Update

No need to trade in this market everyday.
OI table does not provide any clear direction. Pharma and banking should be positive and capital goods stocks should not do too well, and it could be the theme of trading for next few days.
Traders are also calm due to vacation period. Next big movements could be expected only in next week.
We are holding all positions so far.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Trades for next 5-6 trading sessions

After reasonably good last month we have to set new trades for the month, without being over confident with the success in the fourth consecutive month.Markets are great levelers and over confidence, ego are perfect ingredients for recipe for failure. So in short, we have to forget successes, stick to trading discipline followed in last months and JUST DO IT AGAIN.

I personally could not capture bigger gains in many trades last month but I had no reason for complain as gains were much more than bank FD interest.

NIFTY:

NIFTY corrected from retracement level and there is still further scope for some downward moment.

One should have view on NIFTY to trade effectively in market.

My view is NIFTY might not go down too much below 8000 in January, at the same time crossing earlier high at least in first two weeks in January could be difficult for the NIFTY. 

Another big assumption and I must confess here, this is without any big study, and based on hearsay information is, oil prices will stabilize around 60 or even could start upward movement in January 2015!

Now look at OI analysis of NIFTY.

One can see presently 8400 is strong resistance and 8000 is very strong support.

Even on NIFTY chart, it is evident that NIFTY has strong support near 8050.

STOCKS:

Capital good stocks might not do well because generally their order book is full of orders from Gulf countries and due to crude oil pricing it could shrink.

Voltas could suffer due to lack of orders and might correct a bit. It has broken long time support line and now comfortably trading below cloud. See the volumes with which it has fallen on Thursday. 

Banking:

Banking stocks will merry. 

Axisbank:

Axis bank is moving in channel. If it breaks the channel, means if it crosses 505-507 it could zoom to 540.

Lot of long built up in Axisbank and short term trader should take advantage of that.

Aurobindo:

This stock is all set to touch 1250-1300, ie upper end of the channel, unless there are any authority (FDA) issues in January. Look at the volume with which it closed on Thursday.

ONGC:

If oil price stabilizes and if Government gave any indication of disinvestment, ONGC has a potential to go near 400 in January. See MACD cross over.

Based on this background our trades for next 5-6 trading sessions are as follows:

1. Sell NIFTY 8300 PUT 4 lots

2. Sell NIFTY 8500 CALL 4 lots

3, Sell VOLTAS 250 CALL between 8-10

This should credit your account by about 25000/-

4. Buy AXISBANK 500 CALL around 14-16

5. Buy AUROPHARMA (Aurobindo) 1120 CALL around 35-45
6. Buy ONGC 360 CALL

I will update trades regularly, but to start with one should enter in all 6 trades at the same time. 

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Buy NIFTY 8300 PUT around 5-7 and buy ONGC CALL

This has been stated several times earlier, but entire uptrend from 5100 (August 2013) to 8640 in last 14 months is FED driven. Indian indices bounced back every time based Bernanke's comments in past and now dancing on tune of Janet Yellen.

NIFTY is entering in to supply zone near 8360-8370 and one shallow correction can be expected.

ONGC is in news and it is set to cross 365-370 in next couple of days.

Based on this one can take following trades.

Buy 8300 NIFTY PUTs in multiple lots around 5-7
Buy 360 ONGC CALL around 3/-

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss. 

Look for shorting opportunity if NIFTY goes to 8350

FIIs are selling. Recovery in oil may not be good for "achhe din".  This rally could halt at around 8300-8370, which is about 50-61.8% retracement from 8626.
If NIFTY reaches there (8300-8370) it is advisable to buy PUTs.
Only three days are left for December expiry, there is no point in doing anything silly and lose money.
Just stay calm. Look for shorting opportunity (ie buy 8300 PUTs) if NIFTY goes to 8350.

 Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Lottery Trade: DLF

FED helped rally. 7980-8010 was strong support and was literally the last support before possible big fall and NIFTY respected that support.
Worrisome part is FIIs are selling continuously and DIIs are buying in this new rally. Normally this does not happen, it is other way round. But who knows, perhaps this time DIIs know more than FIIs.

Historically we have seen Bank NIFTY goes up for couple of days after each FOMC meeting. So tomorrow could be the last day for up move and this time rally could be short lived if FIIs don't buy even tomorrow.
But if FIIs start buying again, one can see 8800 levels before budget.
As an investor one should buy with SL 7900.

Update:
Book profit in AXISBANK 490 CALL

DLF:
High beta stock like DLF is not moving along with NIFTY. Something seems to be wrong with DLF. If NIFTY corrects next week, DLF would touch 110-115.
If your profit earned this month permits, then DLF could become a good lottery trade.
Buy DLF 125 PUT between 1-1.25.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

AXISBANK

Book profit in 8100 PUT if not booked earlier today.
Now holding

1. Apollotyre CALL and 
2. TATAMOTORS CALL

Everything depends upon Crude price now. If it goes up, NIFTY would go up. Somehow there is lot of unrest among traders looking at Crude oil prices.
Perhaps strong hands will intervene now and prices of oil will be stabilized around $60/b and stock markets' charts around the world would mimic oil prices chart.

Most of the stocks are at lower levels and at support level. India would be by and large beneficiary of lower crude oil prices and our indices would recover faster than others.
Anyway as per chart 7980-8010 is good support zone and our strong upward movement will continue.

Look at OI of 8050 and 8000. Smart option traders were convinced that NIFTY will not go down below 8000 before December expiry.

Axisbank looks good.
If one has earned substantial profit this month, then buy 490 CALL of AXISBANK between 2.50-3.00. It has formed hammer pattern and it is clearly bullish.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Only update, no new trades.

Hold NIFTY PUTs
Book profit in TATAMOTORS CALL Sell contract.
Hold Apollotyre 240 CALL, don't average to reduce the cost

Tomorrow again could be replica of  today, ie gap down opening and closing near day's high. WIP was zero, everyone has started expecting rate cut. Good for BN today. Perhaps nothing will happen after actual rate cut next year but anxiety of rate cut could take NIFTY up to 8600 in January/February 2015.
However, in short term  all looks negative.  Trade deficit has widened. Rupee is depreciating. It indicates some inflation is creeping in system and rate cut could be on card but may not happen immediately.

Global markets are negative and could be indicative of mini-recession.
It is better to book profit and sit on cash for sometime. One can see very strong resistance around 8300.

In short, no new trades. One can add NIFTY PUTs for this week and keep booking profits at regular intervals.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.
                  

Update and strategies for next week

We are holding only Apollotyre CALL and booked profit in all other trades. Good month so far, nothing extraordinary though but descent 6/7% profit in month so far.

IIP is not good, inflation is good.
No clear signal by economy in which direction it is moving. Modi factor, oil factor are trying desperately to take NIFTY in north direction but ground realities depriving traders and investors to pump in lot of money.

NIFTY:
It is at support level, it could bounce back. See chart.

One can notice 8180-8200 is very strong support and if it breaks it will come down to 7920 in couple of weeks.
Highest OI at 8200 also suggests support around 8160.

TATAMOTORS:
This again is on support line. If it breaks it could go to 450-455, but if it doesn't, it can easily regain 530 layer.

Based on this information:
Trades could be as follows:

1. Buy TATAMOTORS 510 CALL around 7 (1 lot)
2. Sell TATAMOTORS 530 CALL around 3 (1 lot)
3. Buy NIFTY 8100 PUTs (100 quantity) around 20-25.

Maximum loss could be below 5000/- and this strategy has unlimited profit potential.
Ideally one should exit NIFTY lots one by one when it would show enough profit to cover TATAMOTORS investment.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

IDFC

Book profit in Bank of India.
Try and find opportunity tomorrow for profit booking in CAIRN.

IDFC:

IDFC is again at support level.
It has formed double top formation. It has bounced back from this level two times in last one month. Will it do it again?
Maybe this time, since indices are going down, double top pattern could work and IDFC will go to 147 before end of week.

Lot of additions in 155 and 160 CALLs indicate 155-160 level is sealed for some time. Not much addition in PUTs suggest there is still further downside possible.

Strategy:
Buy IDFC 150 PUT around 1.80-2.00.
Target 4.00-4.50 till weekend Or exit by weekend. Maximum loss could be less than Rs. 2000/-

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update

Book profit in BOI strategies.

NIFTY is consolidating. FIIs bought in huge quantities yesterday and still seem to be very confident of upside potential. If they continue to do so even today, then it is better to exit from all short positions.
Change in OI more than 630,000 in 8400 PUTs yesterday, shows very strong support. Also since 8400 PUT was being traded at around 50 by close of the day, suggests clearly smart option traders do not think NIFTY would go below 8350 in the short term.

Crude is going down. It might go further down too. Unfortunately our strategy based on crude is not paying off very well, ie buy Apollotyre and sell Cairn. I am holding Apollotyre CALL buy position and CAIRN sell position hoping movements in desired directions!

No new trades.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Bank of India

Book profit in last week's combined strategy. It is much more than 4%
Risk takers could exit from NIFTY CALL sell positions and Apollotyre CALL sell position, book profits there and wait for Apollotyre and Cairn call buy and put buy contracts respectively. Even if they hold only these two contracts, maximum loss could be Rs. 7000 to 8000/-. It is highly possible that either of this stock would move in desired direction to give handsome profit this week.

Bank of India

This stock is at supply level, most of the indicators in overbought zone.

One can see lot of unwinding of 290 and 300 CALLs on Friday and not much addition in 290 PUTs. There is possibility of downside on Monday. One can see levels up to 270-275 in coming weeks.

How to trade this view? There are below four probable options, one can choose based on his/her risk appetite.

1. Sell 290 CALL around 15 and buy 310 CALL around 4. At end of the month, if both contracts expire worthless then maximum profit could be Rs. 9000/- else there could be maximum loss potential of Rs. 9000/-!!
2. Buy 290 PUT around 7/-, maximum loss could be Rs. 7000/-
3. Buy 290 PUT around 7/-, sell 280 PUT around Rs. 4/-; Maximum profit 7000/- and maximum loss 3000/-
4. Sell Future with strict SL 310-312.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Strategy for next 5-6 trading sessions

Everyday new high. Last one and half month NIFTY rose more than 850 points. Practically there is no change in country, this is height of optimism backed by global economical changes.
Indian economy reported growth 5.3%, during last quarter, it is still categorized by media as the best, much better than expected (less than 5% was the expectation)  and country is on right track under Modi's regime. In fact last year in 2013 under UPA in same quarter growth was 5.2%. We are no where near 6%, manufacturing is going down. However, inflation is easing because of crude oil prices and there could be case for RBI Governor for rate cut on December 02.

There seems to lot of liquidity in market and RBI is mopping Rupee to curb the liquidity. There is huge Forex inflow by FIIs. To keep exchange rate in control against dollar, RBI has to buy Rupee. Hence, if economic growth in last quarter is as per RBI's target too, on December 2nd Mr. Raghuraman Rajan will not lower interest rate and would add to the liquidity,

Due to this sudden drop in oil demand globally and southward movement of crude prices, very soon deflation could be major problem before many developed countries than inflation. So these investors in developed countries would find safe heaven like India to invest. But our markets are not cheap. Every good stock is more than at least 20 P/E multiple and day by day investors would find it difficult to buy good stock at reasonable valuation.

NIFTY could cross 8850 in near future if it crosses 8640 in next couple of days. It should be fresh breakout. I still can not access graphs and few other technical aspects yet, but it is fair to assume, NIFTY will find some resistance near 8630-8650 level and oil marketing companies (and those companies use oil as key raw material) will continue to benefit from lowering oil prices. If there is rate cut, banking stocks will rally for sure.

So assumptions for next 5-6 trading sessions:
NIFTY will be resisted for sometime around 8640.

1. No rate cut by RBI but very dovish commentary will keep traders sentiments high.
2. Oil marketing companies and those companies who use crude oil as raw material will do well. Apollo Tyre could be one such company, crude and rubber both going down and with an improvement in auto-sell numbers, this stock could reach to 260. 
3. Cairn India will struggle for some time as global oil prices are down and exploration will be uneconomical for them, this is backed by some loan issue to their parent group.

Based on this assumptions:
Trades could be as follows:
1) Sell four NIFTY 8600 CALLs at around 130-140.
2) Buy Cain India 260 PUT at around 7-8.
3) Buy Apollotyre 240 CALL around 6-7
4) Sell Apollotyre 260 CALL around 2-3

Total loss should not be more than Rs. 12000/- on EOD basis. Work with Rs. 12000/- as stop loss for the strategy.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Strategy for the last trading week of the month.

Lot of positive sentiments driving investors and traders crazy. Stocks are available at multiple times of their book values and still people are buying.

Lottery trade JPASSOCIAT did not move at all.
This week I do not have an access to usual graphs and technical analysis which I would normally do before writing the blog.

However, it is very clear that rate cut is on cards. It has to happen sooner or later. China did it in-spite of problems in their economy to boost the growth.
It is also very clear that rate sensitives will be benefited by this move and traders will align their bets based on this assumption.

Keeping this thing in mind, here is the trade setup

Sell four lots of 8600 CALL of December expiration and Sell four lots of 8300 PUT of  December expiration. Total inflow will be around Rs. 13000/- and delta will be negative.
To neutralize the delta buy YESBANK 700 CALL around 10-13 and Buy RANBAXY 600 PUT around 4-5 of November expiration.

Monitor trade such that maximum loss in all four trades should not be more than 7500/- (on EOD basis), which is about 5% of your total investment (about  Rs.150,000) in these 4 trades.

As a thumb rule, in any strategy loss should not be more than 5% of total investment. Book profit in trade if total profit is above 10000-15000/- including costs.  
Exit the trades on Thursday anyway, unless NIFTY is trading around same level as that of today.

In short, enter in to below 4 trades:
Sell 4 lots of 8600 NIFTY CALLs of December expiration.
Sell 4 lots of 8300 NIFTY PUTs of December expiration
Buy 1 lot of YESBANK 700 CALL of November expiration.
BUY 1 lot of RANBAXY 600 PUT of November expiration


Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Lottery trade: JPASSOCIAT

After a descent profit so far, one can think of lottery trade for the month.

JP ASSOCIATE

NIFTY had not moved so much but JP went up more than 8%. This could be purely news based, about which, I must confess, I have no clue.
This is purely based on chart analysis.

I could see many positives here than negative.
Stock is now trading above 50 day moving average after long time.Time and again this stock is taking trend-line support and moving up in spite of not so encouraging quarterly results.
Last year, in last week of October stock was trading around same price range,one fine day crossed 50 d moving average and shot up to 48-49!
Will it do it again this year? I don't know but if your monthly profit supports then it is worth investing small amount in this lottery trade.

What are negatives? It is touching ichimoku cloud at lower end, it could be a reversal point. It is trading in overbought region. But it has already entered in to the cloud and being traded at overbought region for long time by now.

So it is worth taking risk.
Buy JPASSOCIAT 37.5 CALL near 0.60.
Investment of Rs. 4800-5000 could provide very good profit.

To recover this cost one can sell four lots NIFTY 8450 CALLs. NIFTY is trading at all time low IV, below 10. But still it is enough to get money from the market and not investing anything from the pocket.

If one decides to calculate delta of this strategy it will be positive.

Nevertheless, if NIFTY crosses 8450 on EOD basis then exit from NIFTY CALL sell positions. Once NIFTY crosses 8450, it could take another 100 point stride in no time. My stomach feeling is such a jump is long due. NIFTY is there where it was before 8 trading sessions and this is unbelievable under present bullish scenario. It must bounce, unless it fills downside gap around 8183, which is unlikely in present circumstances.

See chart attached:

In short, recommendation for next week:
Buy JPASSOCIAT 37.5 CALL near 0.60.
Sell four lots of 8450 CALLs near Rs. 50. And if your profit so far is good enough to absorb JP CALL cost then don't even think of selling NIFTY CALLs to cover the cost of JP.

If you are entering in to both trades, JP and NIFTY then always compare total profit/loss in the strategy and decide exit point.
Nowadays, I am not following stock market daily and my next post will be by next weekend.

BTW JP looks good even for long term perspective. Downside is very minimum and stock is trading much below it's book value. It could be good stock from long term investment perspective.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

Buy OTM PUTs of Ranbaxy, if your profit (gained so far) permits

Book profit in AXISBANK and Ranbaxy strategy.
Reduce NIFTY and INFY sell lots. NIFTY 8300 CALL sell contracts are in profit and INFY is in marginal loss.
NIFTY is continuing up trend and lot of buying by FII everyday will ensure NIFTY crossing 8450 in very near future.
Hold DishTV, It has a potential to cross 65 in cash by weekend. Anyway the trade so far is in profit, it cold go up on Monday as it closed at the highest level on Friday, backed by Sri Lanka news.
There is reasonable profit above 15 K, if someone has entered in all strategies at the same time. It is better to take profit of the table.

Due to business travel and coupled with technical issues with my computer, I may not be regular in writing the post and personally am very light on trades this month. Holding only DishTV CALL buy contract along with NIFTY 8300 CALL sell positions. That too planning to exit soon and sit on cash this month.

One can buy RANBAXY 620 PUT. Since Ranbaxy lost exclusivity, very soon stock might settle near 600. There was suddenly lot of buying with slight decrease in price on Friday, even after the adverse news. This is a typical bull market scenario and stock price absorbed all negativity to reach new highs. It might not sustain if investors take more realistic view from Monday. Now PUTs are cheap and one can make small investment in Ranbaxy PUT buying, if his/her profit permits.

Expect my posts on weekends, though I will try to inform readers if I decide to enter in to any new strategy.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

New strategies for next 7-8 trading sessions.

NIFTY has moved phonemically in very short time and many would have missed this rally. Lot of volatility was expected and hence I stayed away from usual CALL sell strategies.

After memorable last month (thanks to DLF),  strategies are bit differently this month.
Let us analyse new strategy practically everyday and book profit/loss at end of the week or decide further course of action based on market direction then,

One should enter in all six trades together.
We should write CALLs and PUTs, gain some premium and then buy CALLs and PUTs to maintain credit balance in trading account at least to start with.

Like everybody, my general view is up, as per OI, NIFTY entered in new series with very positive bias, but I personally don't think NIFTY will go above 8490-8500 in this series.

Lot of CALLs written at higher level. Maybe some profit booking could be seen at higher level and NIFTY could see 8200 in  next 7-8 trading sessions.

 
But individual stocks could move up to find new highs. IT stocks could show slow momentum. Though Rupee is depreciating, very soon it could come near 60/- and some profit booking could be seen in IT stocks.

INFOSYS:

It is near resistance line.
May give breakout and could zoom to 4100 but should hold 4150 for temporary period.

The highest OI at 4100 and 4200 should act as strong resistance.

In short one can sell INFY 4100 CALL around 72-80 to gain premium about 9300/-
and sell NIFTY 8300 CALLs around 140/-, One can sell total 5 CALLs to gain premium about 17000/-
So you trading account will be credited by Rs. 28000-29000/-

In this money we should find stocks which could outperform NIFTY.

DISHTV:

DISHTV Stock is not doing too much in past several month. In true sense never participated in the rally.
Maybe it will do this in the last leg of the rally and has a potential to touch 65-66.

Buy DISHTV 60 CALL around 1.40

AXISBANK:
It was moving in channel for some time and gave clear breakout on October 31. Has huge upside potential.

Buy AXISBANK 450 CALL around 7.50-8.00

Ranbaxy:
Ranbaxy management is known for surprises for their dealings with USFDA. In esomprazole, to avail 180 days exclusivity they must able to launch on November 25. If they don't it could be substantial loss to Ranbaxy, analysts are expecting it could be in the range of USD 300-400 mio, which could be about 10% of total Ranbaxy's business. Drop in share price if Ranbaxy could not succeed in launching esomprazole, could be around 20% including sentimental blow from traders.
But if Ranbaxy could launch, in this bull market stock will go up to 725-730 on November 26.
As an option trader one should have positions on both sides and must hold till November 26.

Buy Ranbaxy 650 CALL around 14/- and buy Ranbaxy 6200 PUT around 12.

In short trades should be as follows.

1. Sell INFY 4100 CALL, 1 lot
2. SELL NIFTY 8300 CALL, 5 lots
3. Buy DISHTV 60 CALL, 1 lot
4. BUY AXISBANK 450 CALL, 1 lot
5. Buy RANBAXY 620 PUT, 1 lot
6. Buy RANBAXY 650 CALL, 1 lot 

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss




         

Buy OTM PUTs in LUPIN

Buy LUPIN 1300 PUT of November expiration around 15-18.
Hold for a week.

It has fallen with huge volume, further downside is possible if it breaks support line.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

IDFC

Lottery trade
Buy IDFC 155 CALL around 0.20-0.30. Target 1.00

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Buy PUTs in NIFTY 7900 and 7800 contracts

DLF turned out to be trade of the year. Mega-profit!!

Those who were holding 135 PUTs of DLF are dip in the money! Real Diwali. We closed most of our positions for the month and will not take any major positions till next week.

Election volatility, anxiety will be over by then.
FIIs are continuously selling for last two weeks.
Macro data is much better this month than last month. In fact in last month, even though macro data was bad NIFTY achieved new highs. Hence it is clear, so far FIIs do not care about micro-macro-Modi factor etc.
Low crude prices improving macro data across the world. In US inflation and budget deficit are at their multi-year best and US will be considered one of the best economies among developed economies.

For bulls tomorrow 7912 is an important number. Do not buy anything unless NIFTY crosses 7912 in spot. See below graph and blue dot.

In option table there are more reds than greens, indicating smart option traders are not very positive on NIFTY at the moment. But still 7800 is seems to be strong support.

Buy PUTs in NIFTY 7900 and 7800 contracts for tomorrow. One can hold too, if risk appetite and profit of this month's permit, NIFTY could slide down to 7650 post Diwali.
Keep booking small profits.
Hold bank of India 230 PUT, if not booked profit earlier.

Next post will be on October 21.
Till then happy trading and enjoy Diwali preparations.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

No new trades

FIIs are selling and DII are buying. FIIs sold huge in cash and F & O. NIFTY went up by about 100 points from the bottom. Are DIIs knowing more than FIIs this time?
Level 7820-7840 again proved to be important. But still, do not buy till NIFTY spot crosses 7940. Let us see whether FIIs turn net buyers tomorrow and then take buy positions.

Option table clearly indicates predominantly  CALL buying and PUT selling, and this makes a case for further upside.

Support at 7800 and resistance at 8200.
No new trades. Hold bear positions till NIFTY convincingly closes above 7940 on EOD basis.

TATAMOTORS:
It showed  hammer pattern today. A bullish signal. If one sees follow up buying tomorrow and close above EOD today then exit the strategy at around EOD at cost or at small loss.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.

NIFTY, TATAMOTORS and APOLLOTYRES

NIFTY
FIIs are selling in huge quantities and DIIs are buying in equal quantities. NIFTY is not giving any direction. But fundamental rule in trading is one must have one view. Obviously one should be either bullish or bearish.

NIFTY is very near to support level ( 7840-7820), if it goes below 7800, one could see stiff downside till 7650. One could see reversal in short term down-trend from current level. However, one should not do any buying unless NIFTY crosses 7970-7975.  See chart.

In OI table one could see more of red spots than green. But still OI analysis is inconclusive. IVs of PUTs and CALLs have gone up. In percentage terms IVs of CALLs have gone up more than IVs of PUTs. It might indicate there is more CALL buying than PUT buying. From FII  data also it is clear, more than 2000 Cr worth options were traded on Friday and this number is at much higher side as compared numbers of recent past. But one should not read too much because it could lead to wrong conclusion unless NIFTY shows clear directional trend. Presently it is clear options are used for hedging by FIIs.

Among all this mixed cues, since bearish signals are more I would like to stay in bear camp.
Buy 7800 NIFTY PUTs.
Hold all bear positions such as BOI, DLF.

Tatamotors:
Tatamotors could go to 430 levels if it goes below ichimoku cloud and as a first step breaks Friday's low.
If it breaks Friday's low the one can set up bear spread strategy in Tatamotors.

Buy 470 PUT around 5.50 and Sell 460 PUT around 3.75.
Maximum loss per lot could be around 1750/- and maximum profit potential Rs. 8250/-

Apollotyres:
Bull spread strategy in Apollotyres.
This stock is recommended on all channels because rubber prices are at multi-year low. This stock gave break-out on Friday and all set for new highs.

Buy 230 CALL around 6/- and sell 240 CALL around 3.25. Maximum loss around 2750 and profit potential above Rs. 7000/-

 Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss. 

Auropharma 1000 CALL can be bought around 15

NIFTY went up by 100 points during the day but FIIs were net sellers and domestic institutions did most of the buying. This is not very comfortable situation for big up move.
Look at the below NIFTY chart. Unless, it goes above 7995 in spot, refrain yourself from buying anything and book profit in long positions.

Option table is giving contradictory signals but tilted clearly in favor of bulls.

However, follow up action is must.
One has to keep an eye on 8000 PUT contracts during first hour of trading for confirmation of up-trend, otherwise fall again towards 7840 is eminent. Or even it could go further down.
Yesterday option table gave at least some indication of reversal though I had not expected 100 points bounce back, but today though bulls have advantage, 7900 PUT is traded around Rs. 60/- suggesting again support around 7840.

Tomorrow if INFY results and commentary is good, NIFTY could see some momentum during morning session but it is important for NIFTY to held on above 7995.

Hold PUT positions,
Buy safe defensive stocks like Pharma.
Auropharma 1000 CALL can be bought around 15.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

If your risk appetite permits buy NIFTY Future with SL 7830 in cash.

NIFTY:
In spite of all global negativity NIFTY could manage to hold at reasonable level.
As per earlier EW count of mine, 7840 was very important number and NIFTY should not have gone below 7840 as per that count. However, at EOD, NIFTY could mange to close just above 7840, so though it is not technically correct to hold that count now, I would still maintain that count, till NIFTY convincingly closes below 7840 on EOD basis.

FIIs are selling but DIIs are buying and holding NIFTY above 7840.

This is very frustrating period for trading unless NIFTY goes below 7780 or goes above 7950. Hold your breathe till then.
Do not do very active trading unless NIFTY breaks on either side.

Lot of liquidation of 7800 PUTs and hence though strong support still around 7800 as per option table, there is high likelihood that NIFTY might eventually break 7800 level, if and only if, it goes below 7840. Smart option traders were not very confident of holding 7840 in spite of spurt during last hour of trade.

If your risk appetite permits, only for day trading,  buy NIFTY Future with SL 7830 in cash. Above 7855 (in cash), NIFTY could have some upside for sure. One should use this opportunity to exit longs. I think so because though OI of CALLs increased phenomenally there is considerable increase in IVs, it is an indication of some CALL buying by powerful hands! Book small profits as broad tone is still negative.

DLF:
It gave sharp bounce back today.
If it crosses 151 in cash, better to book loss or exit at cost in DLF strategy.

BOI
Book profit in 230 PUT contract when BOI goes near 226 in cash.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Update

NIFTY

General tone is negative.
FIIs are net sellers in cash and F & O.
Will NIFTY go near 7700?
See NIFTY chart. Double top pattern had failed many times earlier in many stocks and indices. This would invariably happen in bull market. If it works this time then only NIFTY could reach 7700.

Option traders are also convinced about bearishness.
But notice lot of addition of 7800 PUT, which was trading around 73-74 at EOD. This means, according to option traders even in case of extreme bearishness also NIFTY might not go below 7726 in near future.

Hold NIFTY 7700 PUTs and book profit if NIFTY goes sub 7800 level.

DLF:
As per chart, very bearish. Next support around 136/130/126/ 120. But these are weak support levels.

But what was interesting today, a lot of PUT addition at 140 PUT and it is traded around Rs.5/-. So DLF might not go below 135 according to the smart option traders.
Book profit in DLF strategy when DLF would go near 136 in cash.

BOI
It should go below 221.
Next target could be 202.

OI table is also very bearish.

Part book if BOI touches Rs. 222-221 in cash and hold other lots till sub 210 level.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.