Sell NIFTY CALLs

Today was an unusual trading day. Market did not react to rate hike by FED! All market pundits are now stating 25 to 50 bps rate hike by FED was anticipated or was known to everybody and hence all markets in world have gone up. This does not gel. In all previous local and global such experiences/events, at least there was a strong knee-jerk reaction. What was different this time? Wasn't this a mega event? So I think real reaction is yet to come. And now it will come slowly but decisively.
Also 7850-7874 is another wall and supply zone. All indicators are in overbought zone, so either there will be time correction or price correction, before NIFTY moves upward again.

So our strategy should be:
Sell NIFTY 2 lots  7600 CALLs around 260-270.
Sell NIFTY 2 lots  7800 CALLs around 105-115.

Stop loss should be Rs. 10000/- for each contract.

FIIs bought huge in cash segment today after lot of gap and DIIs were net sellers. This is not good signal for bears. If this continues tomorrow we have to exit soon.

One should try and hold these positions for couple of days. Because rate hike implications will be evaluated by all traders rationally by then. For a layman, rate hike by FED will make dollar dearer, it means for us Rupee will depreciate further. It could cross 70 soon. Inflation would go up as India is net importer. Falling oil prices might not be too beneficial because drop in oil price will be compensated by falling Rupee. So in broad term I see some negativity and it should reflect in NIFTY during next week.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take responsibility of your profit/loss

Trades before FED decision

NIFTY is in uptrend.
But uptrend on weak volumes. Today, FIIs were net sellers again in cash segment. NIFTY heavyweights are going up. Bank Nifty is not so much supportive so far.
Last 15 days FIIs are booking profits/exiting and DIIs are buying equally huge quantities. This seems to me bit risky for present NIFTY uptrend based on the history. Generally NIFTY followed FIIs or vice versa.

What is the best trade under these circumstances?
Those who want to risk Rs. 18000/-, the best strategy would be to buy 16600 PUT of Bank NIFTY around 300 and buy 16600 CALL of Bank Nifty around 300/-
Maximum loss will be Rs 18000/- but would have unlimited profit potential based on volatile market ahead.

Bank Nifty could go to 14600 in short time after FED rate hike, unpromising Parliamentary session and has potential to fetch hefty profit.
Another cost effective trading option is in NIFTY. 7400 PUT is being traded around 16. Buy it. Even if one invests Rs. 4500-5000, there is possibility of huge profit.

In short, chose one of the following trades:
Straddle in BN: Buy 16600 PUT and CALL of Bank NIFTY both around 300/-
Buy 7400 NIFTY PUTs (4 los) around 16-17.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take responsibility of your profit/loss.

Few trades: Only for Wednesday

NIFTY should show some resistance at 7715-7725 levels, this was earlier support, which could now act as a resistance. Once it is crossed, next halt will be 7760 and till then one should able to make money in below contracts.

It seems markets have already aligned with rate hike by FED. Or this could be last chance for traders to cover their shorts. Picture will be very clear by Friday.
Do not carry any position for next day for the time-being.

But one can do day trading.
1.) Sell Axisbank 420 PUT around 6
2.) Sell TATAMOTORS 360 PUT around 4.50-5.00.
To cover the risk
3.) Sell DLF 120 CALL around 1.20.

Exit all trades if total profit is more than Rs. 5000/- and if loss is more than Rs. 4000/-
Be alert tomorrow.
The implied volatility could go up anytime during the day and even if there is not much movement in stock price, option could be dearer by couple of percentages.

If you find this risky, then simply take rest and enjoy the day!

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

Buy OTM PUT of LT, preferably 1200 PUT

Market is moving southwards.
Maybe some recovery could be seen in beginning of the week but overall trend is down.
LT is very weak.
Buy 1200 PUT between 5-6. Mere Rs. 1600-1800 investment could bring mega bugs.
This could turn out to be a lottery trade!

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

Bearspread strategy in NIFTY

We closed all our positions.

Booked profit earlier in NIFTY option contracts.

DishTV strategy: Booked profit
TataMotors+SBI+ BN: Booked profit
TCS: Booked loss


Decided not to take any new position immediately.
Global cues are negative. FIIs are selling. Now 7712 will act as a resistance. If NIFTY goes below 7500, no GST/fruitful parliament sessions/rate hike would take NIFTY to 7200 quickly.

Bearspread strategy in NIFTY:
But one should forget this after entry in to the trade.

Buy two lots of 7400 PUTs and sell 2 lots of 7200 PUT.
Total risk would be around 3500/- but profit potential will be more than Rs. 23000/-. Even if there is 10% probability that NIFTY will close below 7360 (Break-even point) it is worth taking this trade.


Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

No new trades on Monday!

What is priced in in current NIFTY fall? Rate hike by FED or GST?

If rate hike worries are already discounted by market then clearly GST news will push the market to higher levels on Monday. Also good global cues would definitely see at least gap up opening.

As a trader what is most important for NIFTY is level 7845-7860.

Maybe 7845-7860 would provide good selling opportunity again with strict SL.

Some of the stocks would benefit due to GST One of them is surely DishTV and another SBI

In my view DishTV would benefit due to uniform tax regimen across the country and the most widely used network will able to increase profit margin due to GST.
Also all unorganised operators (cable TV operators) in small cities have to pay equal tax as that of DishTV and there will be level playing field for all DTH operators.
DishTV will score more marks here.
One can buy DishTV in cash with one year view with SL 94.

SBI: If GST to be collected one of the chanel will be SBI. Investors will like it and stock would easily touch 250 in very short time.

On Monday we will not take new trades, But will try and exit DishTV and SBI at profit or at cost.

New trades will be taken after analysis on Tuesday.
Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

Further Update

NIFTY broke support. FIIs sold again in cash.
If NIFTY stays below 7870 then further downside is possible.
Hold all bear positions.

Update:
Dr. Reddys 3300 CALL contract:
Book profit.

DishTV strategy:
We are holding this strategy.

BN+ TATAMOTORS+ SBI strategy:
Book profit in TATAMOTORS CALL and cover the cost of the strategy. Then book profit in SBI 245 PUT.


No new strategy tomorrow. If FED hikes rate, lower levels are possible. So hold our strategies but secure profit as advised.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit or loss. 

Update

NIFTY is consolidating and showing all signs of up move any time but it is not happening for long. Today even FIIs were net buyers in cash after 13-14 trading session though net buying is very small. NIFTY is bouncing time and again from trend-line supports. Tomorrow (Thursday) trendline support is around 7908-7913.

So far for us except Dr. Reddys all trades are working fine.

1. Dr Reddys has given dead cat bounce but if it goes above 3330, better to exit the trade. Alternatively keep stop loss of Rs. 5k-6k which is around 112-115 for 3300 CALL contract.
2. Continue trade in DishTV strategy, 
3. Continue SBIN, TATAMOTORS and BN combined trade strategy. 

No new trades.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

New trading strategy for rest of the week

After RBI policy Bank NIFTY might not do well for some time. It is already in overbought region.
Traders are aligning trades hoping GST would get through the Loksabha and NIFTY would cross 8200. If that does not happen Bank NIFTY would go down to 16000 again.

We book profit in NIFTY PUT sell contract and entered DishTV bear spread.

New trade:
Buy SBI 245 PUT @ around Rs. 5/-
Buy BN 18100 CALL @ around 130-140
So total outgo will be around 14000-15000/-

To recover this sell TATAMOTORS 430 CALL.

In short
Buy SBI 245 PUT @ around Rs. 5/-
Buy BankNifty 18100 CALL @ around 130-140
Sell TATAMOTORS 430 CALL around 10/-

Wait before you enter in to trades during early morning hours. Maybe market would open gap up and prices are not at all in the trading range. Around 8025 is very crucial resistance for NIFTY. It is about 50% of last fall till 7714-7715. So NIFTY might show urgency to concur 8025. Ideally one should enter trades near to 8025 for better returns and low risk.

Also with this trade and other earlier active trades remember Rs. 30000/- SL.
If anytime we come across this magic number, we will stop trading for the month!

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

Bear spread strategy in DishTV

It is better to book profit before RBI policy in 8000 or 7800 PUT sell contract. FIIs are constantly selling in cash. Not many times market could sustain at high levels without FIIs contribution in cash segment.

Very volatile month ahead due to Parliamentary sessions and rumors of rate hike by FED, one should be careful in writing options henceforth. Do not trade in options without strategy.

So first, book profit in NIFTY PUT sell contract.

Replace NIFTY trade with Dish TV
DishTV is near long term resistance line.
Maximum OI at 100 CALL which is trading around 3.4 suggest DishTv might not pass 113 very soon.

Very low risk strategy could be as follows:
Bear spread.
Buy 105 PUT contract around 2.30 of Dish TV and sell 100 PUT contract around 1.10.
Maximum loss could be near Rs. 6000/- and profit potential of Rs. 18000/- .
Very good risk reward ratio.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take responsibility of your profit/loss. 

First strategy for the month

Last month some CALL buy and PUT buy decisions went wrong and it dented our profit.
New month has started and as a trader we should forget successes or failures last month and start trading all over again.

Basic assumptions, and money management rules once again.

1. One would have at least 500 thousand (5 lacs) to 600 thousand (6 lacs) in a trading account. 
2. Maximum loss should not be more than Rs. 30000/- per month.
3. One complete strategy should not make loss more than 10K to 12K.

With this first complete strategy of the month is as follows.

1. Sell 8000 NIFTY PUT of December expiration two lots.
2. Sell DR REDDYS 3300 CALL of December expiration 1 lot around 75-85.
3. Buy TCS 2300 PUT of December expiration 1 lot around 30/-

Strictly monitor stop loss of combined three trades above. Any moment if loss goes above 10,000/- just prepare to exit.
Alternatively, one can wait till loss reaches to 30 K, provided he/she is committed for not taking any other trade during the entire month. Choice is yours.

If profit is above Rs. 5000/- then don't hesitate to book the profit.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Buy IFCI 27.5 CALL around 0.05-0.10, but only if profit of this month permits.

NIFTY is trading near lower end of the triangle. Breaking below 7810, conservatively below 7790 could open flood gate at downside.
If NIFTY goes below 7760 then one should book loss in 7800 PUT sell contract of next month expiration. But hopefully by then DISHTV PUT contract should able to compensate for the loss in NIFTY 7800 PUT contracts.

FIIs are selling, general tone is negative, but certainly NIFTY has taken halt in downtrend so far. It might stay so till expiration. Even though FIIs are net sellers, global cues are negative, NIFTY is able to sustain at 7800 + levels. This is good sign for bulls.

No new trades. But for those who have to take trade and can not sit idle, should buy IFCI 27.5 CALL around 0.05-0.10. Just Rs. 2000/- investment could make one richer by Rs. 40-50K!!
If your profit permits then don't miss this opportunity.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

New positions

FIIs are mainly sellers in cash.
As per EW, this could be 4th wave and should not go above 7995.60 in this series.
Global cues are positive and hence one can expect positive opening on Monday. Try and sell NIFTY CALLs of 8000 strike price around 7950 NIFTY levels for next month expiration.

One can sell 7800 PUT contract for next month expiration till NIFTY is above 7810.
Some stocks could show lot of volatility.
One of them could be Dish TV.
Buy DishTV 100 PUT contract and 105 CALL contract.
Total investment could be Rs. 5000/-

Summary of positions could be as follows.

1. Sell 2 lots of 7800 PUT contract of December expiration. Your trading account will be credited by around Rs. 17000-18000. See 75-90 levels in next couple of days, that could be time to exit once. 
2. Buy 105 DISH TV CALL and 100 DISH TV PUT contract. Total outgo will be about Rs. 5000/-

Hold all these positions till total loss does not go beyond Rs. 15000/-

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss


       

One may have to book loss in JP.

JP Associat posted loss more than Rs. 500 Cr. in this quarter too. This is not good sign for the stock. We have to book loss in JP 15 CALL option contract.

NIFTY would be range bound from here. Might not see lower levels than 7500 and above 8000 in this series.
Maximum OI in 7700 PUT and 8000 CALL will make sure this range bound movement till expiration.
However, in Bank one can see there is clear trend for next couple of days at least.

1. Buy ICICIBANK future and sell SBI future. OR
2. Sell SBI 240 CALL @ around 6/- and Sell ICICIBANK 260 PUT around 4.20-4.50.
3. Also one can sell HDFC 1140 PUT contract around Rs. 6-6.50. 

Exit the trade if maximum loss is more than Rs. 8-9 thousand.


Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

NIFTY is not sustaining at higher levels, sell NIFTY OTM CALL options.

Good profit booking opportunities in DLF and NIFTY Call sell contracts. We booked profit in these strategies.
Though on Muhurat trading NIFTY could cover around 40 odd points, over all trend is negative. One can hold short positions easily till NIFTY does not cross 8010 in cash. Till then one can earn money in intra-day by writing NIFTY OTM CALL contracts.

If brokerage permits write 8100 CALL options of November expiration.

JP ASSOCIAT results to be declared on Saturday, if something comes up positive in those results, our option contract could provide an opportunity to exit on Monday or we have to prepare to book loss!

TCS strategy: Hold. Presently this strategy is in marginal loss.

Axis bank looks good for long term (more than one year) or for medium term ( 3 months to 1 year) investment perspective.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update

All media sources are expecting NIFTY to touch 7600-7500 in very short term. Two main reasons, first such defeat for BJP was not expected by trades seems and rate hike by FED is almost certain in December.
Generally market would move in opposite direction than general expectations. But one never know.

We are carrying positions in JP Associate CALL contract, which would go in loss if market falls and we expect DLF bear spread strategy to end in profit if market goes down.
But in general, DLF might not experience very negative impact too due to election outcome in Bihar. Government might go little slow over such sensitive issues and will try to organise house first, before the next election. It will be interesting to see movement in DLF tomorrow. Of course we expect it to fall!!

No new trades.
Keep booking profit in TCS, NIFTY CALL sell, DLF option contracts. Book loss in JP if you can't hold.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Buy DLF 115 PUT around 4.50 and sell DLF 105 PUT around 1.5.

At the time of writing this blog, it seems from exit polls that BJP will emerge as the largest party in Bihar. Though it would be difficult for them to form Government.

Market would recover to some extent but if BJP fails to form Government, it would eventually go down.

Due to increase in lot sizes it becomes nowadays very difficult to adjust trades for small timer and small sized traders like us. Especially for those with very low risk taking ability.

DLF is high beta stock,
If market falls it will go to near 100 again.

If one has exited from all trades and total loss so far is not Rs. 30000/-, then enter in bear spread strategy.

Buy DLF 115 PUT around 4.50 and sell DLF 105 PUT around 1.5. Maximum loss could be around 15000/- and profit potential around 35000/-

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss. 

Only update. No new trades till Monday

No new trades.
Book profit in Reliance 900 PUT if not booked earlier.
Tatamotors had given good profit booking opportunity yesterday. Those who could not have latched on to it must book loss. Or sell 390 PUT and hold till combined loss crosses Rs. 10000/-.
Hold JPASSOCIAT 15 CALL, chances of this trade making money is diminishing now, but let us hope against hope.
Lot of volatility can be expected till Monday, ie election results and we are very light on the trades.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Updates and new trades

NIFTY might bounce back as long as it stays above 7960.

Next halt for NIFTY could be around 8280-8300. 

Many stocks shown positive diversion. FIIs sold in cash even today. 

Update:

1. NIFTY 8000 CALLs: We booked profit, one may book profit tomorrow morning.
2. Reliance PUT sell: One may hold or could book profit.
3. KTK Bank: We are not in this trade but if loss is more than Rs. 5000/- it is better to exit, due to increased lot size we have to manage trades very carefully.

New trades:

1. Buy JPASSOCIATE 15 CALL around Rs. 0.30.
2. TCS strategy: TCS is now scheduled for big move. I don't know which direction it would take! Buy 2400 PUT and at the same time buy 2650 CALL at market price, total investment will be around Rs. 5000/- and total risk will be around Rs. 5000/- with unlimited profit potential.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

 

Three trades to start the month

Last month was good.
We followed all trading and money management rules.

Finally NIFTY is in downtrend.
FIIs started selling heavily in cash. Some of the banks are doing very well though. Next trigger will be election results.

We already sold 2 lots of NIFTY 8000 CALLs around 220-230.
One can still be negative on NIFTY but should be very careful.

Trades for Monday, or perhaps for next couple of days could be.

1. Sell NIFTY 8000 CALLs 2 lots ie 150 quantity.
2. Sell Reliance 900 PUT around 6.50, 1 lot, but prepare to exit the trade if loss is more than Rs. 4000/- here. Normally Reliance would move in market direction. After long time I am noticing that they are not in random.
3. Buy KTK Bank 135 CALL around Rs. 3/-

Manage trades such that total month should not result in loss more than Rs. 30,000/-. Keep booking small profits due to election result month.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Those who can not stay away from trading they can buy DISHTV PUT of strike price 100 at 0.20/-.

NIFTY is not willing to bow down. Today it halted on lower channel support. Tomorrow 8200 level is important to watch.If it goes below 8200-8180 band then only floodgate would open for downside otherwise uptrend would continue.
FOMC meeting is being held on 27/ 28 October and coupled by expiry date, big volatility could be expected on the last day.
It is better to stay away.
Be very light on CALL/PUT sell positions. Market is looking for an opportunity to blast on positive side.
FIIs are buying, historically especially October and many times November are good months for the market.

For investors, 8450-8500 is very critical level for NIFTY. If it failed to cross this layer then it then in 2016, downfall till 6640 can not be excluded. Keep accumulating good stocks for long term investment.

Those who can not stay away from trading they can buy DISHTV PUT for strike price 100 at 0.20/-.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.  

Lottery trade: If your profit for this month permits then buy ITC 355 PUT between 3-4.

Almost all 4 trading weeks did not support us in terms of market direction. You would have noticed we were always against the major NIFTY trend. The trend was up and we were hoping NIFTY to correct!
We were against FIIs.
But still it was just enough to make profit. It is beauty of option trading in strategies.

Yesterday recommendation was sell NIFTY 7800 CALLs and Buy ANDHRABANK CALL: We are holding the strategy as it is still showing overall profit.

NIFTY is very predictable in last four trading sessions. Starts with upper band of channel based on global cues, does not sustain major resistance around 8340, goes down and then recovers a bit. Today there was not much recovery though. But as long as NIFTY is trading above above 8215 uptrend continues. Maybe it will cross upper limit tomorrow. For tomorrow 8190 is lower channel support.

Lottery trade: If your profit for this month permits then buy ITC 355 PUT between 3-4.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

The strategy for Monday 26 October 2015

Update:
Reliance gave good profit booking opportunity on Friday.

Everyday NIFTY is honoring upper line of channel. It has done it in eight times in past 12 trading sessions.  This might be indicating that NIFTY is looking forward to slightly good news to cross 8350-8370 band. It again might touch this band on Monday. Global markets closed positive on Monday. The lower line of channel is around 8190.

We can not control market but can control us. FIIs are buying continuously. There must be something which we don't know or unable to anticipate. BN is in very narrow range. If NIFTY has to go up BN must participate.

So strategy for Monday 26 October could be,
Sell 4 lots of NIFTY 7800 CALLs around 500-550, and buy 1 lot of Andhrabank CALL of strike price 67.5 between 1.50-2.00.
One could hold the strategy if in profit or loss is below Rs. 5000/-

I am fully aware that there is very low (or zero!) possibility that NIFTY will go near or below 7800 under present circumstances till expiration, but selling 7800 CALLs will credit the account by Rs. 50,000/- and I found this idea lucrative. Also there is about Rs. 25/- premium in this contract and this is not bad too!

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

Risk takers can sell Reliance future with SL 979

Surprisingly NIFTY is consolidating. It is trading near resistance line and showing resilience, which is very noticeable.
ECB also hold rate today, positive for market punters who are searching for cues to take market up. Languishing global markets during the day also surged after ECB announcement and our NIFTY should not do any different tomorrow morning.
But still there is merit in holding bear position till NIFTY crosses 8375 in SPOT.

No new trades for ordinary traders.
Hold bear spread position.
Book profit in LT strategy, of not booked earlier.

For risk takers and if profit gained this month permits then sell Reliance future with SL 979 (in Future)

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

Sell LT 1600 CALL and buy LT 1550 PUT at market price.

NIFTY is in up-move clearly. It is consolidating in narrow range. It could blast if it crosses 8360. Technically it is forming higher high for past 11 days excepting one day and this is very bullish sign. FIIs are buying continuously and DIIs are selling. This is another signature of bulls. Most of the key markets are in green. 

Some negatives:

Future is at discount.

Drought 

FED

Low volumes

So as long as NIFTY is not crossing 8360 let us go with bearish possibility.

Hold NIFTY bear spread strategy.

New Trade

Sell LT 1600 CALL and buy LT 1550 PUT at market price. Book loss if total loss in strategy is Rs. 5000/-

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

There is high likelihood NIFTY might correct very soon

FIIs are buying.
NIFTY has conclusively closed above 8250 on EOD basis.
FIIs are buying for last consecutive 8 sessions in cash segment. Global markets are supporting NIFTY. Even now (19 October 9 PM) SGX NIFTY is in green, DOW is in green. If this remains so, there is no doubt that NIFTY will cross 8300.
This triggers reason for exiting from all bull positions.
We hold bearspread position of NIFTY.

But there is high likelihood NIFTY might correct very soon.
Reasons are:

1. Volumes are not supporting 
2. Locally things are not great.
3. Rate cut is digested by market and BN is not supporting NIFTY.
4. Today, it could be just aftermath of Reliance results.
5. Rate hike by FED will again could come on surface. 

So just be in existing brearspread trade in NIFTY. Those could not enter earlier could do so early trading hours tomorrow. No new trades.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.
          

Buy 8200 NIFTY PUT around 50-60 and sell 8200 NIFTY PUT of 8000 strike price around 18-22

Update:
We closed all our earlier positions during early trade hours on Friday.
Total profit was more than 2% per month or 24% pa.

New trade:
NIFTY has formed negative divergence on daily chart.Or hidden negative divergence in many NIFTY stocks such as TATAMOTORS, ICICIBANK.

NIFTY might correct from here.
Bear- spread strategy in NIFTY:

Buy 8200 NIFTY PUT around 50-60 and sell 8200 NIFTY PUT of 8000 strike price around 18-22. One should do trading with 4 lots ie 100 quantity.

Maximum loss could be near 3600/- and profit potential is more than Rs. 16000/-
Very good risk reward ratio.

Risk takers could think of selling Future contracts of ICICIBANK and TATAMOTORS for day trading. SL should be day high or previous day high for future contracts.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

Only update. No new trades

1. DishTV: booked profit around Rs. 5000/-
2. BN 18000 CALL sell: Profit booking. Rs. 5000/-
3. TCS: Loss 4000/- , holding
4. Southbank: Loss about Rs. 5600/- . Holding
5. NIFTY strategy 8200 PUT and 7600 CALL: Overall descent profit. We booked profit in 8200 PUT and holding 7600 CALL,
6. Buy WIPRO PUT and Sell 8200 CALL: Till today in profit around 5-6 thousand. Holding
7. DLF: Booked 4000/- profit 
8. Bank of Baroda: Sell 170 PUT between 4.50-5.00 and Bank of India : Sell two lots of 145 CALLS between 4.50-5.00.:-- Overall profit. We have not entered into this trade.But one should book profit tomorrow morning.  
9. Buy 140 PUT of BANKINDIA around 4-5/-:- Presently loss around Rs. 1500/-

No new trades.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

buy 140 PUT of BANKINDIA around 4-5/-

NIFTY is still in uptrend, till the time it closes below 8050 for decisive downtrend.
BN was good trade today and one could have booked Rs. 5000/-profit in quick time. Those who missed to do so today, tomorrow morning would be another opportunity.

NIFTY respected 8250 level, but technically still in uptrend. Watch out for 8250-8300 level very carefully.

Update:

DishTV: booked profit around Rs. 5000/-
BN 18000 CALL sell: Profit booking. Rs. 5000/-

TCS: Same status.  Presently around Rs. 2000/- loss. Results are good. Look for opportunity tomorrow, based on results to book profit, otherwise one can hold till expiry. Rupee is weakening and TCS might cross 2750 before expiration.

Southbank:
Loss about Rs. 5600/- or could be more depending upon buying rate. One can exit or preferably hold till October 19 and expect miracle in quarterly result.

NIFTY strategy 8200 PUT and 7600 CALL: Overall profit. We booked profit in 8200 PUT and holding 7600 CALL,

Buy WIPRO PUT and Sell 8200 CALL: Till today in profit around 5-6 thousand. Holding

INFY: One could have booked profit today. We have not taken this trade.

DLF: Profit booked in single trade,

New Strategy
Bank of Baroda: Sell 170 PUT between 4.50-5.00 and
Bank of India : Sell two lots of 145 CALLS between 4.50-5.00.

Total premium collected will be around 20000/-
SL: Rs. 5000/-

And those who want to keep trade simple (or do not want to invest in margin money, like us!) just buy 140 PUT of BANKINDIA around 4-5/-

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Sell 4 lots of Bank NIFTY CALLs strike price 18000 around 200-225. SL Rs. 5000/-

NIFTY respected 8250 level, but technically still in uptrend. Good macro data will push NIFTY again in northward direction tomorrow. Watch out for 8250-8300 level.

Update:

DishTV: booked profit around Rs. 5000/-

TCS: Same status. In fact gone down. Presently around Rs. 2000/- loss. Hold

Southbank:
Loss about Rs. 5600/- or could be more depending upon buying rate. One can exit or preferably hold till October 19 and expect miracle in quarterly result.

NIFTY strategy 8200 PUT and 7600 CALL: Overall profit. We booked profit in 8200 PUT and holding 7600 CALL,

Buy WIPRO PUT and Sell 8200 CALL: Till today in profit around 3-4 thousand. Holding

INFY: One could hyave booked profit today. We have not taken this trade.

DLF: Profit booked in single trade,

New trade:
Sell 4 lots of Bank NIFTY CALLs strike price 18000 around 200-225. SL Rs. 5000/-

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

No new trades to start the week.

NIFTY is going up. Practically there is no particular reason to reach new heights everyday. Weak monsoon, nothing happened in Parliament session but rate cut booster and US FED decision not to hike rate enthused markets last two weeks. FIIs also started buying in past couple of days.  If macro data is good next week NIFTY will move quickly towards 8500. As a trader if NIFTY crosses 8250-8260 on EOD basis, it is better to exit all bear trades. While doing so if loss for the month is more than 25 K then stop trading for the month.

Here is summary of our trades:

DishTV: booked profit around Rs. 5000/-

TCS: It had shown good profit of Rs. 80-100 but just for 5 minutes. We missed to book profit in those five early minutes in market trade during one of the day last week. Now contract is heading towards loss, maximum loss could be Rs. 4500, recommendation hold. Maybe good INFY results will again glitter our eyes.

Southbank:
Loss about Rs. 5600/- or could be more depending upon buying rate. One can exit or preferably hold till October 19 and expect miracle in quarterly result.

NIFTY strategy 8200 PUT and 7600 CALL: Overall marginal loss, but one can book profit in 8200 PUT. It will be trading at around Rs. 70-80, if NIFTY moves 100 points from here.

Buy WIPRO PUT and Sell 8200 CALL: Till today no loss/no profit.

INFY: No loss, no profit. Book profit immediately after results or exit the trade at marginal loss.

DLF: Profit in single trade, Book profit in bull spread strategy.

Since there are 5-6 active trades, no new trade should be entered as per our trading rule.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

INFOSYS

INFY results are on Monday 12 October.
Bull spread could be very nice strategy.
Buy 1140 CALL at 44-45 and sell 1200 PUT around 25.
Maximum loss could be 5000/- and maximum profit potential could be Rs. 10000/- . Very good risk reward ratio and hence one should not miss this opportunity!

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

NIFTY and WIPRO

Sell 2 lots of 8200 NIFTY CALLs, collect around Rs. 7400-7500 as premium
and Buy WIPRO 580 PUT around 15-17.
Please exit the strategy if combined loss is more than Rs. 5000/-


Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss 

Sell 8400 CALLs around 40/-

NIFTY might pause for some time.
Sell 8400 CALLs around 40/-
Risk taker can sell 8000 CALL around 250/-

Hold other strategies recommended earlier.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update

NIFTY is heading towards 8250-8300 based on global cues.


1.) We already booked profit in DISHTV.

2.) NIFTY strategy 8200 PUT and 7600 CALL:

Hold. It is in overall profit.

3.) TCS

Hold. Trading at descent marginal profit.

4) Southbank:

If stock goes below 22.10 in cash then it is better to book the loss. But kindly consider 22.10 on EOD basis or around 3.25 PM tomorrow and then decide. If SL is hit we will exit and then change the trade. Or hold the trade till 18 October, maybe result will surprise in strong positive direction.
4a) One option is to sell 1400 PUT of LT, which could credit about Rs. 4000/- in trading account. Or sell NIFTY 7900 PUTs 2 lots and 8300 CALLs two lots to recover the premium. 

5)Sell NIFTY 7800 CALL:

 If NIFTY goes below 7900 tomorrow then one can enter in to this trade.

6.) DLF:

Hold the strategy.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update and adjustments in trades

NIFTY is in uptrend.
It has resistance around 8034 in cash and 8060 in future. One can sell NIFTY CALLs around that level.

Before we enter in other trades here is the update of our old trades:
1.) We already booked profit in DISHTV.

2.) NIFTY strategy 8200 PUT and 7600 CALL:

Hold. It is in overall profit.

3.) TCS

Hold. Trading at descent marginal profit.

4) Southbank:

If stock goes below 22.10 in cash then it is better to book the loss. But kindly consider 22.10 on EOD basis or around 3.25 PM tomorrow and then decide. If SL is hit we will exit and then change the trade.
4a) One option is to sell 1400 PUT of LT, which could credit about Rs. 4000/- in trading account. 

5)Sell NIFTY 7800 CALL:

 If NIFTY goes below 7870 tomorrow then one can enter in to this trade.

6.) DLF:

Hold the strategy.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update

Market is in uptrend by now.
Strong support around 7860, unless it goes below 7860 do not attempt any short positions.

Suggested trades and update:

1. Sell 8200 PUT (4 lots) and 7600 CALLs (4 lots) of NIFTY of October expiration. Monitor this on EOD basis and exit from loss making trade ( and stay foot in other trade) if and only if combined loss is more than Rs. 5000/- .
2. Buy 2700 strike price TCS CALL around 38/- Loss could never be more than 5000/- so stay in the trade either till expiry or till quarterly results.
3. Southbank: Buy Southbank 25 CALL around 0.90/- SL 0.40. This bank is showing some urgency, trading above key averages with good volumes in recent past and who knows could able to make mega money for us.
4. Sell 7800 NIFTY CALL (4 lots) at market price, if NIFTY opens below 7870. SL 325
5. Buy DLF 145 CALL between 4.60-5.00 and sell 150 DLF CALL around 3/-. If you can manage the trade with strict SL then buy only 145 CALL.

Update:

1.) NIFTY strategy 8200 PUT and 7600 CALL:

Hold. It is in overall profit.

2.) TCS

Hold. Trading at very marginal profit.

3.) Southbank:

This pains. When NIFTY goes up over 100 points and our stock does not follow NIFTY. it hurts. But hold on. Stock is trading near support level.

If stock goes below 22.10 in cash then it is better to book the loss. But kindly consider 22.10 on EOD basis or around 3.25 PM tomorrow and then decide.

4.)Sell NIFTY 7800 CALL:

Trade could not be executed because market was above 7870 entire day. If NIFTY goes below 7860 tomorrow then one can enter in to this trade.

5.) DLF:

Marginal profit. For single trade there was an opportunity to book profit even today. But one can hold the strategy.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update and new trades

Our trades:

1. Sell 8200 PUT (4 lots) and 7600 CALLs (4 lots) of NIFTY of October expiration. Monitor this on EOD basis and exit from loss making trade ( and stay foot in other trade) if and only if combined loss is more than Rs. 5000/- .
2. Sell DishTV 130 CALL around 1.80 of October expiration. If loss is more than Rs. 5000/- then just exit from trade.
3. Buy 2700 strike price TCS CALL around 38/- Loss could never be more than 5000/- so stay in the trade either till expiry or till quarterly results.
4. Buy 880 PUT of Sunpharma around 22 and Sell 840 PUT of Sunpharma around 10, loss could be maximum 3000/- and profit potential Rs. 7000/- so carry this trade till expiration. 
5. Southbank: Buy Southbank 25 CALL around 0.90/- SL 0.40. This bank is showing some urgency, trading above key averages with good volumes in recent past and who knows could able to make mega money for us.

Update

NIFTY:
NIFTY 7600 CALL was purchased around 370 and NIFTY 8200 PUT was sold around same price. Let us say 370/-
Trade is in profit and we will continue this trade.

DISHTV
We booked profit EOD today. Entry price 1.80 and profit booking around 0.80.
Trade closed.

TCS
TCS entry around 38-39 and currently trading at marginal profit. We will continue the trade.

SUNPHARMA
Not entered in to the trade.

Southbank:
It is in loss. Total loss today was Rs. 1000-1300/-. We are holding on to the trade.

New trades:
Sell NIFTY 7800 CALL (4 lots) at market price, if NIFTY opens below 7870. SL 325.
Buy DLF 145 CALL between 4.60-5.00 and sell 150 DLF CALL around 3/-


In short,
New trade set is as follows:

1. Sell 8200 PUT (4 lots) and 7600 CALLs (4 lots) of NIFTY of October expiration. Monitor this on EOD basis and exit from loss making trade ( and stay foot in other trade) if and only if combined loss is more than Rs. 5000/- .
2. Buy 2700 strike price TCS CALL around 38/- Loss could never be more than 5000/- so stay in the trade either till expiry or till quarterly results.
3. Southbank: Buy Southbank 25 CALL around 0.90/- SL 0.40. This bank is showing some urgency, trading above key averages with good volumes in recent past and who knows could able to make mega money for us.
4. Sell 7800 NIFTY CALL (4 lots) at market price, if NIFTY opens below 7870. SL 325
5. Buy DLF 145 CALL between 4.60-5.00 and sell 150 DLF CALL around 3/-. If you can manage the trade with strict SL then buy only 145 CALL.

So again we have total 5 trades. No trade should make loss more than Rs. 5000/-.
Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update

Our trades:

1. Sell 8200 PUT (4 lots) and 7600 CALLs (4 lots) of NIFTY of October expiration. Monitor this on EOD basis and exit from loss making trade ( and stay foot in other trade) if and only if combined loss is more than Rs. 5000/- .
2. Sell DishTV 130 CALL around 1.80 of October expiration. If loss is more than Rs. 5000/- then just exit from trade.
3. Buy 2700 strike price TCS CALL around 38/- Loss could never be more than 5000/- so stay in the trade either till expiry or till quarterly results.
4. Buy 880 PUT of Sunpharma around 22 and Sell 840 PUT of Sunpharma around 10, loss could be maximum 3000/- and profit potential Rs. 7000/- so carry this trade till expiration. 
5. Southbank: Buy Southbank 25 CALL around 0.90/- SL 0.40. This bank is showing some urgency, trading above key averages with good volumes in recent past and who knows could able to make mega money for us.

Update

NIFTY:
NIFTY 7600 CALL was purchased around 370 and NIFTY 8200 PUT was sold around same price. Let us say 370/-
Since market went down, premium of PUT sell contracts gone up by about Rs. 40 whereas CALL premium has gone down by Rs.40. So there is no net effect at EOD today.
We will continue this trade.

DISHTV
Sold at Rs. 1.80 and currently trading at around 1.35. Today total profit was Rs. 1800/-
We are continuing with the trade.

TCS
TCS entry around 38-39 and currently trading at marginal profit.

SUNPHARMA
Continue with the trading strategy. It is in profit. But there is possibility, since it opened with very huge price difference one could not have even able to enter in to the trade. We could not take any position here. We will replace the trade in next couple of days.

Southbank:
It is in loss. Total loss today was Rs. 1200-1300/-. We are holding on to the trade.

Net result: Holding all positions with very marginal profit today.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Trades for next week.

From OI data it is clear that NIFTY could stay in range, The range is bit broad ie 7500-8300.
Maybe 25 bps rate cut is already factored in, if it is more NIFTY will go near 8300, if not 7500 is on cards.

But one can get some good trades with proper money management.
Suppose one is handling trading account worth 5 lacs INR.
Then he/she should risk only one percent ie around INR 5000/- per trade and should not trade in more than 5 trades at one time.
If everything goes wrong (this is highly unlikely scenario) , total loss could be Rs. 25000/- in the month, and then in which case one should not trade for rest of the month! Discipline!!

So first one should get money from the market. Assuming NIFTY will be range bound, one can sell 8200 PUTs and 7600 CALLs. This will help in credit balance about Rs. 70000/-.

Few more good trades could be:
Sell DishTV 130 CALL around 1.80/-
Buy 2700 TCS CALL around 38/-
Buy 880 PUT of Sunpharma around 22
Sell 840 PUT of Sunpharma around 10

In short, now you have total five strategies/trade combinations:

1. Sell 8200 PUT (4 lots) and 7600 CALLs (4 lots) of NIFTY of October expiration. Monitor this on EOD basis and exit from loss making trade ( and stay foot in other trade) if and only if combined loss is more than Rs. 5000/- .
2. Sell DishTV 130 CALL around 1.80 of October expiration. If loss is more than Rs. 5000/- then just exit from trade.
3. Buy 2700 strike price TCS CALL around 38/- Loss could never be more than 5000/- so stay in the trade either till expiry or till quarterly results.
4. Buy 880 PUT of Sunpharma around 22 and Sell 840 PUT of Sunpharma around 10, loss could be maximum 3000/- and profit potential Rs. 7000/- so carry this trade till expiration. 
5. Southbank: Buy Southbank 25 CALL around 0.90/- SL 0.40. This bank is showing some urgency, trading above key averages with good volumes in recent past and who knows could able to make mega money for us.

I will try and follow all trades everyday, but one must not hesitate to book profit as appropriate.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Trades for Friday, tomorrow

NIFTY has closed above 7940 and this would keep it floating at least for some time above 7940.
New trades should be taken on Monday.

But for intraday tomorrow following trades look good. One can exit at EOD and calculate total profit.

Sell Axis Bank 480 PUT between 8-9\
Sell DLF 100 PUT between 3-4
Sell HDFC 1160 PUT  between 30-34
Buy JP ASSOCIAT 12.50 CALL around 0.25
Buy RELINFRA 360 CALL between 11-12
Buy TATAMOTORS 320 PUT between 9-10

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Trades for the expiry week

NIFTY is heading towards 7600.
Buy PUTs is the matra for success.

NIFTY

This is an OI table for the next month.
Buy 7800 PUTs around 30-35 of September expiration.
Buying 200 quantity one would invest only Rs. 7000/-

Buy next month's TATAMOTORS PUT of 320 strike price at around 9-10/-

IT stocks should not fall too much even if market falls.

Sell 1000 quantity (2 lots) of TECHM 560 strike price at around 9-10 of August expiration. Or sell one lot of TECHM 570 strike price at around 14-15 of August expiration.

In short trades for expiry week could be as follows

1. Buy 7800 PUTs around 30-35 of September expiration.
2. Buy 320 PUT of  TATAMOTORS PUT around 9-10/- of September expiration.
3. Sell 1000 quantity (2 lots) of TECHM 560 strike price at around 9-10 of August expiration. OR for more risk takers just sell one lot of TECHM 570 strike price at around 14-15 of August expiration.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Trades for next few days

NIFTY is range bound.

TCS has given good profit booking opportunity last week and one should have grabbed it.

For next few days banking stocks look promising based on rumors of rate cut, perceived lowering of inflation data and NAMO's speech about progressing India. A speech from Red Fort today and markets will cheer that for sure on Monday.

Look at the OI table for NIFTY for this month and next month.

This month's OI table

From this table it is clear that today smart traders are convinced that NIFTY will have support around 8200 and resistance around 8700 for August expiration.

For next month, traders are thinking it could go up to 9000 again. Lot of hopes on GST. Also historically September is good month for the market.

Lot of discussions about low monsoon and FED rate hike but investors at least today are not in mood to listen anything.
NIFTY had reversed from ichimoku cloud on day chart.

NIFTY is forming strong base in 8300-8400 levels and in last one month three times NIFTY bounced back from that zone.

In banking SBI is showing momentum.

SBI has very strong support around 250

With this one can enter in to following trades.

1. Sell 8700 strike NIFTY CALLs 100 quantity (4 lots) for September expiration around 115-125
2. Sell 8200 strike NIFTY PUTs 100 quantity (4 lots) for September expiration around 60-70
3. Buy SBI 280 CALL one lot of August expiration  around 3.5-4.00 
4. Sell SBI 290 CALL one lot of August expiration  around 1.5-2.00

JPASSOCIAT is available at very cheap price. One can buy sizable quantity in cash segment. This is flagship company of big 20000 Cr group, lot of assets, much better than dot com and start up companies, If management could turn around the business in next couple of years then it will give very good returns. Otherwise downside from here is very limited.


Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Strategy for next couple of weeks

NIFTY is going up.
It might continue it upward momentum for sometime. Nevertheless, since no major events are around unless there is something extraordinary happens, NIFTY is going to take pause for sometime. It will be range-bound.
A perfect stage for CALL sell strategy in NIFTY
At the same time IT stocks could prosper. Rupee is depreciating and this could benefit IT stocks. No brainer!
Also a stock like JPASSOCIATE, is bottomed out. One might see some buying there. Results will be announced on August 8. All analysts are expecting very poor results and it is reflecting in stock price.
Nevertheless, after a long time stock is trading above 200 D moving average. If it continues to stay above this key average, then it could reach to 14-15 before end of the month.

So strategy for the month or for at least next couple of weeks could be as follows.
Sell 8600 CALLs 100 quantity around Rs. 105-125
Buy 2500 TCS CALL around Rs. 70-80
BUY JPASSOCIATE 12.5 strike price CALL around Rs 0.50/-

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

New derivative strategies for next few days.

FIIs are still not buying heavily. But rally continued.
It is very stock specific, but still trend is up. Greece worries, poor prediction of Monsoon in July might not augur well with the investors.

One can take below trades:
Sell YESBANK 840 CALL between 45-55 one lot.
Buy NIFTY 8200 PUT 100 quantity between 50-60
Buy Tech Mahindra 500 CALL between 10-14


Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Strategy up to expiration of June 2015

I am writing blog after long time and I will be very short here.
FIIs are still not buyers in this trending market barring one day in the week and hence it does not give confidence of continuation of upward momentum.
But general trend is up. Good  beginning of monsoon could strengthen the trend further.

Sell YESBANK 820 PUT around 12 for July expiration around 12-13
Sell INFY 1000 CALL around 45 and sell 1000 PUT around 34-36 both July expiration.
Buy DLF 125 CALL of July expiration around 3.50-4.00.
Buy DLF 120 CALL of June expiration around 0.70-0.80

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Three strategies for near future.

NIFTY could be just 100 points away from probable  reversal point.
If it goes near 8550 and then 8500 June expiration PUT will be trading around 120/-
IT and pharma could do well because USD might cross 65 in coming weeks.
With this background strategy could be as follows:

Strategy 1:
Sell INFY 2000 PUT around 45 of June expiration.
Buy HCLTECH 1000 CALL between 4-5 of May expiry.

Strategy 2:
Buy 4 lots NIFTY 8500 PUT of June expiration only if it goes around 120-125.

In view of rate cut rumor by RBI banks stocks could show some momentum. So below is the strategy.
Strategy 3: Butterfly strategy of SBI
Sell 2 lots of SBI 300 CALLs around 5-6 of June expiration.
Buy 280 CALL of SBI (one lot) around 12-12.50 June expiration.
Buy 310 CALL of SBI (one lot) around 3.5 June expiration.

Maximum profit around 19000 and maximum loss could be 5800/-.


Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Trading strategy for the week starting from May 18

NIFTY has to cross various barriers before next up move. FIIs are not still very active but DIIs are buying like anything. Perhaps FIIs will return in to buying mode and NIFTY would go near 8700 very soon.

NIFTY resistances are
8320: 38.2% retracement from last fall
8420: 50% retracement
8521: 61.8% retracement.

Assuming NIFTY will continue it up move for sometime, one could have below strategy.
NIFTY:
As per OI strong support at 8000 and strong resistance at 8500

Sell 4 lots of 8000 PUT between 40-50 and Sell 4 lots of 8500 CALLs around 30-35
Your account should be credited by Rs. 7000-8000.

SBIN
It has very strong support near 270.

Sell 270 SBI PUT around 4-5
This should add credit balance more than 5000/-

DISHTV
It seems forming new base around 75

Sell DISHTV 75 PUT around 0.8-1.0, this will add around Rs. 3000/-

Now total credit balance is around 18000-19000/-

Media stocks are not doing well. Generally Media stocks perform when elections or any such event is around.
Since there is noting of that sort stocks like Zee could see further downside.

ZEEL

Buy 300 PUT of ZEEL around 8/-

NTPC
It is falling with volumes. Something must be wrong there.

Buy 135 PUT of NTPC around Rs.2.50/-

AXISBANK:

Buy Axisbank 580 CALL around 8-9/-

In short:
Trades should be as follows:

1. Sell 4 lots of 8000 PUTs between 40-50
2. Sell 4 lots of 8500 CALLs around 30-35
3. Sell 270 SBI PUT around 4-5
4. Buy 300 PUT of ZEEL around 8/-
5. Buy 135 PUT of NTPC around Rs.2.50/-
6. Buy  570 CALL of Axisbank around 12-13/-

Total investment in margin money could be around 2.5 lacs, but there will be credit balance in trading account.
Exit entire strategy if total profit is more than 2% on your investment, ie more than 6 to 7 thousand in next week.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

YESBANK

I can not predict what will happen to TCS in view of this set of numbers. But overall things look good.
I will hold TCS strategy for few more days.
Lot of addition 2500 PUT, which is trading around 45, so stock should not go below 2455 in near term.

YESBANK

YESBANK had given kind of hammer pattern, though not perfect hammer, it could be positive indication for the stock.

Buy YESBANK 880 CALL between 18 and 18.50. Buy only if it reaches in this range.
Target 24, SL 15

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

AUROPHARMA

AUROPHARMA

Stock is trading at all time high and might see some profit booking in next couple of weeks.

Bear spread strategy:
Buy 1300 PUT around 20-22 and sell 1250 PUT around 10-11.
Maximum loss could be around 2500-3000 and profit potential about 10000/-

Risk reward ratio is very good.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

BOI and TCS: Next week trades

It is advisable to stay positive in banking and IT.
Though my stomach feeling is BANKNIFTY might not go very far, charts are suggesting otherwise. As a short term trader one should follow the charts rather than inner voice!

Bank of India
Stock had bottomed out.
Now it could give fresh run at least till 235-245.

Bull spread strategy in BOI
Buy 220 CALL around 7 and Sell 235 CALL around 2.5.
Maximum loss could be around 4500 but maximum profit could be around 10500/- Risk reward ratio is very good here to enter in to the trade.

TCS
TCS quarterly results will be announced on April 16.

          Strategy for the result:
Consensus on street is TCS might not do well in this quarterly results and there could be some dip in stock post results. But overall stock is near buy zone, from option table 2500 seems to be very strong support, Rupee is weakening against dollar and hence considering all these aspects even slightly better than expected results will take the stock price towards 2900.

Sell TCS 2650 PUT around 70-75
Buy TCS 2500 PUT around 25-30
Buy TCS 2700 CALL around 57-60

Though maximum loss could be about 10000/-, this strategy would have unlimited profit potential.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

New strategies: ICICIBANK and IFCI

Most of the trades so far were good and strategies generated descent profit.

ICICIBANK
ICICIBANK is in down trend, but now near bottom. Stock could see 345 level again very soon.
Sell ICICIBANK 320 PUT around 11
But if stock goes in other direction keep safety belt ready. Buy 300 PUT around 3.40-3.80.
Maximum profit potential around 9000/- and loss could be around 15000-16000.

IFCI:
It gave strong green candle with good volume.
Bull spread strategy.
Buy 35 CALL of IFCI around 1.20 and Sell 37.50 CALL of IFCI around 0.40
Maximum profit could be about 14000/- and loss could be around 6000/-

In short trends could be as follows:

1. Sell ICICIBANK 320 PUT around 11.
2. Buy ICICIBANK 300 PUT around 3.40-3.80
3. Buy 35 CALL of IFCI around 1.20
4. Sell 37.50 CALL of IFCI around 0.40

After entering in to all the trades best part is there should be about Rs. 2800-3000 credit balance in your account. We should hope, trade goes in desired direction to increase credit balance every day!!
Please note maximum profit in these trades could be 23000-24000 and maximum loss could be around 19000/-

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

Trades for the week ahead

NIFTY has formed a broad range.
There could be very stock specific trades in near future.

LT
It formed base around 1700. Look at the option table.

From chart also it is clear that LT has bounced back from short term support around 1620.

It is reasonably safe to sell PUTs of LT of 1650 contracts around Rs. 14/-
Sell 2 lots of LT 1650 PUTs, this will help in credit balance in your account and around 7000/-

Infosys:
Very good stock for long term investor, but in spite of weakening in Rupee stock was not doing well in comparison with its peers in recent past.

It has entered in to Ichimoku cloud in day chart.
Look at the OI table.

Strong resistance is around 2300 which has maximum OI
So 2350 CALL appears to be safe.
Sell 2350 INFY CALL (one lot) around 25-26.
This will help credit balance in your account around 6500/-

So total credit will be around 15000/- in your trading account.

DishTV
It has given clear breakout with volume and might move further based on the news of set up box portability.

Buy 87.5 CALL around 1.6-1.9.

In short, trades for next week could be as follows:

1. Sell 2 lots of LT 1650 PUTs
2. Sell 1 lot of Infosys 2350 CALL 
3. Buy Dish TV 87.5 CALL

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

Trade of today: Hexaware

It is clear  breakout and with high volume.
Something must be happening in the counter.

Sell 300 PUT between 8-9.
But one should exit the trade if stock goes below 305 in cash.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss. 

Reliance and SAIL

Hold YESBANK strategy. One can book profit in CALL sell contract of YESBANK and hold other positions.

Reliance:
Reliance broke long term support line with high volume and it could slide down further.

Market must support for Reliance to cross 900. If NIFTY goes beyond 8790 in near future, Reliance could take off, otherwise it will fall further or will consolidate in present range.
Sell Reliance 900 CALL of April expiration around Rs. 6/- one can do in 2 lots.

SAIL
SAIL has given clear break out in falling markets.
It could give some more upside.

Even in bear market 65 acted as rock solid support.
Sell 65 PUT of SAIL of April expiration around 1.30-1.40

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Sell JSW STEEL 920 CALL around 6-7 and Sell LUPIN 2000 PUT around 12

Tomorrow is expiry day.
No lottery trade this month.
Markets are behaving pattern. If in up trend, NIFTY should revert soon. But it is not happening. FIIs are mainly buyers but NIFTY is not responding to their buying! This is unusual.

Sell JSW STEEL 920 CALL around 6-7 and Sell LUPIN 2000 PUT around 12.
Please enter in trades in limit value as these are not liquid options.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Trades for next few days

NIFTY is in downward trend.
It must cross 8780-8790 conclusively on EOD basis for further up-move.
Bank NIFTY is struggling more than NIFTY.

SBI is in down trend.
Trading around 275/-, it will be difficult for SBI to cross 320 in near future.

Sell two lots of 320 CALL contracts around 2/- of April expiration.
This will add credit balance of about Rs. 2500/- in your account.

Yes Bank:
Though it is corrected by Rs. 120, stock is recovering in past couple of days and is consolidating.

Yes Bank has strong support around 760/-
Sell Yes bank 760 PUT of April expiration around 8/-
Sell Yes Bank 920 CALL of April expiration around 9/-
Buy Yes Bank 860 CALL of April expiration around 25/-

This will not take more than Rs. 1500/- from your pocket.
This looks to be reasonably safe strategy. One should exit from the strategy if YESBANK goes below 760 in cash, with very marginal loss.

In short trades should be as below:
Sell two lots of 320 CALL of SBIN around 2/- of April expiration.
Sell Yes bank 760 PUT of April expiration around 8/-
Sell Yes Bank 920 CALL of April expiration around 9/-
Buy  Yes Bank 860 CALL of April expiration around 25/-

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

Sell in May and go away!!

NIFTY could be in range bound zone in spite of FOMC meeting on March 18.

Strategy for next few days:
Sell 8800 CALL of March expiration and sell 8800 PUT of March expiration. Do sell 2 lots each.
About Rs. 10000/- will be credited to your trading account.

Sell in May and go away!!

FOMC meeting in May could lead to rate hike and could bring some panic among traders.
Keep buying 8500 and 8600 PUTs of May expiration on every rise in NIFTY spot. Make basket of total 6-8 lots of PUTs, investing about 12000-15000/-

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss              

Trades for next week

NIFTY is now clearly entering in to consolidation mode before next directional movement.
From OI table, 8750-9120 could be the range for short term and chart suggests, if NIFTY slips below 8780-8750 range, then further downside is possible.

One should monitor OI table of NIFTY daily and adjust positions based on direction provided by smart money movers for better accuracy.

Lot of PUT writing at 8900 contract, which is trading near 80/-, it means even if there is gap down opening, crossing 8820 could be difficult for NIFTY immediately on Monday. For day trader 8820 (SPOT) could be a buying opportunity with 25-30 points stop loss.


General trend is still positive.

ICICIBANK

Stock is in down trend. But lot of PUT addition around 330, suggests con can safely write 325 PUT around 3.50-4.50/-

Chart suggests strong support near 327.

TATAMOTORS:

Strong support near 560-566. TATA group stocks are generally doing well.

Lot of PUT writing in 550 contract and hence one can safely write 540 PUT around 4-5.

AXISBANK

Traders seems to be on both sides of trades once it comes to trading in AXISBANK stock.
Look at OI table. Though there are more reds than green, there is still merit to be with bulls.

Stock should cross 650 cross before expiration.

Buy 650 CALL of axis bank around 8-9.

CAIRN

Stock is in down trend and hence worth trying PUT buying here. If double top pattern works, stock should reach 220 level before weekend.

Buy 235 PUT around 4-5/-

In short trends for next week as follows:

1. Sell two lots of ICICIBANK 325 PUT contracts around 3.50-4.50.
2. Sell two lots of TATAMOTORS 540 PUT contracts around 4-5
3. Buy Axis Bank 650 CALL
4. Buy CAIRN 335 PUT

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

Trades till expiration this month.

Budget week!
Lot of expectations about Budget are built in already in NIFTY price. Traders are cautious. FIIs are buyers. NIFTY rallied and covered 350-400 points and now consolidating during last three trading sessions. For NIFTY, 8800 should act as a good psychological support.
Averages are catching up. RSI (14 D) is near 40-45 and approaching oversold region. Hope rally could be at his best in its last stride and post budget NIFTY could cross 9300 at least once. And looking at chart and OI table, immediate range till expiration could be 8800 (+50)  to 9000 (+50)

Based on this assumptions:
Sell 4 lots of NIFTY 9000 PUT of February expiration in the range of 150-200.

Reliance:
Due to adverse news about steeling information, Reliance could struggle for some more time. It has immediate support of 830.

Buy 860 PUT between 6-7.

ICICIBANK
Stock is not doing well. In general banking and especially private banks did not participate in brief rally last week. Maybe they will do so this week.
ICICIBANK has strong support around 320 and resistance around 360. It should try to touch both levels in next four trading sessions.

Maximum OI in 330 PUT and which is being traded at 5.50, this could mean stock many not go too much below 324-325. That would be the time to enter in to 330 CALL buy contract.
As per rough calculation 330 CALL should be available around 3.25-4.00, if stocks goes near 325 in cash segment on Monday

Buy 330 ICICI BANK CALL of February expiration around 3.25-4.00.

In short, trades should be as follows:
1) Sell four lots of 9000 NIFTY PUT around 150-200
2) Buy Reliance 860 PUT around 6-7
3) Buy ICICIBANK 330 CALL between 3.25-4.50.

Hold these trades till expiration of this month.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

ICICIBANK: Buy 340 CALL around Rs. 10/-

Unusual high quantity of PUTs were added in 340 contracts since morning.

See chart, it is being traded around bottom of the channel and there could be bounce back

One can buy 340 CALL around 10/-

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Sell NIFTY 8600 PUT around 100-120

Selling 8500 PUT around 130-140 proved to be a good strategy. One can exit from it, if not booked profit earlier. NIFTY obliged EW theory.

Today there is lot of addition at 8600 PUTs and 8800 CALLs. This range seems to be sealed for the time-being, unless there is any news which could take NIFTY on either side.

 Sell NIFTY 8600 PUT around 100-120 and stay with the majority of smart trader for the day.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

Sell NIFTY 8500 PUT 4 lots around 140-150 and buy PUT of JP and CALL of AXISBANK

Update:
Book profit in RPOWER 75 CALL sell contract
Book profit in TATAMOTORS 630 CALL contract.
Book profit in INFY 2100 PUT sell contract
and hold other contracts for next week.

This is an eventful month so all trades should be done very carefully. All earlier stocks moved exactly in opposite directions than anticipated. But still long way to go, there could be possibility of recovery.

Delhi pre-election results indicating AAP could come in power with majority. As an investor especially FIIs, will not appreciate this and further downside could be expected.

In perception of FIIs,

1. this could mean there is still a major section in Indian voters who believes in freebies, socialistic Congress mindset and in future Congress-AAP alliance could become challenge to BJP's crony capitalism Governance. 
2. wherever possible (common man) voters are choosing substitutes to BJP. This is what shown in by-poll elections in North India. Perhaps there were no non-congress options in Maharashtra and J & K, but there also it was not safe-sailing for BJP. 
3. this is anti-BJP, anti-progress agenda of majority of candle procession Indians who are not driven by self styled opinion leaders on social networking sites.     

These all could be perceptions as mentioned, but perception is reality in many cases.

I am not an expert in politics but a mere option trader.
I will be keen to know where support exists.

NIFTY is very close to support levels.
RSI is near 30. As per EW theory, NIFTY, should not go down below 8445, to continue up-move.

If NIFTY goes near 8440, then 8500 PUT would be traded around 140-150. As per OI there is support around 8500 and since 8500 PUT is traded around 60 and hence support near 8440 (ie 8500-60) seems to be very strong.

AXISBANK:

Formed hammer pattern. Will cross 580 soon.

OI suggests that 530 seems to be very strong support.

Strategy:
Sell NIFTY 8500 PUT 4 lots around 140-150.
Buy JPASSIAT 22.5 PUT
Buy AXISBANK 580 CALL.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

Buy CAIRN 230 PUT between 5-6

NIFTY experienced profit booking after long time.
Maximum open interest in NIFTY is at 9000 CALL, and it seems NIFTY might  take some time to close above 9000 on EOD basis. NIFTY has strong support near 8500 looking at OI in 8500 PUTs.

From NIFTY EOD chart, it is clear that NIFTY reversed from strong resistance line and this was supported by global cues.

Continue with RPOWER, TATAMOTORS and INFY strategies.

Since we have two positions viz TATAMOTORS and RPOWER assuming NIFTY will continue up-move and except INFY we do not have and bear position, one can think of buying PUTS in CAIRN INDIA.

Buy CAIRN 230 PUT between 5-6.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take responsibility of your profit/loss

DLF

Lottery trade for today

Buy DLF 165 CALL of January expiration around Rs. 1-1.20.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Strategies for next 7/8 trading sessions

After closing this month in profit, be very careful in next month. It is budget month, expect very high volatility. Practically budget will be after February expiry but traders will align their positions in anticipation of budgetary provisions.

FOMC meetings, Delhi election results will add to the volatility. No position should be naked this month.

Keep booking small profits.
I will try to update blog very regularly.

Our three trades (strategies) for next few trading sessions are as follows.
1)   RPOWER Strategy which was blogged yesterday.
2)   TATAMOTORS:

Stock is in uptrend.

Buy 600 CALL
Sell 630 CALL and Sell 570 PUT

At least in the beginning no premium should be paid from the pocket. If stock crosses 609-610 in cash, it will reach 630 in short time.


3) INFY:
Due to FIIs inflow and other obvious reasons Rupee will be appreciated till 60/-. IT stocks might not do well.
Buy 2100 PUT of INFY and sell 2000 PUT of INFY.
Maximum loss could be  around 5000/- and maximum profit potential 19000/-


Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.
          

RPOWER strategy

Update:
Booked profit in most of the positions and holding TATASTEEL 420 CALL and hoping it to do something extraordinary!
From OI 420 seems to be very strong resistance.

Also trend-line resistance around 425. Perhaps stock will not go beyond 420 in this series and I have to forgo my premium.


Market is in uptrend.
It will stay so perhaps till Delhi poll results. If BJP does well on February 10, NIFTY will find reason for further up-move.

As option trader we should able to find low risk strategies.

One of the good strategy could be the trades in RPOWER.
Stock is trading near demand zone.
OI table and buying with high volume on Friday, shows increased interest of traders. Stock is also trading above key averages.

One can select one of the option strategies below:
1) Buy 70 CALL of RPOWER around 1.7-1.8 of February expiration. Maximum loss around 7000/- but unlimited profit potential.
Or
2) Buy 70 CALL of RPOWER around 1.7-1.8 of February expiration and sell 75 CALL of RPOWER around 0.90-1.00 of February expiration. Here maximum loss could be around 4000/- and maximum profit potential around 17000/-

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.