Anything can happen tomorrow. But there is high likelihood that RBI would do nothing with key rates.
Arguments for not changing or even lowering Repo.
Rupee has stabilized. If Rapo is lowered or kept same there will be lot of FII investment. More dollars will come in the market, demand for dollar will go down and Rupee will be strengthened. Import will become cheap and inflation will be controlled automatically.
New RBI Governor wants to be market friendly unlike earlier Governor. So there is very high possibility that RBI Governor does not do anything and in the best case scenario he will lower Repo with slight adjustments in MSF.
RBI could not control inflation in spite of all efforts. And now not curbing the interest rates will not help for the growth which is a paramount concern for the economy. When China is growing by 8.5 percent and so are the other competing economies, India can not stay behind with GDP growth of sub 5%. To boost investors confidence before the elections definitely rates will be cut and this could be the last credit policy before the announcement of election dates.
Market will cheer that. It is merely liquidity driven market. Every month NIFTY is giving 2 to 3% returns, hence till Fed declares tapering, this is ride on risk market. Trader's market. Every trader is buying on dips with small SL and all such trades are successful in recent past.
Buy NIFTY with SL 6040/6030.
Exit 6100 CALL sell contracts of October expiry.
Stay in bear positions of IDFC PUT, Coalindia PUT and Jindal Steel PUT.
Book profits in all other bear positions. Maybe one can see 100 points rally after RBI announcement at 11 AM tomorrow.
Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.
Arguments for not changing or even lowering Repo.
Rupee has stabilized. If Rapo is lowered or kept same there will be lot of FII investment. More dollars will come in the market, demand for dollar will go down and Rupee will be strengthened. Import will become cheap and inflation will be controlled automatically.
New RBI Governor wants to be market friendly unlike earlier Governor. So there is very high possibility that RBI Governor does not do anything and in the best case scenario he will lower Repo with slight adjustments in MSF.
RBI could not control inflation in spite of all efforts. And now not curbing the interest rates will not help for the growth which is a paramount concern for the economy. When China is growing by 8.5 percent and so are the other competing economies, India can not stay behind with GDP growth of sub 5%. To boost investors confidence before the elections definitely rates will be cut and this could be the last credit policy before the announcement of election dates.
Market will cheer that. It is merely liquidity driven market. Every month NIFTY is giving 2 to 3% returns, hence till Fed declares tapering, this is ride on risk market. Trader's market. Every trader is buying on dips with small SL and all such trades are successful in recent past.
Buy NIFTY with SL 6040/6030.
Exit 6100 CALL sell contracts of October expiry.
Stay in bear positions of IDFC PUT, Coalindia PUT and Jindal Steel PUT.
Book profits in all other bear positions. Maybe one can see 100 points rally after RBI announcement at 11 AM tomorrow.
Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.
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