DLF

Lottery trade for today

Buy DLF 165 CALL of January expiration around Rs. 1-1.20.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Strategies for next 7/8 trading sessions

After closing this month in profit, be very careful in next month. It is budget month, expect very high volatility. Practically budget will be after February expiry but traders will align their positions in anticipation of budgetary provisions.

FOMC meetings, Delhi election results will add to the volatility. No position should be naked this month.

Keep booking small profits.
I will try to update blog very regularly.

Our three trades (strategies) for next few trading sessions are as follows.
1)   RPOWER Strategy which was blogged yesterday.
2)   TATAMOTORS:

Stock is in uptrend.

Buy 600 CALL
Sell 630 CALL and Sell 570 PUT

At least in the beginning no premium should be paid from the pocket. If stock crosses 609-610 in cash, it will reach 630 in short time.


3) INFY:
Due to FIIs inflow and other obvious reasons Rupee will be appreciated till 60/-. IT stocks might not do well.
Buy 2100 PUT of INFY and sell 2000 PUT of INFY.
Maximum loss could be  around 5000/- and maximum profit potential 19000/-


Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.
          

RPOWER strategy

Update:
Booked profit in most of the positions and holding TATASTEEL 420 CALL and hoping it to do something extraordinary!
From OI 420 seems to be very strong resistance.

Also trend-line resistance around 425. Perhaps stock will not go beyond 420 in this series and I have to forgo my premium.


Market is in uptrend.
It will stay so perhaps till Delhi poll results. If BJP does well on February 10, NIFTY will find reason for further up-move.

As option trader we should able to find low risk strategies.

One of the good strategy could be the trades in RPOWER.
Stock is trading near demand zone.
OI table and buying with high volume on Friday, shows increased interest of traders. Stock is also trading above key averages.

One can select one of the option strategies below:
1) Buy 70 CALL of RPOWER around 1.7-1.8 of February expiration. Maximum loss around 7000/- but unlimited profit potential.
Or
2) Buy 70 CALL of RPOWER around 1.7-1.8 of February expiration and sell 75 CALL of RPOWER around 0.90-1.00 of February expiration. Here maximum loss could be around 4000/- and maximum profit potential around 17000/-

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

One more lottery trade: Tatasteel

Book profit in ICICI BANK lottery trade.

Tatasteel
Buy OTM CALL of Tatasteel
Buy 420 CALL between 3.50-4.00

Disclaimer: This blog does not take responsibility of your profit/loss

Lottery trade: ICICIBANK

So far if someone had considered all recommendations, there must be reasonably good profit. One can take a lottery trade and shut the account for this month.

ICICIBANK

ICICI is consolidating at present range. It is at upper end of the channel. It would have strong resistance around 371, but if crosses that resistance, maybe 400 is in sight.
Interest rates are now adjusted and perhaps all banks could lose bit of a steam, but ICICI's quarterly results will be on January 30 (next day of this month's expiry) and traders might add positions in expectations of good results.

Buy ICICI 370 CALL around 2-2.50. Total investment will be less than 3000/-
This is pure lottery trade. You should forget this trade after entering in to it. If your this month's profit does not permit to invest in this trade, then don't do it.

ONGC:
Based on F & O data, OI has decreased with decrease in price, indicates long liquidation. This is bearish sign. I am holding ONGC 360 CALL, I will find possibility to exit on Monday/Tuesday, if price struggle to cross 355.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

Sell 150 quantity NIFTY 8500 CALL around 30-36 and buy one AXISBANK 500 CALL

NIFTY trades are very dangerous now. In one day NIFTY shows movement of 100 points and it is good enough to wipe out trading account.
Work only in strategies.

See OI table of Jan 7 and Jan 9 January.

Jan 07

Jan 09

One thing is very noticeable, though NIFTY covered 200 points in two days, Friday January 09 seen lot of long unwinding in CALL options with decrease in OI. This gives clear signal that FIIs (who are very prominent in derivative segment) are not very bullish on NIFTY. In fact they are net sellers in cash segments. At the same time lot of addition of PUTs around 8100 which is trading around 50, indicates FIIs are reasonably certain about limited downside, maximum till 8050-8100.

NIFTY Chart

If NIFTY manages to hold on Friday's low, 8550 is possible in near term.

Axis Bank:

It just managed to bounce back from short term support on Friday, The level between 482-487 is very important for bulls.
Results are scheduled on January 16.
If they are reasonably good, AXISBANK could cross 540.

Based on this assumptions:
Sell 150 quantity NIFTY 8500 CALL around 30-36 and buy one lot of AXISBANK 500 CALL Hold the strategy till AXISBANK results.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss


  

Sell AXISBANK 500 PUT and Sell SBIN 280 PUT and Buy DLF 120 PUT

Assumptions went wrong and hence the trade in SBI.
It was envisaged that we have reached to a reversal point and must be cautious. However, most of the indicators were positive hence it was thought if oil price remains near $60/b, NIFTY will continue uptrend.
But even though we have all positive sentiments and possibility of rate cut, NIFTY came down with threatening speed today.
Still 7950-8000 should act as a huge support as per OI table. Book profit in 8100 PUTs.
We are holding SBI 315 PUT hoping reversal as it is just on support line today.


Revised strategy:
Go long in banking and short in high beta infrastructure stock.
Stocks like AXISBANK and SBI could recover fast because they had fallen to quickly today.

Based on this, strategy could be
Sell AXISBANK 500 PUT around 16 and Sell SBIN 280 PUT around 3.
Buy DLF 120 PUT around 2-2.50.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update

NIFTY is maintaining positive momentum. It has reached in resistance zone but one can never be certain about a reversal.
For being cautious, one should exit from

1. Auropharma
2. AXISBANK 
3. NIFTY 8300 PUT sell contracts. Book profits if not booked earlier.
4. and Book marginal loss in 8500 CALL sell contract too.

NIFTY

8485-8550 is a band from where it could turn back. See chart.

Lot of addition in 8400 PUTs will ensure NIFTY will cross 8400 on Monday.

No new trade in NIFTY at present, but would try to sell OTM CALLs if NIFTY goes above 8550 during the week.


SBIN:
Merger with IDBI could have positive impact? Could it help to reduce NPAs? I am not sure looking at OI table on Friday. I am worried about 315 PUT sell contract and if stock is not moving in desired direction I will try to exit.

Lot of addition at higher strike CALL contracts. Whether they are CALL sell contracts or they are CALL buyers? I have not noticed considerable increase in IVs and I am afraid to brand them as buyers.

The stock as gone up with volumes on Friday, but could not sustain at higher levels and closed near day open. All this is not very pleasant situation for the bulls. Let us decide about SBIN on Monday.
Who knows investors could find SBIN good as a long term bet and stock could move past 320, giving us profit booking opportunity?
2.5 shares of IDBI stock holder is going to get one SBI stock. IDBI trading at much discounted price and could see good positive momentum compared to SBI on Monday.

ONGC:
It started picking up.

Hold 360 CALL contract and try to book profit near 12-15 zone during next week.
This stock has potential to cross 400 in cash in near future.

No new positions on Monday.
Look for selling OTM CALLS in NIFTY if NIFTY goes near 8550.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Sell SBIN 315 PUT around 9-10

One can hold all trades viz NIFTY 8500 CALL, NIFTY 8300 PUT, ONGC, AUROPHARMA, VOLTAS  and AXISBANK.
If appropriate one can even book profit if desired, it is completely up to risk appetite of an individual.

SBIN

SBIN is showing sign of probable up-move. Trading above PIVOT point.
Sell 315 PUT around 9-10 and to hedge the bet, buy 8100 NIFTY PUTs (2 lots).

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss