TATAMOTORS

Though most of lead indicators down, FII sold after long time, global cues are possitive.
US markets are up, dollar index is down, Rupee is perfectly at it support level. This all could ensure NIFTY trade in green during at least initial hour/two.

TATAMOTORS
The stock went up in spite of adverse market conditions. It closed near day's high.
Sell TATAMOTOR 380 CALL between 13.50-14.00. Very soon it will face strong resistance of 394. It could be difficult for TATAMOTORS to cross 394 before expiry. Option table will ensure it will stay between 380-400.
More it closes near 380 profit in this trade could be more.

Low risk trade could sell TATAMOTORS 390 CALL around 6.50.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

No new trade tomorrow

Today we know reason why option traders were adding 6000 PUTs even if market was declining. Iran news was out after market hours on Friday. Always keep an eye on option table during last week, it mostly gives correct idea about future direction. All those who kept on selling PUTs had made money. Today they are adding 6100 PUTs and will make sure tomorrow market stays much above 6100.
FIIs were buying all along. US dollar index was going down. All these indicators were pointing towards up-move. However, as a general trend, Indian markets are over reacting nowadays. I had never expected such a big up move today and I guess nor did many.

If market goes above 6200 tomorrow, there could be further upside otherwise market will consolidate in this (6100-6150)  region till expiry. Perhaps euphoria of Iran news will stay for two more days. Normally if market had to correct, it would have corrected after news broke, it did not happen. NIFTY waited for sometime and followed flag pattern. So I think clearly there is some more upside.

Double top pattern on NIFTY chart is invalidated and it is now more than 100% certain that NIFTY will not close below 6000 before expiry.

No new trades for tomorrow.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

POWERGRID

NIFTY is bouncing time and again from 5970-5980 levels. It went up three times in last 6 trading sessions from 5970-5980. This has become psychological level and traders are confident that NIFTY is going to go up from these lows. Please note, in spite of lot of selling happened from recent top, traders are selling 6000 CALLs. This is surprising as normally when NIFTY falls one would logically see unwinding of CALLs  which are ATM. This is not happening this time and hence there could be some bounce back to 6100 levels very soon.

PCR is in oversold region.

Dollar index has fallen and very soon it might go sub-eighty levels. This will help Rupee to appreciate for some time and this could reflect in upward movement of NIFTY.

Exit CALL sell positions if any. Book profit.

POWERGRID

This is one option trade which noone should miss and enter in to the trade before market makers start looking at it.
This contract has all ingredients in place to show 20/30 up-move before this month's expiry. It is very cheap also presently. It is at lower band of Bollinger. It will try to move up from lower band. RSI is below 30 on 9 D chart. CCI is oversold and most importantly in falling market on Friday stock was solid and in fact went up with high volumes. This 93-95 is demand level and stock went down only once in last three years below this level. .

Buy 95 CALL between 0.40-0.70, this could give very good returns if stock crosses 100 in next four days.
Target 3.9/4.5.

Set limit order as this contract is not very liquid.

This stock is good for medium term buy too with 3/6 month horizon, if it crosses 101 very soon it can reach 114/115 levels.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

DISHTV

NIFTY daily chart shows double top pattern. There could be first indication of working of this pattern if NIFTY closes below 5970 tomorrow. If this pattern works then NIFTY could go down by another 200/220 points in next 5/6 trading sessions. Pattern target 5730. So keep shorting NIFTY with 30/40 point SL in future if NIFTY goes below 5965/5970 in cash.

However, PCR is in oversold zone and very high open interest at 6000 PUT will ensure gap up opening of at least 20/25 points tomorrow. Whether NIFTY will stay above 6040 or no, will be decided as usual by Rupee movement. Tomorrow is last trading day for the week and if Rupee slides and if European markets open in red, our NIFTY will go down till 5935 region.
Close above 6050 would temporarily invalidate double top pattern formation and NIFTY might restart northward movement.

DISHTV

DISHTV has also shown a double top pattern on daily chart. Hence if NIFTY goes down, DISHTV should follow.
Playing for double top pattern, buy DISHTV 50 PUT around 0.20/0.30. For further decline stock should close below 52 tomorrow. A small investment of Rs 800/1200 could fetch huge return if pattern works and DISHTV closes around 49 within next couple of trading sessions. The PUT option of 50 will be around 1.2/1.3 for profit booking. Risk takers can hold till expiry.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Lottery trades

NIFTY has taken support at crucial level today.
It can bounce back from this level again within no time. If it opens above 6140 and crosses 6160, very soon it will reach new highs. In spite of today's sharp fall FIIs bought in cash and future segment.
Just watch Rupee movement before market opens tomorrow, if Rupee is down market will be down and vice versa.
However, if NIFTY goes below 6110 do not let go opportunity to short NIFTY future with SL of 30/40 points.Or immediately buy multiple lots of 6100 PUTs and keep booking profit at regular intervals with trailing SL or hold 6100 PUTs till NIFTY crosses 6160 in spot.

It is very easy to lose money in this kind of market. So secure profit you have earned so far by selling CALL options, and do take the risk only if your profit gained (so far in) this month permits you to do these trades.

AXISBANK:
Book profit in AXISBK 1150 CALL at around 10/11. It has strong support near 1070/1080 in cash. If it goes near 1085 in cash, exit call option and book profit.

Book profit in JP ASSOCAT CALL sell contract.

Lottery trades:
KARNATAKA BANK
Buy KTKBANK 95 PUT around 0.50/0.60.
If market falls, PSU banks will lead downfall for sure and KTKBANK has no support till it reaches 75-80 range. It is moving in contracting tangle. If it closes below 97 it can fall very sharply. One can hope this would happen during next 6 trading sessions!

IDFC
IDFC is in channel, to break the channel, it must close below 101. But since this is lottery trade, one can buy 100 PUT at around .90/1.00.
If IDFC goes below 101, it has a potential to slide down up to 88.

These two stocks are worth trading and do have potential to fetch good profit if market continues to move down. But based on high liquidity, election boom, I don't think market has too downside potential. Maybe I am biased and could go wrong in assessment as there is huge unwinding of 6000 PUT today!

But since FIIs are buying we also should have one buy trade for lottery.

TATASTEEL
Buy 400 CALL of TATASTEEL at 2.30/2.50.

Total investment in all lottery trades will be approximately 5000/-. But mind you this is lottery, you will lose entire 5000 in next six trading sessions. But even if one trade clicks among these three, you will be in the money.

I repeat, if your profits for the month permit to take these trades then only do enter in these contracts otherwise in trading, money saved is money gained!

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Axisbank

Sell Axisbank 1150 CALL @ 22

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

RELINFRA and JP ASSOCIAT

There is high likelihood that market stayed sideways today to prepare big 70/80 points movement tomorrow. In fact there is not any trigger for market to go up or even down. But 6200 PUTs are being sold, FIIs are buying in cash and this will ensure market will stay above 6200 (or at least will not go below 6152/6154 as because 6200 PUT is being traded at around 46-48). So very slowly market will reach to next resistance level of 6260/6280.

TATAMOTORS
Book profit in 390 CALL around 7/7.5

Reliance:
Book profit in Reliance 800 PUT

Relinfra:
Sell Relinfra 460 CALL around 2/2.20

JP ASSOCIAT
Sell  JP Associate 52.50 CALL at 1.10/1.20

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Tatamotors

Sell Tatamotors 390 CALL @ 12.20

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Hold for next trade till NIFTY crosses 6260

Entire seven day loss could be covered in just three trading sessions!
Do not short in this market at least for another 70/75 points rise.
Many times this happens nowadays due to public holiday in India. There is lot of foreign money presently flowing in Indian equity. Tons of money is pumped in on Indian public holiday in SGXNIFTY and as a result our NIFTY opens with substantial gap up. Then one sees buying continues throughout the day.

FII bought huge today and DII sold. Only FIIs are making money by toying our markets. There is no retail participation. When retail will start participating market will fall and domestic investor could be strangled in bull trap.
Don't buy any bluechip stock in cash segment.


Also Rupee is supporting, today it appreciated nearly 1.3% and helped NIFTY movement. If Rupee strengthens further  NIFTY Spot will reach to 6260/6270 level by end of the day. About 80% retracement from last fall will complete at around 6260 and if market has to correct, then it will correct from these levels.


NIFTY 6300 CALL will be in the range of 57/63 at that time.
Sell NIFTY 6300 CALL only if you get it above 60. This will be very safe. Even if NIFTY goes beyond 6360 before expiry, it will close around 6300 and one will able to keep  the premium.

Those who want to take lesser risk sell 6400 CALL only if you get it above 25.
This is very safe and one can sell as many 6400 CALL (only if you get at 25) and enjoy low risk income.

Update on short straddle:
Book profit in NIFTY 5750 PUT and average 6250 CALL throughout the day tomorrow.

Buy FSL in cash at current level.
Buy TVS Motors in cash at current levels with six to nine months view for at least 20% more trading upside.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

RELINFRA

Tomorrow is perfect day again for gap up opening. We might see this time and again now till FIIs are playing with our markets. They saw some downside and bought huge in all segments on Friday.
As usual they will take again this rally higher by another 100/150 points.
Do not short in this market unless NIFTY closes below 6050 on closing basis. Lot of addition in open interest of 6000 PUT again. But PCR is still below 1. However, SGXNIFTY and US indices are up and these things will ensure gap up opening.

Normally nowadays markets do trade flat or come down after gap up opening. Tomorrow, it could be function of movement in Indian Rupee. If Rupee appreciates NIFTY will cross 6150 easily. Buy NIFTY future if NIFTY spot crosses 6140 in morning session.

Buy RELINFRA 420 CALL between 8.80-9.00.
Ensure you are buying in an up-trend. It closed at 9.80. but due to long weekend tomorrow morning it could open at 8/8.20. Then buy while it is going up in 8.80-9.00 zone and do not enter when it is coming down towards the 8.80-9.00 range.
Target 11.2/13.80
SL 4.7 for tomorrow.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Short straddle

NIFTY down again today.
It has reached at crucial level. This was earlier resistance level, could this turn in to support, only time will tell.
Some positive events happened after market closed today.
RBI governor gave some relief to Rupee and it went up during last one hour of trade.
SGX NIFTY went up.
Dollar index is marginal negative.
Sunpharma, Cipla, M&M gave expected set of numbers.

On back of this if NIFTY crosses 6030 in cash, exit all bear positions. Still traders would like to dump money in India for very quick gains. This is trade's market. Closing above 6050 could possibly see new highs in near future. If Rupee opens strong tomorrow morning based on market friendly announcement by RBI governor, stay away from shorting anything.

For bears,
PCR is 0.99, generally PCR slides down fast up to o.8 from 1 and NIFTY falls at least by 50/60 points from such levels.
Lot of unwinding of 6000 CALL during last session of the trade.
Though FIIs are buying in cash they are selling futures and hedging their bets. If Rupee still continues to depreciate one can stay with bear positions and carry till Monday.


let us be very safe and secure profit gained so far.
Short straddle.
Sell 900 Reliance CALL between 4.5-5 and Sell 800 Reliance PUT between 3 and 3.50
Delta of this strategy is 2.6 %.
Do this in two lots each.
As long as delta is less than 17-18 you are safe. If it crosses 18, please prepare to exit from one lot each.
This is very safe and 9 out of 10 times options will end worthless and you will able to keep premium.

Sell 6250 NIFTY CALL around 18 and sell 5750 NIFTY PUT around 14.
Delta of this strategy today is 4.6%. This also do in two lots.

About Rs. 100,000 margin investment should yield more than Rs. 3000 (including brokerage)  in just two weeks. This is about 40% return on investment.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update and JP Associate

Tomorrow could be the most important day for bears. If everything goes good for bears then market is set for at least 50 points gap down opening tomorrow.
Dow is down till this time, Singapore NIFTY is down after knowing IIP data, Gold is up, Rupee is in down trend, seven consecutive days are in down trend for NIFTY, PCR is about 1 and NIFTY today crossed very crucial 6020 level.
All eyes will be on SBI, if it does not stop at 1652/1645 levels tomorrow, it could see 1580 post results.

In spite of all negativity FIIs turned buyers today in cash and as well as in futures. So smart money started shifting focus, Lot of brave traders are adding open interest in 6000 PUTs, indicate expiry for this month could be above 6000. Perhaps there is an expectation that our FM will able to bring lot more liquidity from FIIs in near future by relaxing norms/FEMA rules for them and this will again take NIFTY towards 6300.

But being a trader look for tomorrow.
Hold Ambuja Cement.
Book loss in TCS call contract, it is not performing as expected. Exit at around 18-20 levels.
Book profit in SBI after result. if it goes down till 1580 post result 1600 PUT would touch 65/66. It is advisable to book profit in one lot near 47/48, by then in cash SBI would be about 1615/1620. If SBI gives surprise, market would get boost and shall change the trend.
Book profit in DLF.

JP ASSOCIAT
Buy 40 PUT @ 0.80 Target 1.25/1.40

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

AMBUJACEM

It is nice to be on correct side of the trend. Most of the trades in this month are in the right direction. TCS gave chance of profit booking today which we missed, hope to get one more chance tomorrow, keep tight SL of 18, book profit at 50. Rupee went down during closing hours today and this should assist stock specific very positive move in TCS tomorrow.

If NIFTY opens around 6060/65 or below then it could reach 6020/6025.
It is interesting to note in spite of consecutive 5 trading declines in index, there is lot of addition in 6000 and 6100 PE.  This clearly means very soon up-move is expected. Otherwise one would have seen unwinding at 6000/6100 levels today in option table. If there is unwinding during first two hours of trade tomorrow, then NIFTY would go much below 5900 in next couple of days. This is an important indicator to follow.

FIIs are shorting in future but they are still buying in cash.

Keep booking profits in PUT buy contracts. One can hold SBI till Wednesday afternoon, ie till results. Exit DLF, HCLTECH and book profit if not done today.

AMBUJACEM

Buy 170 PUT around 2.50-2.75. Target 3.40/6.10/7.25, in two/three days. SL 1.25

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

SBI, HCLTECH, TCS, DLF and Orchid Chemicals

After good accumulation of funds in trading account by selling CALLs in last two weeks, it is time now to free arms by buying some CALL and PUTs to see whether we can increase our profit. Use strict SL so that profit generated so far is protected.

Few things happened after market closure on Friday.
Tatamotors declared  good set of numbers backed by JLR.
Maharashtra Bank announced that it is not in good shape.
US job data had unexpectedly surged and US markets responded very positively to this booster dose to their economy. This could be a good indication that tapering would happen soon, cheap money will go away. Fed does not have to feed economy with zero rate interest funds. Dollar index gone up by almost half a percentage after US job data, hence Rupee would depreciate on Monday and may cross 63 if dollar strengthens further. Singapore NIFTY did not show any upward movement after job surge information. But one can not predict what our NIFTY would do tomorrow. NIFTY would have strong resistance between 6180-6190 levels, even if there is gap up opening.
If it crosses 6190 in cash then it is advisable to book loss in NIFTY bear positions, if NIFTY goes below 6120 in opening session then look for further downside of 50/60 points quickly. However, the highest open interest at 6000 PUT will ensure, for short term NIFTY does not go below 6000 for sure. So one can expect bounce back from near 6000 levels.  

SBI results are due on Wednesday next week and will impact NIFTY and BankNIFTY. If results (or NPA) are not good, one may see unwinding of 6000 PUT and there could be real down fall in NIFTY after Wednesday.

SBI
Very low risk strategy, if NPA situation is not good, again SBI may dip to 1670 which is about 78% retracement from earlier top. If it breaks this level on result day, then it could go to 1450 very soon. Keeping an eye on this probable scenario one can risk Rs. 2500 and buy 1600 PUT between 20-23 and look for target above 50 on Wednesday afternoon.
Risk averse can but 1550 PUT @ 12 by spending only Rs. 1500/- Target 31/-

HCLTECH:
Buy HCLTECH 1160 CALL around 15-16. Target 23. SL 9

TCS:
Hold TCS 2160 CALL with SL 18

DLF
Buy DLF 140 PUT between 3-3.50, target 5.20/5.25


ORCHID CHEMICALS:
Buy Orchid Chemicals in cash around 54-55 and hold for three to six months for target 75-80.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

NIFTY and TCS

NIFTY tried hard not close in red on third day but could not do so on rumor of S &P downgrade. ECB cut rate and market may bounce back tomorrow on expectations of more liquidity. Surprisingly in spite of rate cut by ECB, till this time US markets are down and Singapore NIFTY is in slight red.
On this background one can sell NIFTY with strict SL 6245 in spot. Or buy 6100 PUTs and say in trade until NIFTY crosses 6245. Keep booking profit at every 20 points by adjusting trailing SL.

TCS
Rupee started going down again and if it crosses 63/$, IT companies would benefit. This is no brainer.
Buy TCS 2150 CALL option of November expiry around 40-43.
Lot size is now 125 so total investment could be around 5000/-
Book profit at 52/53 levels.


Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Some more CALL sell contracts

After 7th August NIFTY has not fallen for three consecutive days. It may not do it tomorrow. All ingredients are in place for an  up-move.
ECB has shown signs of no rate cut and European and US markets went up. NIFTY is on long time support trend-line. SGX NIFTY has already crossed 6275.
Keep an eye on Rupee before market opens at 9 AM. If it goes near 63 tomorrow, NIFTY could see lower levels. It has to go below 6190 in cash for clear break-out towards 6000.

Book profit in SBI put option.
Keep booking profits in CALL sell contracts of November expiration.
If NIFTY goes near 6300 again tomorrow, sell some more NIFTY calls of November expiry.

Sell TATAMOTORS 440 CALL at Rs. 5/5.50. If market goes up, one would able to get this level.
Sell Ranbaxy 470 CALL at around 4.50/5.00
Sell RELINFRA 540 CALL at around Rs. 2.00/2.20


Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

State Bank

SBIN

Buy SBI 1850 PUT in the range of 70-75, Target 91. SL 62, Or hold till results, normally SBI stock declines on result day on NPA issue!

Book profit in 6100 CALL sell contract and 6400 CALL sell contract of November expiry. Market may bounce back, you may see buying at every lower level in this kind of market.
Do not sell NIFTY till it goes below 6218-6220 in cash.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Sell CALLs in first week.

It seems market will keep going up and but now investment could shift to other stocks which had not performed so far. Investors will look for cost effective opportunities now.

Exit Axisbank 1250 CALL sold around 48, book profit.

Sell some CALLs in first week

LT
Stock is in real bull run. It should face very strong resistance in the range of 1020/1030.
Sell 1080 CALL of November expiry in the range of 6.80-8.00

Axisbank
It will be extremely difficult for Axisbank to cross 1400 before November expiry.
Sell Axisbank 1400 CALL at around Rs. 7/-

Tatamotors
Sell Tatamotors 440 CALL between 3.50-3.80.
Tatamotors has strong trend-line resistance around 430/- so average with some more lots if it goes near 430/-

Relinfra:
This stock has done phenomenally well in last two months. It gave breakout on Friday and should move up. However, it might not go up by another 100 Rupees in next 22 trading sessions.

Sell Relinfra 540 CALL at around 2.50/-
Average some more lots if you get at higher level during the week.

If you could sell one lot each of above four stocks, approximately margin money required would be about Rs. 150,000/-

However, about Rs. 10000/- to Rs 11000/- will be credited to your account tomorrow. This will be reasonably safe investment as there is less than 10% chance that these stocks will reach to respective levels. This means there is 90% chance that one would make at least Rs. 10000/- (excluding brokerage) on Rs. 150,000 investment.
This will be more than 7 to 8 times the fix deposit interest income in banks.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Muhurat trading

There is high likelihood that NIFTY will cross all time high on Diwali day. Just hold all positions for tomorrow, if NIFTY continues north movement started in October.
However, do not forget to book profit if in case NIFTY corrects after touching all time high in 6100 CALL sell of November expiry, 6500 CALL sell of December expiry and in AXIS BANK CALL sell of November expiry contracts.
If NIFTY really has to climb further, technically it should first consolidate, move sideways near 6100-6350 region for sometime. And if that has to happen one could see some correction a least of 2 to 3% in coming weeks.

Though there is no retail participation, expectations are very high about up move as option premiums are really very costly. You would have noticed 6500 NIFTY December CALL is being traded at 120/-. This simply means there is high expectation (based on open interest) by market movers that by December market could easily cross 6620!

So don't hold any bear positions till NIFTY goes below 6180/6190 convincingly.
Risk takers can keep buying NIFTY future with small 20 point SL and make money by adjusting trailing SL. But for this one must be having constant eye on trading bolt and not suitable for part time trading activity.

For Muhurat trade, one can buy small quantities of high beta stocks like Tatamotors, JP Associates, IDFC, RCOM and DLF in cash. This should give quick 8-10% upside if NIFTY really moves towards 6500.
One can exit all stocks if NIFTY goes below 6180.



Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

NIFTY and AXISBANK CALL sell contracts

Last month was exceptionally bad. Portfolio strategy miserably failed and we could never recover from that. Moreover, sell on rise strategy did not work at all throughout the month.
We missed opportunity to make money in this stock specific and NIFTY specific rally.

Now to salvage  the situation, first someone should pay us, who can that be other than market.

NIFTY is near all time high and could keep going higher too. No one will able to predict. Markets move on three things 1. Liquidity 2. Sentiments and 3. Fundamentals. There is lot of liquidity. Due to tapering delay it will continue for some time, I don't think sentiments are bullish of Indian investors (FIIs are buying with very short term perspective) and fundamentals are far away from where they should be.

It is seen that after FOMC meeting global markets are going down and investors are only coming to India. This can not be the truth and hence healthy correction is due.

NIFTY
Sell  two lots (or in multiple of two lots)  of NIFTY 6100 CALL between 270-290 of November expiry. This will provide coverage till NIFTY crosses 6370-6390 and this is reasonably safe.

Sell  two lots (or in multiple of two lots)  of NIFTY 6500 CALL between 110-120 of December expiry. This will provide coverage till NIFTY crosses 6610-6620 and this is reasonably safe too.

Moreover these four lots will credit your account by Rs 36000/-.to Rs. 39000/- tomorrow! And at least for time being trading account will look good!!
We can book profit in one lot and then continue with other lot till respective expiry dates, if market condition favors us.

Axisbank:
Sell AXISBANK 1250 Call between 45-50.This will also add another 11000/- in your account tomorrow.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss