NIFTY and AXISBANK

NIFTY has reached almost overbought region. Another 50-60 points up-move could be possible in this rally.
Sell 6450 NIFTY CALLs of March expiration between 17-20
Sell 6400 NIFTY CALLs of March expiration between 30-35, if you have already sold some lots then don't average now.

Axisbank:
Sell 1350 CALL of March expiration between 10-12. risk averse should sell 1400 CALL between 5-6.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

NIFTY

Finally, we could gain small profit in ICICIBANK and TCS. It was not a good experience. Let us not enter in to such strategies for some time!
Let us stick to objective of this blog to find out safe strategies.

NIFTY is going up, but with low volumes. Generally low volume rallies don't sustain for long time.

Sell NIFTY CALLs of March expiry.
Sell 6400 CALL between 23-28 of March expiry,
Don't invest entire capital, but worth investing 25% now and rest can be used later for averaging if NIFTY goes up near 6300 levels.
For more safe traders sell 6450 CALLs of March expiration between 15-20.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

Update and NIFTY

Exit ICICI bank and TCS strategies.
One may start partial withdrawal with very limited risk.In ICICIBANK, exit 4 lots of 1020 CALLs, hold one lot. Hold 960 PUT and exit at 6-8 level.Exit future.

In TCS exit 4 lots of 2200 CALLs and hold one lot. Book profit in 2050 PUT.

Book profit in 2150 CALL.
I must admit both ICICI and TCS were not successful and there could be marginal loss. Better to exit tomorrow and do something else than hoping against hope for these two trades to work in our favor before expiry.

NIFTY
Sell 5900 PUTs of February expiry in the range of 22-25.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update

NIFTY is unable to cross gap 6098-6110. It seems it is difficult even today. Even after good set of inflation numbers, market is not reacting, FIIs are not participating. DIIs are buying but just not enough. NIFTY is in narrow trading range for past 5 trading sessions.
According to option table undercurrent is clearly indicating downtrend and best guess could be about 100 points dip in NIFTY.
Nothing much worked so far in this month as there was no clear trend.
Option trader needs one good day in a month and maybe we will get one this week!!

Just try and hold all positions for today and book even small profit, if you get an opportunity.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

TCS

NIFTY is not responding to positive global cues. Today also there are many positives but SGX NIFTY is not reacting to an extent it should.

TCS:
Buy 2150 CALL between 30-32 and book profit around 40-45.
Most of the IT stocks shown momentum yesterday. Maybe today it could be turn of TCS.

Old strategies of TCS and ICICIBANK
Look for good exit points. At least try and exit ICICIBANK and one can hold modified TCS strategy.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update

Market is not showing any sign of recovery. Sentiments are negative. FIIs are selling.

TCS:
Let us adjust the strategy. It broke the trend line, closed near low of the day. So some more downside is possible.
Book profit in Future sell and buy 2000 TCS PUT.
TCS should show reversal very soon, unless there is some real bad news which we are not aware of and influential hands know it.
It is in oversold region, 14 day RSI is near 20, but still lot of OI addition on 2200 CALL will make it difficult for TCS to cross 2200 in next couple of trading sessions. However, TCS could retrace to 2250 in short time on back of weak Rupee.
In short, book profit in Future sell contract, Buy 2000 PUT, hold 2200 CALLs and hold 2050 PUT.

ICICIBANK
Hold strategy, with hope of northward movement!!
If ICICIBANK goes below 930 then better to exit.


Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

TCS and update on ICICIBANK

NIFTY is still in range and shows confusion among traders. There is no new trigger for movement in either direction. Better than expected GDP and spurt in EU, US markets might see gap up opening on Monday.

ICICI Bank strategy update:

Bank NIFTY is not participating from up-move from 5930 NIFTY level, if it does after IIP and inflation numbers by mid next week we might get chance to exit ICICI strategy in profit. Break-even point could be near 990/995 with present IV and see an opportunity to exit if market opens gap up and ICICI bank participates in the rally. ICICI bank showed signs of recovery on the day we entered in to the strategy but since then it is stuck in to the range.
Exit the strategy if it goes below 930 in cash or even one can hold till month end if he/she is willing to risk about Rs. 3000 and hope after IIP and inflation numbers ICICI bank crosses 1030 and there could be an outside chance of booking handsome profit!

One can square off 1050/1040 CALLs and buy 1020 CALLs of equal quantity to maximize profit.


TCS

TCS is showing weakness after results, even-though results were good. But this is usual profit booking. It has fallen due to lack of open interest and fall is about 8% from the top.
It has reached support, if it bounces back from the support, it could easily cross 2300 in very near term. Anyway it is good stock for long term investment (like ICICI bank) at current levels and investors would find this price attractive. Weak Rupee will also support the upward movement.

Those who are willing to risk Rs. 5000/- below is the best strategy.

Sell TCS Future at current level around 2150, one lot ie 125 quantity.
Buy  TCS 2200 CALL around current level ie say 32-34 level but in higher quantity ie 5 lots, 625 quantity.
Sell TCS 2050 PUT around 17-18, one lot ie 125 quantity.

Maximum loss could be Rs. 5000-5500, excluding brokerage. Total investment including margin money will be approximately 70000-80000/-
Break-even point could be around 2180 in next few trading sessions depending upon IV, and 2210 at the time of expiry.
If TCS takes support and goes near 2300 then profit potential is about 40000 to 50000/- per strategy.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

 

No new trades today

FII started buying, even after huge selling at SGX NIFTY, market closed near day's high, formed perfect V and since global markets are positive one can expect gap up opening.
Exit 5900 PUTs and 5950 PUT sell contracts.
We might get chance to exit ICICI bank strategy today.
NIFTY could touch resistance zone 6140-6160 within 2/3 trading sessions.

Just manage existing trades and no new trade today.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update

As every NIFTY trader knows by now NIFTY levels to watch for are 5940-5970 on downside and 6140-6170 on upper side.
One might see NIFTY in this range for few trading sessions.

Update ICICIBANK strategy:
Unfortunately, it is not paying dividend so far. If one sees level near 1000 for ICICI today/tomorrow then be in the trade or prepare to exit on Monday/Tuesday at small loss.
Also lot of short build up in yesterday's trading session  indicates stock will find difficult to move upward in the near future. So, be prepared to book loss, if ICICI goes below 940 in cash.

No new trades, manage NIFTY PUT sell positions and keep booking profits at regular intervals.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update

No new trades.
Hold PUT sell positions in various NIFTY contracts.
Book profit in IDBI and IDFC contracts.
Book profit in ICICI strategy if ICICI crosses 1000/1010 within a day or two.
FIIs are still net sellers.
So this possible bounce could be just new selling opportunity.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

ICICI Bank

All global markets are down and one more big gap down opening is almost certain.
Average NIFTY PUTs.
Sell NIFTY 5900, 5800 and 5750.


If NIFTY goes below 5850 then it is cause of concern. And then better exit PUT Sell contracts. Technically one should see some bounce back till 6100 in next four/five trading sessions.

ICICIBANK

It is near demand level. It might bounce back, if NIFTY supports.
Short ICICI Future at market price.
Buy 4 to 5 lots of 1040 CALL around 12.
Sell 960 PUT around 30-38
Take all positions simultaneously.

Risk is very low, about 3000/- and profit potential more than 10000/-, wait for 5/6 days before you exit also don't hold for more than 5/6 trading days.
Or exit if ICICI goes below 930/-

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Trades for next week

Hope readers of this blog had considerably good last month, those who could capture big moves in some of the lottery stocks could have earned fortune.

First week is for CALL and PUT sell.

NIFTY has turned down and there is no brainer to expect gap down opening on Monday for obvious reasons and news flows after market hours on Friday. FIIs continued selling.

With gap down opening one would able to find lower levels in NIFTY.

Sell NIFTY 5750 PUT between 22-26 on Monday.

Sell NIFTY 5800 PUT near 28-32 range.

It is unlikely NIFTY could see those levels before February 26, and one should able to pocket the premium.

But don't invest entire capital and preferably allocate 30-40% of the fund for these trades. If need be one should able to average at later date. 

Also since this is smaller trading month than earlier one can sell some risky options.

IDBI

Sell 50 PUT in the range of 0.85-1.20.

IDBI bank is almost neat to its all time low and this is demand level, it might halt before it could show further down fall.

IDFC

Sell 110 CALL between 0.60-0.70. This could be very safe. Even if earlier up-trends IDFC struggled to cross 110-112 level.

In five lacs trading account 10 lots of NIFTY and two lots each of IDBI and IDFC should able to make trader richer by 15 to 17 thousand assuming profit booking before February 15.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take responsibility of your profit/loss