NIFTY, Reliance and DLF

NIFTY is forming higher high on daily basis.
Japan visit of NAMO is one trigger, US visit could be another. Nobody is willing to hear any adverse news, no one is caring for SC judgement for coal allocations. All problems of our country have vanished and there is hope that whatever small issues such as inflation, decreasing IIP, supply scarcity, bank NPAs, current account deficit, unequal rain, rising dollar-falling rupee etc are remaining, those will be taken care of by this new Government.

But as a short term trader one should not try to read too much and worried about future. He should just ride on sentiments and liquidity, and he should learn to ignore fundamentals. This could be for investors who think for September 2015, 2016, not for us who are keen to anticipate what will happen in September 2014.


NIFTY

If NIFTY crosses 8000 mark on Monday, it could reach 8170 levels very soon. So plan your retracement trades accordingly.

Bull spread strategy in NIFTY
Buy 8100 CALL around 55 and sell 8200 CALL around 30.
Maximum loss would be Rs. 1250 and maximum profit potential could be around Rs. 3750. This is reasonably safe strategy and one should enter as many lots as possible and book profit as soon as one sees 2% gain.

It will be extremely difficult for NIFTY to cross 8300 before expiration so keep accumulating NIFTY 8300 CALL sell contracts starting from Rs. 20/-

Reliance:

It is in general uptrend!
There are various ways one can trade depending upon risk appetite.

Maybe new 3rd wave is staring, with 161% retracement target around 1065 in cash.
1) Buy Reliance future with SL 975 in cash. OR
2) Buy Reliance 1040 CALL around Rs. 13-15, Maximum loss Rs. 3750. Book profit around 25-27-35 within next 5-7 trading sessions or see for cash price reaching 1065 level to book profit  OR
3) Bull spread strategy:
Buy 1000 CALL around 30/- Sell 1060 CALL around 8/-; maximum loss Rs. 5500/- maximum profit around Rs. 9500/-

DLF:

DLF is in down trend. It is well set to go to 149-150

One can trade multiple ways.
1) buy 150 PUT around Rs. 1.50/-, maximum loss Rs. 3000/-
2) bear spread strategy: Buy 170 PUT around Rs. 5/- and sell 160 PUT around Rs. 2.75
Maximum loss 5200-5400/- maximum profit Rs. 15000/-
3) Sell future with SL 177 in cash.

One can even combine Reliance and DLF trades:
Buy Reliance 1000 CALL around 30 and buy DLF 170 PUT around Rs. 5/- Maximum loss Rs. 17500-18000/- but unlimited profit potential.
OR
Buy Reliance 1040 CALL around 13 and buy DLF 160 PUT around Rs. 2.75. Maximum loss Rs. 9500-10000/- , however, unlimited profit potential.


Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss



  

Traders with very high risk appetite could buy 7900 PUT around Rs.5/-

NIFTY in recent past always gone up by at least 80-100 points prior to long weekend. It gave Doji candle yesterday. It indicates confusion in traders mind.
NIFTY has consolidated during past four trading sessions and might cross 7980 today and close near 8000.
No good lottery trade. Especially this month is not good enough to invest in lottery trade. Most of the trades this month went wrong and hit SL.
Some of them were good, fetched descent  returns but not enough to close trading account in green.

So no new trade.
However,traders with very high risk appetite could buy 7900 PUT around Rs.5/-
Just Rs. 250/- investment has potential to give 5 fold return on expiry day if traders decide to do some profit booking at higher level post 2 pm.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss  

Buy 8200 CALLs of September expiration around 20-25. and 7600 PUT around 22-25 of September expiration.

NIFTY is all set for next 100 points move.
If it crosses 7990/8000 in next 2/3 days then chances of Wolfe Wave to take NIFTY to 7500 is almost nil.
Several shorts must be trapped in this unexpected bull run for last 10 trading days and one could see short covering and roll over today/tomorrow. It could take NIFTY to new high.

All bear theories have failed so far.
IVs are at all time low. No point in selling CALLs.

Buy 8200 CALLs of September expiration around 20-25. and 7600 PUT around 22-25 of September expiration in small quantity.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

One can take small risk by buying SBIN 2500 PUT around 20/-

NIFTY closed in red after many sessions. Perhaps it was minor reaction of market on bypoll results. But media management is worth noting here.National newspapers, TV, business websites and especially social media activists are not commenting about it.

Will NIFTY go further down?
It is difficult to answer.
There is merit in holding 7900 PUT though. NIFTY could see some more downside if EOD close below 7840. One must not forget wolfe wave theory target is sub 7500!

SBI

SBI is now at upper end of the channel. It could be bearish till it crosses, yesterday's high.
One can take small risk by buying SBIN 2500 PUT around 20/-, target for two days around 60.
In chart, SBIN again entered in to ichimoku cloud and could go to  S2 level which is around 2440 in couple of trading sessions.
A small 2000-2500 risk could fetch 100% profit. If market declines on expiry day, one can see 2300 level in SBIN, which is bottom of the channel and in that case option could go near Rs. 160-180-200!!!

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Risk taker should buy 7900 PUTs

NIFTY started moving in channel again. It is at upper end of channel and chances that it could cross 8000 in couple of trading sessions.
EOD close below 7840 is must for bears.
One can go long with SL 7840.
FIIs are buying heavily. Yellen did not do anything and easy money will keep flowing to India for some more time it seems at least till end of 2014 and traders are hedging their bets by buying options.

No point in doing any new trade today.
This 400 points rally in 10 trading sessions always formed higher tops, gave all time close every alternate day, backed by FIIs buying, lot of Euphoria in market. But no point in buying PUTs because chances that they will end up worthless in this bull run and selling CALLs might not be profitable due to very low IV.

Risk taker could buy 7900 PUTs, it will be cheap with gap-up opening.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

buy NIFTY 8000 CALL around Rs. 15-16 and 7750 NIFTY PUT around Rs. 10/-

Book profit in SBI CALL

NIFTY is moving in pattern, forms flag patter periodically. It could give new breakout any day. Maybe traders will wait today for Fed announcement due tonight, but it seems more or less everybody is convinced about usual dovish stand by FED and  pumping in money in equity markets all over the world.
If Yellen does not do anything and decides to follow Bernanke's foot prints, markets will cheer that and on Monday, NIFTY will cross 8050 otherwise it could again retest 7600 before expiry, prior to it's further up-move. (See chart).
EOD close below 7840-7850 could indicate start of a mild down-trend.

To trade this view,
buy NIFTY 8000 CALL around 15-16 and 7750 PUT around 10. A small investment of Rs. 1200 could fetch descent profit.

Disclaimer: This blog does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss

Buy 2450 SBIN CALL between 22-24

A perfect consolidation day today. It was expected. After seven consecutive higher lows, it formed lower low, though one must not forget today also it formed higher high.
There is lot of liquidity.
Strength in Rupee, drop in oil price will ignore Fed worry and higher US index (above 82) for sure.And NIFTY will use all these as impetus for at least 100 points up-move tomorrow.
For past few days IT and banking did not participate in rally and tomorrow could be their day. There is rumor that Government has approved holding company structure for banks. If this is true then Bank NIFTY will go up by at least 300 points and NIFTY by at least 70-80 points.
No weakness.
Stay long.

SBIN
buy 2450 SBIN CALL between 22-24. Just Rs. 3000 investment could fetch good returns.

NIFTY

See second breakout (blue spot) and stay long for target 7975-7985 for tomorrow. Buy NIFTY on every decline tomorrow, or simply buy it till the time it holds 7825 till expiration this month.
It seems there will be gap up opening tomorrow and one can buy immediately after day open with target 7975 and SL should be today's (Wednesday) low around 7865.
In bull market 7865-7860 could be a good support and should not be broken on EOD basis till expiration this month.

 Disclaimer: This block does not take any responsibility of your profit/loss.