Wednesday, 23 July 2014

Lottery trade: Buy 7650 PUT around 9-10 or 7700 PUT around 15.

NIFTY is heading towards 8000. Very soon NIFTY 50 could become NIFTY 25!
FIIs are buying continuously in huge quantity.
Monsoon is improving.
Quarterly results are good.
And above all everybody seem to be convinced of 'acche din" ahead.

This month is good so far for our option trades.
One should have booked profit in all positions recommended so far.
Hold 8000 CALL of August expiration till NIFTY crosses 7920 in cash. This might not happen in next couple of weeks and we could get some breather.

Contra trade:
Contra trade always could give more profit. One could see huge profit booking on Friday and next week on Monday. NIFTY may not dip to 7450 level from where this rally started but could reach till 7600 to keep uptrend intact for the next series.

Logic of this thinking is as follows:
Now fewer counters are closing in green now.
Good results are already behind.
FIIs buying in cash is  decreasing every day and buying in future and options in huge quantity could indicate they are hedging their bets by going short in F & O.
Very high addition of OI in 7700 PUTs might not be all by PUT sellers as usual because end of series is approaching.  This could have been primarily driven by huge PUT buying by FIIs.
7810-7820 which is earlier top could act as good resistance for the series.

If NIFTY goes to 7810-7820 today, 7650 PUT will be very cheap around 10/-. It could be even more cheap at end of the trading hours or after 1 PM, when time value will go down further.
So enter in to lottery trade and book out on Monday.

Those who can afford more could buy 7700 PUT around 15-17.
But do invest only from profit gained this month. Don't over trade.
If your profit is not not significant enough, then don't enter in this trade at all.

 Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss



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