihood that NIFTY will close near 6120/6140 for this expiry.
Sell NIFTY 6400 CALLs/6500 CALLs of November expiry. Keep averaging, do not invest all capital in one go.

Disclaimer : This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Exit 6100 CALL sell contracts of October expiry.

Anything can happen tomorrow. But there is high likelihood that RBI would do nothing with key rates.

Arguments for not changing or even lowering Repo.
Rupee has stabilized. If Rapo is lowered or kept same there will be lot of FII investment. More dollars will come in the market, demand for dollar will go down and Rupee will be strengthened. Import will become cheap and inflation will be controlled automatically.
New RBI Governor wants to be market friendly unlike earlier Governor. So there is very high possibility that RBI Governor does not do anything and in the best case scenario he will lower Repo with slight adjustments in MSF.

RBI could not control inflation in spite of all efforts.  And now not curbing the interest rates will not help for the growth which is a paramount concern for the economy. When China is growing by 8.5 percent and so are the other competing economies, India can not stay behind with GDP growth of sub 5%. To boost investors confidence before the elections definitely rates will be cut and this could be the last credit policy before the announcement of election dates.

Market will cheer that. It is merely liquidity driven market. Every month NIFTY is giving 2 to 3% returns, hence till Fed declares tapering, this is ride on risk market. Trader's market. Every trader is buying on dips with small SL and all such trades are successful in recent past.

Buy NIFTY with SL 6040/6030.

Exit 6100 CALL sell contracts of October expiry.
Stay in bear positions of IDFC PUT, Coalindia PUT and Jindal Steel PUT.

Book profits in all other bear positions. Maybe one can see 100 points rally after RBI announcement at 11 AM tomorrow.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

Lottery trades

This month is bad so far. Trading account is in red and hope to recover some loss during last eventful (RBI policy and corporate results) week ahead.

Lottery trades:
IDFC:
Stock is near supply zone.
Buy IDFC 100 PUT between 1.30-1.50. If there is some adverse announcement by RBI Governor, this stock could crash. Perhaps 25 basis point rate cut is already prized-in but if Repo rate cut by 50 points then banking stocks could correct.

DLF:
Let us also prepare a strategy for no rate cut in this policy.
All rate sensitives will find new peaks.
DLF is high beta stock and it could quickly reach 170 levels in an vent of no rate cut.
Buy DLF 160 Call between 1.20-1.50.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

NIFTY and Coal India

NIFTY is still trading in higher zone.
Today's correction from new intermediate high does not look like completion of wave 5 and could see buying at lower levels tomorrow.
It is better to buy NIFTY in the range of 6140-6145 (in SPOT) and look for the target 6200 (in SPOT).

NIFTY CALL sell.
Keep selling NIFTY 6100 CALL of October expiry.
6300 CALL of November expiry
6500 CALL of November expiry. Do this at every higher level.

Coal India
Buy 270 PUT in the range of 1.70-2.00/-

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Loss continued in 3rd consecutive week, let us halt here

Nothing worked in this month so far. Exited longs early and bear positions are not worth even looking at. NIFTY continues to go up. Friday rally was totally unexpected which seems to be based on China's good GDP data!
NIFTY is not considering India's poor GDP growth, high inflation, deteriorated macro environment and going up on China's GDP growth is something worth noticing.
Money saved is money earned. No new trading ideas, Just keep averaging NIFTY Call sell contracts at every high. Rollover if impossible to hold present positions.

Nobody should short anything in this liquidity driven market and buying at such a high level might not fetch good reward. If market does not fall in remaining 9 trading days in this month let us admit, market has totally deceived us and one should be always prepared to expect unexpected from market.


Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

No new trades at least till this weekend!

In liquidity driven market no technical, fundamental explanation works.
Today NIFTY is well set for gap up opening by at least another 40/50 points. Market is absorbing all negatives news. Bearish hanging man pattern formed on Friday was invalidated today. No positive indication from US, IIP data was much less than expectations, inflation data is much higher, Europe, US markets are struggling to perform, nothing great in Reliance results but NIFTY is forming higher highs everyday.
As of now Singapore NIFTY is up by 75 points and our NIFTY must take cue and open at least in the range of 6150/6160 tomorrow. Every lows are being bought. No one is in the mood of profit booking. FIIs are buying in cash segment.

Let us not do any new trades. Buying anything now will be costly and selling anything in this momentum driven market will be silly.

So take trading holidays till this weekend and try to hold all existing positions.


Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss 

Update

Nothing went right for first two weeks and hope things to improve in next two weeks for trades suggested in this blog. Our trading account is in red so far for the month of October.
There could be some profit booking in this  week and might provide chance to exit bear positions.
Book profit in long positions wherever possible.

NIFTY:
Sell 6200 NIFTY CALL of October expiry between 85-95/-
NIFTY is unlikely to close above 6285 at this months expiry and if closes below 6200 one should able to pocket entire premium.

INFOSYS:
Sell INFY 3500 CALL of October expiry between 14-18

Jindal Steel
Buy 230 PUT between 1.50-2.00. Stock is very close to supply region and might slip to 210-200 levels before expiry. Small investment could fetch astonishing returns.

Disclaimer:
This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Book profit in long positions

A perfect stage for 100 points gap up tomorrow.
Europe markets are up. Dow is up by 250 points, Singapore NIFTY is up by 100 points already. Good follow up action after bullish engulfing pattern, FIIs invested about Rs. 1600 cr today in stock market after rest of three days.
NIFTY could cross 6120 tomorrow unless this script is spoiled by INFOSYS results and IIP data.

Book profit in all long positions, reasons are as follows;

1. Market is known to reverse trend when everyone is bullish. 
2. Macros are still negative, high inflation, poor industry growth/closure, recession in real estate, unemployment in high income segment, petrol, diesel prices are going up, no new investments are coming to India, low GDP growth, tapering from US will come some it is only deferred. However, markets in India are neglecting all negative scenarios, IMF rating and this means there is some undercurrent. 
3. 6095/6100/6132 is strong resistance level.
4. volume was low today.
5. RSI (9 D) is near 70, with gap up opening it will be overbought region.
6. Fall could be equally sharp up to 5830/5650.

Keep averaging NIFTY Calls.

Sell 6500 NIFTY CALLs of November expiry between 70-85

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update, INFY

NIFTY will soon cross 6100. Maybe it will do it tomorrow looking at bullish engulfing candlestick pattern formed today on daily chart with very high volume.

But now it is advisable to book profit in bullish positions in our portfolio.

Contract              Buying price                 Present value                          Profit/loss/lot

NIFTY 6150         55                                 95                                          +2000

BN 9800              440                               184                                        -6400

DLF 130              9                                   1.55                                      -7450

TCS 2200            20                                 49.50                                      +7250

Jindal 230            9                                   2.30                                       -6700             
Aurobindo            6.10                               5.85                                      +0
Hero 2100           60                                  59                                         -750
SBI 1600             55                                   58                                        +250

NIFTY  6500 CALL of November expiry: Sell 6500 NIFTY calls in the range of 60-75 tomorrow and day after tomorrow. 

INFY: Everybody is bullish on INFOSYS. Stock markets are known for unexpected results.
Buy INFY 2500 PUT at around 20-25 as a counter-trade. Risk reward ratio could be very good. 


Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update

NIFTY is very reluctant to go down. It recovered very fast today touching previous support around 5825-5830..
India is very good in many aspects, one of the aspect is porosity. There was no reason today for NIFTY to cover 80 points. It did happen perhaps because market movers knew about RBI move about MSF rate cut later today. Many stalwarts were surprised by up-move. To take market up, it has to have only India specific event as Rupee was stable, Europe markets were down, gold and crude oil appreciated, there was no apparent good news but NIFTY was unstoppable during last hour of the trade.
Finally it gave another perfect bullish hammer candlestick pattern today. Hence NIFTY could give 80-100 points gap-up opening. If it convincingly stays above 5950 for some time, one can see levels of 6060 before weekend or maybe even tomorrow.
I don't know impact of MSF cut much but all I can say it could drive positive sentiments among investors. It could last for one/two days!!

Present portfolio:
It is making loss about 8000/-, but worth holding. Still about 17 trading days in this month and anything is possible in this volatile market.
These are sentiments based momentum and if this is still short covering rally, it will be curbed before weekend. Otherwise we will exit portfolio early next week.

Average 6500 NIFTY CALL sell of November expiration date if you could get at higher levels, about 80-100 with big gap up opening.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

NIFTY and Portfolio

NIFTY is going up in an optimism of fund flow to India and EM due to US shut down. Tapering is delayed. Even if US starts working this week NIFTY could again go up thinking now every problem is resolved.
USD index is also going down and helping Rupee. Debt ceiling decision in US on October 17 could govern further market direction. Infosys and TCS results could add to the momentum in short term.
FIIs are buying. It seems NIFTY is all set to touch 6200 again.

This theory could go wrong if shut down in US continues beyond 17. Rupee depreciates on demand from importers.

NIFTY:
Sell 6500 Calls of November expiry in the range of 35-40. Keep averaging at higher levels.

Portfolio:
First week was bad for our portfolio and loss is in the range of 10000/-.
Let us continue with same in next week with following addition:
Buy SBI 1600 PUT between 57-58 and add to portfolio.
Buy M & M 880 Call between 28-30

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update

NIFTY has respected hammer pattern more than expected. I had not anticipated this big move and was not prepared at all.
However, generally any kind of fast progress is risky and not sustainable. Usually share markets will always turn the direction after making everybody complacent and relax. In two days of trading Tuesday and Thursday, everybody is bullish. FIIs also did huge buying today after few days and may extend rally tomorrow morning till 5970-5985 again. Even if there is gap down opening, gap could be filled very soon to touch 5970-5980 levels.

Due to sharp up-move most of the indicators are still in oversold region and this will help to fuel rally further. Nothing had changed between Friday last week and Thursday this week except NIFTY!
In recent history NIFTY moves 200-300 points in four/five days and corrects by similar numbers in two days. So be careful as fast growth could see deep correction.

Our portfolio

Contract              Buying price                 Present value                          Profit/loss/lot

NIFTY 6150       55                                70                                          +750

BN 9800             440                              225                                        -5375

DLF 130             9                                  6.15                                       -2850

TCS 2200           20                                33                                          +3250

 Jindal 230           9                                  5.50                                       -3500            
Aurobindo           6.10                             6.30                                       +400
Hero 2100          60                                54                                           -750

So present loss is around 8000/-
Let us hold, if tomorrow market falls during closing hour and table turns in to green then exit, otherwise hold for next week.

No new trades.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update

On Tuesday NIFTY daily chart gave perfect hammer pattern, which is atypical bullish pattern. Hence, in spite of all odds, there is high likelihood that NIFTY may touch or cross 200 day moving average ie 5840.

But still for the month trend is bearish and market may not sustain at higher levels.

Hold all positions in our portfolio.
NIFTY CALL
BANK NIFTY PUT
Aurobindo CALL
DLF PUT
TCS CALL
HEROMOTOCORP CALL
JINDAL STEEL PUT

Presently portfolio is at very marginal loss or marginal profit based on the prices contracts were executed.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss  

Portfolio for the week- Update

This week it seems market will be governed by global activities such as US funding bill today, and instability in Italy.

Portfolio:
Hold Aurobindo CALL
Hold Jindal Steel PUT
Hold TCS CALL
Hold DLF PUT

Buy HEROMOTOCORP 2100 CALL between 58-62

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Option portfolio for the first week in the series

To start the month enter in some NIFTY sell calls.
Sell NIFTY 6500 Calls of November expiry in the range of 30-40.
Don't sell all lots tomorrow, do invest 40% of the capital allocated for NIFTY CALL sell and keep averaging later if NIFTY goes up substantially from current levels.

As long as NIFTY does not close convincingly below 5800, this is medium term bull run. Though now sentiments are weak, it can change momentum any time during this week.
Also in view of corporate results starting with Infosys, one should not expect too much down side in NIFTY in very near term. This view can fail if Rupee slides down further.

This month we should take some mixed positions with positive view of IT, Pharma and two wheeler companies and negative on Banks, real estate and other rate sensitives. we have to exit all positions together.

Option portfolio for the week.

1. Buy NIFTY 6150 CALL between 55-58
2. Buy BANKNIFTY 9800 PUT in the range of 400-440
3. Buy DLF 130 PUT between 9-10
4. Buy Aurobindiopharma 220 CALL between 6.10-6.40
5. Buy TCS 2200 CALL between 20-22
6. Buy Jindal Steel 230 PUT between 9.00-10.00
7. Buy HEROMOTOCORP 2100 CALL between 65-68

Total investment in the portfolio will be around 60000/-.

If this portfolio anytime earning more than 10%-15% in week (net of  brokerage) , it is better to exit entire portfolio at the same time. Keep analyzing profit/loss of the portfolio everyday rater than gain or loss in an individual option contract.
Since this is first week, time value will not erode too much before Friday. We will analyse portfolio everyday and see whether something to be added or deleted throughout the week.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

Trades for the last day

NIFTY took support at 5800-5820 level and bounced back to day open. It gave hammer candle. This is first bullish sign after three/four days. Lower price was rejected and NIFTY is set for an up-move.

There is lot of liquidity which is supporting up-move. Though major indices in world are in red, Singapore NIFTY recovered and very soon will be in green. This hints today NIFTY may not see huge fall which one would expect based on global cues, profit bookings on expiry date, many gloomy factors in our economy etc.

Book profit in all bear positions if NIFTY goes in support zone 5820-5800 today again. Expect lot of volatility being an expiry day after 2 PM. There could be panic selling/buying and if NIFTY is close to 5800  that time buy 5800 CALL , which should be cheap around 8-10 and buy 5800 PUT, it will be also around 8-12.

In the same manner, if NIFTY is close to 5900 at around 2 PM buy 5900 CALL , which should be cheap around 8-10 and buy 5900 PUT, it will be also around 8-12.

But if in case NIFTY is away from 5800, 5900 + 10 then don't take this trade.

Only if there is substantial profit in your trading account, then invest in OTM CALLs and PUTs today in stocks with very high IV.

Example:
Buy AXISBANK 1000 PUT between 2-3. Total investment Rs. 750/-
Buy Reliance 840 PUTs between 3-4/-
Buy TCS 2000 CALL between 3-4/-
Buy BHEL 150 CALL between 0.30-0.40

Total investment in these contracts will be between 3 to 4 thousands but even if one trade clicks it could add huge profit in your trading account. But be prepared to see your profit of this month eroding by 4000/-



Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

NIFTY

NIFTY has again formed a firm resistance level in the range of 5850 and 5880. It seems unlikely to break this barrier before expiry date this month unless we experience strong gap down opening either tomorrow or day after tomorrow.
FIIs are buying in Index future and selling in stock futures and options. Very broadly this could mean, FIIs are sellers but hedging their sell positions in stocks by buying in NIFTY futures. So their overall bias is negative with caution.

Till this time, though most world markets are in red, Singapore NIFTY is in green!

In these mixed cues hold all positions. Trend in Rupee could decide fate of the day. Banking could be negative and IT could be positive and this might not allow lot of movement in NIFTY.
Perhaps one can buy NIFTY 5900 PUT in the range of 30-40.
If in case NIFTY breaks 5850-5880 range and reaches to next support around 5800-5820, this trade would be profitable.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

SBI

Hold all bear positions till NIFTY goes in the range of 5800-5820. Part book profits then and hold rest for further downside.

SBI
Buy SBI 1600 PUT in the range of 15-25.
Hold till expiry. Perhaps this investment will provide very high returns in small investment.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Strategies for last week of September expiry

Friday as expected RBI governor increased rates, market did not like that, but since there is lot of liquidity in market, one could see buying at every lower level. There are many support levels and NIFTY respected 5930 support on Friday.

Strategies recommended on Friday turned out to be useful and helped trading account to turn in to marginal green.

Last week will be driven by option table.
Only analysis of option table indicates expiry closing might not be much above 6100 and at the same time even in very adverse scenario, it will not go down below 5700. Of course this is very broad range considering only four trading sessions.
PCR is about 1,59 and is near to overbought range.

Dow was down on Friday because though Bernanke continued bond buying program Federal bank can continue support such buying only for next two weeks. American markets were looking for some more assurance from Government which did not come till end of the closing session.

In view of this one can expect gap down opening and negative sentiments mainly towards banking stocks.

Dish TV:
Dish TV is in uptrend. But now very close to ichimoku cloud, RSI is in overbought region. Normally stocks show at least one stiff downward move before further rally. This will be the right time to bet for this short possible down trend at least up to 45.

Buy Dish TV 47.5 PUT between 0.75-0.85. Target 1.85/3.2

IDFC:
This month end IDFC again reached up to 100. It would face strong resistance in the region ie 100-105. If banking stocks under-perform as anticipated, IDFC will again touch 88-89 levels in cash.

Buy IDFC 100 PUT between 2.50-2.90. look for the targets above 8/- before expiry.
If IDFC goes near 88-89 in cash this option contract will give handsome profit. If it goes below 88, next support is 84.


M & M
Finally markets do not hear anybody. Market could go up or down based on many forces and nowadays can be controlled by any single event for more than day or two.
M & M is in up trend. Good monsoon should improve tractor sell and stock could easily cross 945 in short period.

Buy M & M 900 CALL between 9-10.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

NIFTY Bank NIFTY and Axis Bank

Today it is time for Rajan. If he also rides on waive of popular decisions, market could see new highs in spite of two digits inflation, weak Rupee (still above 60), costly crude even after war threats have diminished and unfavorable BOP.  However, if Rajan brings some measures for liquidity squeeze, market will not like that and there will be huge profit booking in banking sectors.
Some banks obviously under RBI guidance started offering house loans and car loans at cheaper rates and if there is major announcement with that effect, in spite of gloomy environment in the country market will show spurt.
So in short there are lot of ifs and buts. At the time of writing this blog Singapore NIFTY is in green. This means trades are buying still at such a high price. This is unusual, nobody will buy anything which is costly howsoever rich he/she is. Hence there is argument for NIFTY going up by another 100/150 points from here.

Nevertheless, if there is rate hikes then NIFTY can see 5800 levels again. And I personally would like to take that bet even if  I went wrong in past 11 days! I never anticipated 20% rally in just 11 trading days, this is what an option writer does not want. The Trading account is in loss as hedged NIFTY buy CALLs were just not enough to absorb losses in Options CALL sale contracts.

Still one week to go and anticipating rally to curb henceforth. Today definitely there will be 100 points move possible in NIFTY after announcement and since I am still holding shorts, wish it to be towards south.

Recommendations for the D day:

Buy NIFTY 6100 CALLs between 70-75 of September expiration or 6200 CALL at 50 of September expiration date before taking any bearish positions mentioned below.

Buy Axisbank 1050 PUT of October expiry between 40-45.
Though yesterday FII permitted to invest in Axisbank, perhaps this stock is still more vulnerable for any adverse announcement from RBI today and shall see correction till 800 very soon. It has huge profit potential.

Buy BankNIFTY 11000 put between 160-170 for September expiry.

Both this trades are in anticipation of rate hike or liquidity squeeze announcements today and plunge in Bank stocks. Nothing has changed in 11 days, NPA concerns and bad debts must be there and bank stocks will collapse faster than others.

NIFTY: Buy 6000 PUT between 30-35. If in case market corrects as mentioned it will take support at 5800-5820 levels before expiry and 6000 PUT of September expiry could trade in the range of 180-220. Risk reward ratio is very good.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update

No doubt there will be huge gap up opening today as Bernanke surprised markets.
For us after many months this is very bad month so far, it is very painful to be on wrong side of the market.

But have patience. Wait. Perhaps this will give our Rajan chance to hike Repo rate or at least CRR tomorrow and market will not like that. Certainly there will be profit booking and market by close of tomorrow could see 5800 levels again!

If rally continues tomorrow we will book loss.
Till then keep averaging NIFTY 6100 and 6400 CALLS of October expiry.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

NIFTY and Axis Bank

As usual market is doing what is unexpected. Rupee is not stabilizing, inflation is high, GDP growth expected below 5% but NIFTY is touching new high every day or at least reluctant to close below previous day's close. It is not closing below 5800-5820. Suddenly 5800-5820 has become buying range for traders. This is bullish signal.

So one should not miss the boat if NIFTY moves upward after Friday's RBI meeting in spite of all odds.
Buy 6000 CALL in the range of 55-60.

Axis Bank:
This stock has risen quickly from 790 levels to 1100/- in spite of investors knowing all the issues!
If market cracks after Friday these kind of stocks could go back to their original levels with more speed than they grew.
Buy Axis Bank 1000 PUT at around 20-25. Target for the day will be around 42, or hold till RBI announcement.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

AMBUJACEM

Market may go up and cheer announcement of Narendrabhai  as PM candidature.
But main trend deciding movements will happen later this week first by QE tapering by Mr. Bernanke followed by our RBI Governor on Friday.
Let us not add any new trades and increase the risk, it is better to carry the quantum of risk which we are presently holding.
Normally every month we get at least one block buster trade, for example IDFC in last month, TCS/SBIN in earlier months etc. This month so far there is none and it made difference in trading account.
However, it is better to stay away from market when you don't have any view rather than trading in the direction of hope and losing money.
So hold TCS CALL, BANK NIFTY 10200 PUT etc. Keep averaging NIFTY CALL sell option contracts if you get at higher prices than your last purchase.

For those who want to try hand (luck?) every day can buy OTM PUT of Ambuja cement.
Buy 165 PUT of AMBUJACEM between 1 to 1.30.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

NIFTY and TCS

Market should give gap up opening tomorrow based on good IIP numbers. Market is in up trend and finding reason for up move. This slightly good IIP numbers could indicate good GDP growth in last quarter and it is enough for NIFTY to cross 6000 mark. Only if Rupee falls further tomorrow during start of the day it will negate this hypothesis.
FIIs again sold today in F & O segment though they were buyers in cash segement. So it seems FIIs till today were negative for short term but bullish in long term. This might change tomorrow based on IIP data.

Buy 5800 PUT between 105-110. One may get it if market gives 70/80 points gap up opening.
Buy TCS 2000 Call @ 60 and Sell TCS 2100 Call around 25-30.
Keep averaging 6100, 6200 and 6300 NIFTY CALLs if NIFTY gives positive opening above 5920. NIFTY will move quickly to 6060 if it crosses 5920 convincingly.



Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update, Reliance and TATAMOTORS

Book profit in Ranbaxy 520 Call sell.
Book profit in JP ASSOCIATE 40 PUT.
Keep averaging and adding 6100 NIFTY call sell option contracts of October expiry and safe traders should sell 6300 and 6400 NIFTY Calls of October expiry at current market price.

FII sold in F & O segment first time after 3rd September. This is worth noticing, if this continues tomorrow then there is reason to think that this rally is coming to an end. Also all indicators are in over bought zone.
The main reason of this rally is Rupee appreciation and that is not due to any fundamental changes but in hope of future actions by new Governor.  In absence of any long term view by RBI, Rupee may slide soon below 65 and market could react quickly. In short, better to book profit in long positions.
Reliance:
If market corrects all those stocks which moved fast will come down in equal speed from where they started up move. Reliance could come to 750 level again. It is buying level.
Buy Reliance 800 PUT of October expiry between 14-16.

TATAMOTORS:
Sell 410 CALL between 1.60-2.10

However, hedging  is must.
Buy some 6500 CALL options of September expiry at around 45/50 to make profit if rally continues till month end.



Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

NIFTY and Yes Bank

The speed with which NIFTY gone up was not expected at all. With this speed and probable gap up opening tomorrow NIFTY will touch 6000 again within next one or two days!
This euphoria will be over by next week and traders have to face ground realities of weakness in fundamentals and out come of QE easing.

Keep averaging NIFTY 6100 sell CALLs October expiry.
One can sell 6400 NIFTY Calls of October expiry at current price 52 to 60. This is more safe.
Sell NIFTY 6100 NIFTY Calls of September expiry between 54-60.

Yes Bank
Sell Yes Bank 360 Call between 6.50-7.00


Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Ranbaxy

Book profit in Yes Bank and BHEL.

Ranbaxy:
Ranbaxy may not go beyond 480 in this series. Sell Ranbaxy 520 CALLs between 8-10.

One can expect lot of volatility after 2 pm today due to extended weekend ahead. It is better to stay away and do preparations for next trades after market resumes on Tuesday.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss 

Ranbaxy

Market is indecisive. It moves up for three days and loses all gain in one day. It has done this three times in last 20 trading days.
General sentiments are weak and traders are selling at every height.
Stick to defensive stocks (Pharma, FMCG), news based stocks JP Associates) , metal stocks (BHEL) and some selected auto stocks in shaky market.

Ranbaxy: It could give closing above 480.

Buy Ranbaxy 450 CALL at around 32/33 and sell 480 CALL around 19/20.
Maximum loss could be 6000/- but trade has profit potential 9000.

Don't wait till Rs. 9000 profit and exit the trade if gained 2% profit over investment.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

ITC and JP Associate

Exit Maruti strategy at marginal loss.
Book profit in IDFC PUT sell

ITC can rally up to 340
Buy ITC 320 CALL at around 12 and sell ITC 340 CALL around Rs 5/-
If ITC closes above 340 at expiry maximum profit could be 13000/- or if closes below 320 maximum loss will be 7000/-
Risk reward ratio is good. One need not wait till expiry and should book profit, if trade is giving more than 2% return on investment anytime before the expiry.

Average NIFTY 6100 lots. or Sell 6200 October expiry NIFTY call around 20/-

JPAssociate:
Sell JP Associate 40 PUT between 4.5 and 5. SL 6.5, Target 2.6/-

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Trades for new series

After good last month, let us begin with baby steps in new series.
As usual first week must be used by option trader for CALL sell purposes, to take maximum advantage of time value.

Sell Tatamotors 360 CALL of September expiry series between 1.25-1.50
Sell Reliance 960 CALL of September expiry series between 4-5.
Though both these stocks are in somewhat uptrend, the probability of  these stocks reaching 360 and 960 respectively is less than 10%. Hence there is more than 90% chance that one can earn about Rs. 1000/- per trade by investing approximately Rs. 30000 to 40000 in margin money for less than 25 days. This is more than 4 times of bank FD interest!
Sell NIFTY 6100 CALL of October expiry between 20-23. Do not sell all CALL tomorrow. If NIFTY goes above 5550, then average some more 6100 CALLs.

Safe trades should enter in only above three trades (Tatamotors, Reliance and NIFTY) and below YESBANK strategy..

Low risk strategy for Yes Bank: Yes bank is in down trend, but it could give pull back up to 280/290.
Buy 250 CALL of Yesbank at around 20/-
Sell 290 CALL at around 7-8
Sell 180 PUT  between 3-4
Sell 170 PUT between 2-3

Exit this strategy only if YESBANK slips below 200, with very marginal loss. profit potential is 15000 to 17000 if YESBANK crosses 290 at the time of expiry.

BHEL:
Risk takers can buy BHEL 125 CALL only if it crosses 6.25.

IDFC:
It seems IDFC formed bottom around 75.
Sell IDFC 75 PUT in the range of 3.30-4.20. Target 2.20/1.55. Book loss if IDFC goes below 75 in cash.

Short term trading portfolio:
Buy Bajaj-Auto October future in the range of 1825-1840 and simultaneously buy 1850 PUT of September expiry between 60-70. Kindly check values of the option contracts due to less liquidity.
Maximum loss could be around 10000/- but this trade has unlimited profit potential.

Sell Maruti October future in the range of 1240-1230 and simultaneously buy 1250 September series CALL in the range of 55-65. Maximum loss could be 8000/9000 but this trade has unlimited profit potential.

Important: If due to gap up opening, if prices are not in the desired range then don't enter in to the trade.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Maruti and Relinfra

Market went down like anything triggered by food security bill.
If there is short covering in next two days again it can reach up to 5440.

Maruti:
One might have to book loss. At just managed today to stay within Wolf wave pattern but it seems difficult to cross 1330 for break even.

Relinfra:
Buy 340 CALL between 2.5-3.00.
If market goes up expect target of 10.


Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

MARUTI and TATASTEEL

Market may try and consolidate.  It will go up at least till expiry. It will be very volatile week and expect unexpected.

Maruti

Remain in trade with positive bias. Applying Wolfe Wave theory Maruti should take target of 1420-1440 in short time. Buy Maruti 1300 CALL in the range of 30-35. Those who are already in this trade better to hold Book part profit in the range of 50/56. Final target around 100-105!

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B7ZW-6KNaQjsc2VBOVcwdzJtTDA/edit
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B7ZW-6KNaQjsZlpITkpucnVQUDg/edit?usp=sharing

Tatasteel Bull spread strategy

It has given clear breakout from channel. Trading around 285. It is about to cross ichimoku cloud on daily chart. See the link.

Buy 295 CALL at around 3 and sell 305 CALL between 1 to 1.30.
Maximum loss could be 2000/- and maximum profit potential about 8000/-
Those who would can risk Rs. 3000/- can buy TATASTEEL around Rs. 3/-. Book profit at Rs. 4.50/5.00

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B7ZW-6KNaQjsYkFYWTVfclY5dE0/edit?usp=sharing

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.