Update

No need to trade in this market everyday.
OI table does not provide any clear direction. Pharma and banking should be positive and capital goods stocks should not do too well, and it could be the theme of trading for next few days.
Traders are also calm due to vacation period. Next big movements could be expected only in next week.
We are holding all positions so far.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Trades for next 5-6 trading sessions

After reasonably good last month we have to set new trades for the month, without being over confident with the success in the fourth consecutive month.Markets are great levelers and over confidence, ego are perfect ingredients for recipe for failure. So in short, we have to forget successes, stick to trading discipline followed in last months and JUST DO IT AGAIN.

I personally could not capture bigger gains in many trades last month but I had no reason for complain as gains were much more than bank FD interest.

NIFTY:

NIFTY corrected from retracement level and there is still further scope for some downward moment.

One should have view on NIFTY to trade effectively in market.

My view is NIFTY might not go down too much below 8000 in January, at the same time crossing earlier high at least in first two weeks in January could be difficult for the NIFTY. 

Another big assumption and I must confess here, this is without any big study, and based on hearsay information is, oil prices will stabilize around 60 or even could start upward movement in January 2015!

Now look at OI analysis of NIFTY.

One can see presently 8400 is strong resistance and 8000 is very strong support.

Even on NIFTY chart, it is evident that NIFTY has strong support near 8050.

STOCKS:

Capital good stocks might not do well because generally their order book is full of orders from Gulf countries and due to crude oil pricing it could shrink.

Voltas could suffer due to lack of orders and might correct a bit. It has broken long time support line and now comfortably trading below cloud. See the volumes with which it has fallen on Thursday. 

Banking:

Banking stocks will merry. 

Axisbank:

Axis bank is moving in channel. If it breaks the channel, means if it crosses 505-507 it could zoom to 540.

Lot of long built up in Axisbank and short term trader should take advantage of that.

Aurobindo:

This stock is all set to touch 1250-1300, ie upper end of the channel, unless there are any authority (FDA) issues in January. Look at the volume with which it closed on Thursday.

ONGC:

If oil price stabilizes and if Government gave any indication of disinvestment, ONGC has a potential to go near 400 in January. See MACD cross over.

Based on this background our trades for next 5-6 trading sessions are as follows:

1. Sell NIFTY 8300 PUT 4 lots

2. Sell NIFTY 8500 CALL 4 lots

3, Sell VOLTAS 250 CALL between 8-10

This should credit your account by about 25000/-

4. Buy AXISBANK 500 CALL around 14-16

5. Buy AUROPHARMA (Aurobindo) 1120 CALL around 35-45
6. Buy ONGC 360 CALL

I will update trades regularly, but to start with one should enter in all 6 trades at the same time. 

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Buy NIFTY 8300 PUT around 5-7 and buy ONGC CALL

This has been stated several times earlier, but entire uptrend from 5100 (August 2013) to 8640 in last 14 months is FED driven. Indian indices bounced back every time based Bernanke's comments in past and now dancing on tune of Janet Yellen.

NIFTY is entering in to supply zone near 8360-8370 and one shallow correction can be expected.

ONGC is in news and it is set to cross 365-370 in next couple of days.

Based on this one can take following trades.

Buy 8300 NIFTY PUTs in multiple lots around 5-7
Buy 360 ONGC CALL around 3/-

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss. 

Look for shorting opportunity if NIFTY goes to 8350

FIIs are selling. Recovery in oil may not be good for "achhe din".  This rally could halt at around 8300-8370, which is about 50-61.8% retracement from 8626.
If NIFTY reaches there (8300-8370) it is advisable to buy PUTs.
Only three days are left for December expiry, there is no point in doing anything silly and lose money.
Just stay calm. Look for shorting opportunity (ie buy 8300 PUTs) if NIFTY goes to 8350.

 Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Lottery Trade: DLF

FED helped rally. 7980-8010 was strong support and was literally the last support before possible big fall and NIFTY respected that support.
Worrisome part is FIIs are selling continuously and DIIs are buying in this new rally. Normally this does not happen, it is other way round. But who knows, perhaps this time DIIs know more than FIIs.

Historically we have seen Bank NIFTY goes up for couple of days after each FOMC meeting. So tomorrow could be the last day for up move and this time rally could be short lived if FIIs don't buy even tomorrow.
But if FIIs start buying again, one can see 8800 levels before budget.
As an investor one should buy with SL 7900.

Update:
Book profit in AXISBANK 490 CALL

DLF:
High beta stock like DLF is not moving along with NIFTY. Something seems to be wrong with DLF. If NIFTY corrects next week, DLF would touch 110-115.
If your profit earned this month permits, then DLF could become a good lottery trade.
Buy DLF 125 PUT between 1-1.25.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

AXISBANK

Book profit in 8100 PUT if not booked earlier today.
Now holding

1. Apollotyre CALL and 
2. TATAMOTORS CALL

Everything depends upon Crude price now. If it goes up, NIFTY would go up. Somehow there is lot of unrest among traders looking at Crude oil prices.
Perhaps strong hands will intervene now and prices of oil will be stabilized around $60/b and stock markets' charts around the world would mimic oil prices chart.

Most of the stocks are at lower levels and at support level. India would be by and large beneficiary of lower crude oil prices and our indices would recover faster than others.
Anyway as per chart 7980-8010 is good support zone and our strong upward movement will continue.

Look at OI of 8050 and 8000. Smart option traders were convinced that NIFTY will not go down below 8000 before December expiry.

Axisbank looks good.
If one has earned substantial profit this month, then buy 490 CALL of AXISBANK between 2.50-3.00. It has formed hammer pattern and it is clearly bullish.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Only update, no new trades.

Hold NIFTY PUTs
Book profit in TATAMOTORS CALL Sell contract.
Hold Apollotyre 240 CALL, don't average to reduce the cost

Tomorrow again could be replica of  today, ie gap down opening and closing near day's high. WIP was zero, everyone has started expecting rate cut. Good for BN today. Perhaps nothing will happen after actual rate cut next year but anxiety of rate cut could take NIFTY up to 8600 in January/February 2015.
However, in short term  all looks negative.  Trade deficit has widened. Rupee is depreciating. It indicates some inflation is creeping in system and rate cut could be on card but may not happen immediately.

Global markets are negative and could be indicative of mini-recession.
It is better to book profit and sit on cash for sometime. One can see very strong resistance around 8300.

In short, no new trades. One can add NIFTY PUTs for this week and keep booking profits at regular intervals.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.
                  

Update and strategies for next week

We are holding only Apollotyre CALL and booked profit in all other trades. Good month so far, nothing extraordinary though but descent 6/7% profit in month so far.

IIP is not good, inflation is good.
No clear signal by economy in which direction it is moving. Modi factor, oil factor are trying desperately to take NIFTY in north direction but ground realities depriving traders and investors to pump in lot of money.

NIFTY:
It is at support level, it could bounce back. See chart.

One can notice 8180-8200 is very strong support and if it breaks it will come down to 7920 in couple of weeks.
Highest OI at 8200 also suggests support around 8160.

TATAMOTORS:
This again is on support line. If it breaks it could go to 450-455, but if it doesn't, it can easily regain 530 layer.

Based on this information:
Trades could be as follows:

1. Buy TATAMOTORS 510 CALL around 7 (1 lot)
2. Sell TATAMOTORS 530 CALL around 3 (1 lot)
3. Buy NIFTY 8100 PUTs (100 quantity) around 20-25.

Maximum loss could be below 5000/- and this strategy has unlimited profit potential.
Ideally one should exit NIFTY lots one by one when it would show enough profit to cover TATAMOTORS investment.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

IDFC

Book profit in Bank of India.
Try and find opportunity tomorrow for profit booking in CAIRN.

IDFC:

IDFC is again at support level.
It has formed double top formation. It has bounced back from this level two times in last one month. Will it do it again?
Maybe this time, since indices are going down, double top pattern could work and IDFC will go to 147 before end of week.

Lot of additions in 155 and 160 CALLs indicate 155-160 level is sealed for some time. Not much addition in PUTs suggest there is still further downside possible.

Strategy:
Buy IDFC 150 PUT around 1.80-2.00.
Target 4.00-4.50 till weekend Or exit by weekend. Maximum loss could be less than Rs. 2000/-

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update

Book profit in BOI strategies.

NIFTY is consolidating. FIIs bought in huge quantities yesterday and still seem to be very confident of upside potential. If they continue to do so even today, then it is better to exit from all short positions.
Change in OI more than 630,000 in 8400 PUTs yesterday, shows very strong support. Also since 8400 PUT was being traded at around 50 by close of the day, suggests clearly smart option traders do not think NIFTY would go below 8350 in the short term.

Crude is going down. It might go further down too. Unfortunately our strategy based on crude is not paying off very well, ie buy Apollotyre and sell Cairn. I am holding Apollotyre CALL buy position and CAIRN sell position hoping movements in desired directions!

No new trades.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Bank of India

Book profit in last week's combined strategy. It is much more than 4%
Risk takers could exit from NIFTY CALL sell positions and Apollotyre CALL sell position, book profits there and wait for Apollotyre and Cairn call buy and put buy contracts respectively. Even if they hold only these two contracts, maximum loss could be Rs. 7000 to 8000/-. It is highly possible that either of this stock would move in desired direction to give handsome profit this week.

Bank of India

This stock is at supply level, most of the indicators in overbought zone.

One can see lot of unwinding of 290 and 300 CALLs on Friday and not much addition in 290 PUTs. There is possibility of downside on Monday. One can see levels up to 270-275 in coming weeks.

How to trade this view? There are below four probable options, one can choose based on his/her risk appetite.

1. Sell 290 CALL around 15 and buy 310 CALL around 4. At end of the month, if both contracts expire worthless then maximum profit could be Rs. 9000/- else there could be maximum loss potential of Rs. 9000/-!!
2. Buy 290 PUT around 7/-, maximum loss could be Rs. 7000/-
3. Buy 290 PUT around 7/-, sell 280 PUT around Rs. 4/-; Maximum profit 7000/- and maximum loss 3000/-
4. Sell Future with strict SL 310-312.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss